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There's been a lot of chatter on the Right that says that this year is directly comparable to 1980, that, like Ronald Reagan, Mitt Romney is going to defeat the modern Jimmy Carter analogue, Barack Obama, in an electoral landslide.
Of course the polls suggest otherwise, they say, because the polls are biased or, like most scientific endeavors, flawed. Jimmy Carter, they say, lead Ronald Reagan right up to the election, and see how well he did in the end?
Former Clinton-turned-Republican pollster Dick Morris says as much here:
Morris could be right - Romney could win. I don't think Obama has it in the bag quite yet. But when he compares this election year to 1980, he's wrong. Or lying.
This is what really happened in 1980.
What is interesting about the polls in 1980 is that they really weren't that far off the final outcome. Reagan on average led all summer, sometimes by margins of 20 points or more. The spoiler was Independent Republican John Anderson, a third party candidate, who was polling 9-10% in the final polls and who got 7% in the General. Indeed the 'eve of poll' polls were also underestimating Carter. DMI gave him 34% and CSR 36% though they got the actual vote right giving Regan an 11% and a 10% lead
The other respected pollster was Harris who had Reagan up 5 when Gallup only had him up 3. The odd one out was actually Gallup. They had Reagan leading by 1% on 30th October when a clutch of 6 polls had an average lead of 4% (Harris had 5%, DMI had 10%) On 26th October Gallup had Carter 3 points ahead when Harris had Reagan ahead by 3 points.
The pollster that got it right was DMI. It had Reagan up 8% back in mid-October, had him fall back to 7% by late October but had him correctly ahead by 10-11 points in the final push.
Indeed Gallup was the most pro-Carter pollster in that final push. When the 'gold standard' gets it wrong then it's not the gold standard.
For the record, looking at the eve of election polls it appears that Reagan got 2-3 points from declared Anderson voters (who were either going to vote for Reagan all along or genuinely switched) and Carter won about 63% of undecided voters.
Of course the polls suggest otherwise, they say, because the polls are biased or, like most scientific endeavors, flawed. Jimmy Carter, they say, lead Ronald Reagan right up to the election, and see how well he did in the end?
Former Clinton-turned-Republican pollster Dick Morris says as much here:
Morris could be right - Romney could win. I don't think Obama has it in the bag quite yet. But when he compares this election year to 1980, he's wrong. Or lying.
This is what really happened in 1980.
What is interesting about the polls in 1980 is that they really weren't that far off the final outcome. Reagan on average led all summer, sometimes by margins of 20 points or more. The spoiler was Independent Republican John Anderson, a third party candidate, who was polling 9-10% in the final polls and who got 7% in the General. Indeed the 'eve of poll' polls were also underestimating Carter. DMI gave him 34% and CSR 36% though they got the actual vote right giving Regan an 11% and a 10% lead
The other respected pollster was Harris who had Reagan up 5 when Gallup only had him up 3. The odd one out was actually Gallup. They had Reagan leading by 1% on 30th October when a clutch of 6 polls had an average lead of 4% (Harris had 5%, DMI had 10%) On 26th October Gallup had Carter 3 points ahead when Harris had Reagan ahead by 3 points.
The pollster that got it right was DMI. It had Reagan up 8% back in mid-October, had him fall back to 7% by late October but had him correctly ahead by 10-11 points in the final push.
Indeed Gallup was the most pro-Carter pollster in that final push. When the 'gold standard' gets it wrong then it's not the gold standard.
For the record, looking at the eve of election polls it appears that Reagan got 2-3 points from declared Anderson voters (who were either going to vote for Reagan all along or genuinely switched) and Carter won about 63% of undecided voters.
