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Unskewed Polling [W:536]

AdamT said:
I suggest you read the article and find out. That's why I posted the link.

In the meantime, you might want to drop by Costco and pick up a case of tissues for election day.
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...and hand lotion.

Oh wait, the tissues are for his tears? NVM.
 
AdamT said:
I suggest you read the article and find out. That's why I posted the link.

In the meantime, you might want to drop by Costco and pick up a case of tissues for election day.
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I have read the polls, was around during the Reagan/Carter election and here is what I remember

In September 1980, Gallup had President Carter up by 4 percentage points over some former Hollywood actor named Ronald Reagan
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In addition here are other polls as late as October that show Carter winning

Articles: Wouldn't Touch It with a Ten-Foot Poll

The support for Obama is quite frustrating as results don't matter.
 
AdamT said:
Yeah, speaking of Congressional elections ... have you noticed that the Dems have been picking up major ground in Senate races? Republicans who were once so cocky about taking back the Senate are now backpedalling like clowns on unicycles.
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No I havent noticed that, because its nonsense,..

by the way did you see Pennsy? Romney is going to take that also
 
betaiso said:
i hate to agree but AdamT is right, the election is lost
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There is a bright spot in all of this. Reasonble and sane people will be taking the party back after the election is over.
 
Conservative said:
I have read the polls, was around during the Reagan/Carter election and here is what I remember

In addition here are other polls as late as October that show Carter winning

Articles: Wouldn't Touch It with a Ten-Foot Poll

The support for Obama is quite frustrating as results don't matter.
Click to expand...

In fact with 45 days remaining Reagan had a 3.4% lead in composite national polls. So much for that theory!
 
AdamT said:
Yeah, speaking of Congressional elections ... have you noticed that the Dems have been picking up major ground in Senate races? Republicans who were once so cocky about taking back the Senate are now backpedalling like clowns on unicycles.
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Oh My... this is going to leave a mark...

Two percentage points separate President Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney in a state poll conducted for the Tribune-Review, even though the campaigns largely are ignoring Pennsylvania and concentrating on other battlegrounds.

Obama polled 47 percent to Romney's 45 percent among likely Pennsylvania voters, with 6 percent of voters undecided and 44 days until Election Day, according to the survey by Susquehanna Polling & Research. The survey of 800 voters, conducted Sept. 18-20, has a margin of error of 3.46 percentage points.

The poll showed most voters are disappointed with the country’s direction, evenly split on whether Obama deserves another term and hesitant to back Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts. Fifty-one percent of the state’s voters approve of Obama’s job performance.

snip

Poll: The presidential race is tight in Pennsylvania | TribLIVE
 
danarhea said:
There is a bright spot in all of this. Reasonble and sane people will be taking the party back after the election is over.
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The far right are going to point to Mitt's moderate record and double down.
 
Travis007 said:
No I havent noticed that, because its nonsense,..

by the way did you see Pennsy? Romney is going to take that also
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Wow, you should really watch the election returns with friends and/or family so there will be someone there to hold you ... and wrestle the gun from your hand.

Obama is up 8% in Pennsylvania according to the RCP composite. Rasumussen's latest poll gives Obama a 12% lead. :lol:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html
 
Conservative said:
I believe the American electorate will actually pay attention to the Obama results and fire him on November 6. Those that don't pay attention to results really are too stupid to vote IMO .
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Didn't stop you from voting for GWB now did it?
 
Conservative said:
I have read the polls, was around during the Reagan/Carter election and here is what I remember
In September 1980, Gallup had President Carter up by 4 percentage points over some former Hollywood actor named Ronald Reagan[/url]
In addition here are other polls as late as October that show Carter winning

Articles: Wouldn't Touch It with a Ten-Foot Poll

The support for Obama is quite frustrating as results don't matter.
Click to expand...
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That is why you should probably follow the link, since Silver tends not to cherry pick polls to work backwards to a predetermined end, and he uses actual data sources rather than some foggy 30+ year-old memory.

Also, if you were there you should recall the third candidate that was polling near 10% John Anderson. Well maybe you don't, he often gets overlooked. A quite centerist GOP candidate whose polling support ended up breaking heavily to Reagan rather than Carter when the votes were cast. There is nothing like that in this election.

P.S. To spoil the surprise, because lets face it you don't have the courage to follow the link and read it, the only election where polling this far out from the election didn't nail the popular vote winner was the infamous Dewey vs Truman. A good deal of that anomaly was created by a shift in communication/demographics combo that polling firms didn't realize and that heavily favoured Dewey in the polling. There might be something like that this year, the switch by households away from landline telephones to cell phones only. But that favours Romney in the polling, not Obama.

EDIT: Anyway, enough poking the bear. I'll put it in my calendar to drop by here on Nov 8th to see how you are doing. :)
 
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AdamT said:
Wow, you should really watch the election returns with friends and/or family so there will be someone there to hold you ... and wrestle the gun from your hand.

Obama is up 8% in Pennsylvania according to the RCP composite. Rasumussen's latest poll gives Obama a 12% lead. :lol:
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keep on telling yourself it will be ok in Obamaland... I repeat Obama will be destroyed in a Landslide.. it wont be close..unless the Dems can get more of the dead to vote...

News Flash... NJ is in play also..
 
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Travis007 said:
keep on telling yourself it will be ok in Obamaland... I repeat Obama will be destroyed in a Landslide.. it wont be close..unless the Dems can get more the dead to vote...

News Flash... NJ is in play also..
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Mkay, well I guess things must be very different on your world. Here on earth, things are looking pretty grim for Snr. Romney. Betting sites and fivethirtyeight put his odds of winning between 20-25%.
 
AdamT said:
In fact with 45 days remaining Reagan had a 3.4% lead in composite national polls. So much for that theory!
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You should read the article before making statements like yours
 
AdamT said:
Mkay, well I guess things must be very different on your world. Here on earth, things are looking pretty grim for Snr. Romney. Betting sites and fivethirtyeight put his odds of winning between 20-25%.
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again,, Obama will be destroyed.. its all joke like the report of 18,000 showing up to his Wisc rally, when the place wasnt filled and it holds 5,000... you tell me the Mid terms didn't happen and I was told the Dems were going to romp that day also..

go bet your money.. bet all of it.. go for it

now you tell me whats reality
 
Travis007 said:
again,, Obama will be destroyed.. its all joke like the report of 18,000 showing up to his Wisc rally, when the place wasnt filled and it holds 5,000... you tell me the Mid terms didn't happen and I was told the Dems were going to romp that day also..

go bet your money.. bet all of it.. go for it

now you tell me whats reality
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I put $500 on the election three years ago. Pretty good bet, IMO!
 
disneydude said:
Didn't stop you from voting for GWB now did it?
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When Bush ran for re-election he didn't have 23 million under employed including 14 million unemployed/discouraged workers nor did he add 5.4 trillion to the national debt. His GDP in 2004 was 3.5%, Obama's is 1.7%. Bush didn't have 48 million on food stamps and 46 million below the poverty level. Since Bush was such a disaster in your world why would you vote for someone with a worse record?
 
Conservative said:
When Bush ran for re-election he didn't have 23 million under employed including 14 million unemployed/discouraged workers nor did he add 5.4 trillion to the national debt. His GDP in 2004 was 3.5%, Obama's is 1.7%. Bush didn't have 48 million on food stamps and 46 million below the poverty level. Since Bush was such a disaster in your world why would you vote for someone with a worse record?
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His RELATIVE performance was worse than Obama's, as we've gone over countless times.
 
AdamT said:
I put $500 on the election three years ago. Pretty good bet, IMO!
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bet it all ...Obama is a winner... bet the house..
 
Dwight said:
That is why you should probably follow the link, since Silver tends not to cherry pick polls to work backwards to a predetermined end, and he uses actual data sources rather than some foggy 30+ year-old memory.

Also, if you were there you should recall the third candidate that was polling near 10% John Anderson. Well maybe you don't, he often gets overlooked. A quite centerist GOP candidate whose polling support ended up breaking heavily to Reagan rather than Carter when the votes were cast. There is nothing like that in this election.

P.S. To spoil the surprise, because lets face it you don't have the courage to follow the link and read it, the only election where polling this far out from the election didn't nail the popular vote winner was the infamous Dewey vs Truman. A good deal of that anomaly was created by a shift in communication/demographics combo that polling firms didn't realize and that heavily favoured Dewey in the polling. There might be something like that this year, the switch by households away from landline telephones to cell phones only. But that favours Romney in the polling, not Obama.

EDIT: Anyway, enough poking the bear. I'll put it in my calendar to drop by here on Nov 8th to see how you are doing. :)
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There is one poll that matters, the one on November 6. If there are more Americans that have no problem with the Obama record and believe we can afford four more years of that record then he will win. If there are more like me who believe America cannot afford four more years of high unemployment, high debt, low economic growth, massive govt. dependence, and crony capitalism he will and should lose
 
IMO, the GOP nominated the wrong Mormon, it's the other one that President Obama was worried about.
Will Mitt try again in 2016?
 
pbrauer said:
IMO, the GOP nominated the wrong Mormon, it's the other one that President Obama was worried about.
Will Mitt try again in 2016?
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Mitt is done if he loses this time around. He couldn't run for dog catcher
 
pbrauer said:
IMO, the GOP nominated the wrong Mormon, it's the other one that President Obama was worried about.
Will Mitt try again in 2016?
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Yep, he will run for re-election in 2016. I understand liberal logic, being a Morman is bad but running up 5.4 trillion dollars in debt, having 23 million unemployed/under employed/discouraged workers, less than 2% GDP growth, record numbers on food stamps and 46 million below the poverty level, promotion of class warfare and envy with no plan to improve this mess deserves four more years? That is liberal logic and demands for a massive govt. central economy.
 
AdamT said:
Mitt is done if he loses this time around. He couldn't run for dog catcher
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Personally, I think he is done NOW, this race is Obama's to lose. Barring any mishaps between now and Nov 6, he'll be leaving office Jan 20, 2017. :thumbs:
 
pbrauer said:
Personally, I think he is done NOW, this race is Obama's to lose. Barring any mishaps between now and Nov 6, he'll be leaving office Jan 20, 2017. :thumbs:
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Yep, with a 20 trillion dollar debt which obviously you have no problem with. We have a problem with liberalism in this country that liberals cannot comprehend that results matter and we cannot afford four more years of Obama.
 
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