Gallup: Race Tightens

Today Gallup has them tied 47-47 among registered voters.


The President's approval is also negative (though within the margin of error) at 46 to 48%. Traditionally incumbents have gotten a percentage of the vote that roughly mirrors their approval going in to the election.

So Romney wins red states big and loses the ones that count.

Loki97 said:

So Romney wins red states big and loses the ones that count.

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Secret video release fires up the base and alienates the middle.

Despite this being another in a long line of polls that is really getting tiresom, it doesn't take into account how american elections work. the reality is that Romney may have a higher percentage of the popular vote due to higher ratios of supporters in red states. But since most states are winner take all, he needs to take the battleground states to matter. If he has 90 percent of texas voters it doesn't make any difference than if he had 60 percent of texas voters. It all works out to the same number of electorate votes.

but keep on grasping at those straws. I think you have a little over a month left to cling onto the last desperate hope you have of him actually taking the states he needs.

Pew does not see the race tightening, they see among others the following:

Obama's support stronger and more positive, 68% of supports of Obama support him strongly, 31% supports him only moderately and 1% didn't know. Romney's has 56% who strongly support him, 43% only moderately support him and 1% didn't know.

Also the reasons for voting is very different, 74% vote for Obama out of support for him, 22% vote for Obama because they are against Romney and 3% do not know. With Romney only 45% vote for him because they support him, 52% choose Romney because they want to vote against Obama and 3% do not know.

Also asked where things like:

Which candidate connects well with ordinary Americans, 66% said Obama and 23% said Romney (O+43)
Which candidate takes consistent positions on issues 50% % said Obama and 34% said Romney (O+16)
Which candidate is willing to take unpopular stand 52% said Obama and 37% said Romney (O+15)
Which candidate good judgment in a crisis 51% said Obama and 37% said Romney (O+14)
Which candidate honest and truthful 48% said Obama and 34% said Romney (O+14)
Which candidate a strong leader 51% said Obama and 38% said Romney (O+13)
Which candidate shares my values 50% said Obama and 40% said Romney (O+10)
Which candidate can get things done 45% said Obama and 41% said Romney (O+4)

Issues:
Which candidate would do the best job of making decisions on foreign policy 53% said Obama and 38% said Romney (O+15)
Which candidate would do the best job of dealing with health care 52% said Obama and 39% said Romney (O+13)
Which candidate would do the best job of dealing with Medicare 51% said Obama and 38% said Romney (O+13)
Which candidate would do the best job of representing your views on abortion 48% said Obama and 35% said Romney (O+13)
Which candidate would do the best job of dealing with problems in the Middle East 50% said Obama and 39% said Romney (O+11)
Which candidate would do the best job of dealing with taxes 48% said Obama and 42% said Romney (O+6)
Which candidate would do the best job of improving the job situation 46% said Obama and 45% said Romney (O+1)
Which candidate would do the best job of reducing the federal budge deficit 43% said Obama and 46% said Romney (R+3)

Gallup may be the old established grand dame of polling but it looks like they are an outlier on the current trends.

Can't wait for the debates. Two bad there are only 2 guys up there.

haymarket said:

Gallup may be the old established grand dame of polling but it looks like they are an outlier on the current trends.

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naturally. there is some heavy lobbying going on by the Obama campaign to weight polls by the 2008 turnout numbers, which is a pipe-dream. Half the headline of these polls is effectively "Democrats Like Obama Better Than Romney". well.... duh.

I find this premise interesting. From my point-of-view Romney has run an absolutely horrible and completely boneheaded campaign, yet Obama cannot capitalize on that. Says that people are ignoring what Obama says and actually looking at what he has "accomplished"... which is a good thing, in a general sense, IMO. It means that maybe more people than I realized actually put honest thought and contemplation in their votes.

cpwill said:

naturally. there is some heavy lobbying going on by the Obama campaign to weight polls by the 2008 turnout numbers, which is a pipe-dream. Half the headline of these polls is effectively "Democrats Like Obama Better Than Romney". well.... duh.

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As always, it's best to rely on the composite polls to filter out the day-to-day noise. For example, a new National Journal poll has Obama up by 7%. :shrug: RCP still has Obama up by 3.5%. My guess is that the convention bounce will fade a bit more and Obama's lead will settle in between 2-3%.

AdamT said:

As always, it's best to rely on the composite polls to filter out the day-to-day noise. For example, a new National Journal poll has Obama up by 7%. :shrug: RCP still has Obama up by 3.5%. My guess is that the convention bounce will fade a bit more and Obama's lead will settle in between 2-3%.

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I'll agree with that to some extent. The trouble witht he composite polls is... the lack of uniformity between them, and the inability to mitigate the effect of outliers (and btw, neither Gallup or Rasmussen qualify as outliers)...

You can't make a composite of polls of different sizes, different voter pools, and different voting options, and then weigh them all equally... A poll of 600 RV vs a poll of 1700 LV is an entirely different ballgame... A poll with 57% Democrats responding and 39% Republicans and 5 % Independents is going to lean to one direction... A poll with a choice between the two candidates from the major party should not be considered equally with a poll that allows a response of whatever candidate theyre chosing and an unknown option...

These composites will get inundated with polls from PPP and other liberal polling agencies, and then a poll from Quinipiac which will allow 15% of respondents to say "unknown" and because unknown isn't "undecided" theyre discounted and the result of the poll weighs one candidates votes unevely from where other polls have that candidate tracked at for support...


I think you're right, that going into the conventions, after the small post Ryan bump, Obama had a 2-3 pt lead in most polls, but the Likely Voter polls from Gallup and Rasmussen had it tied or a 1-2pt lead to Romney. After both sides saw a small convention bounce, and then Obama has been the benefactor of several liber media assaults on Romney, he got a big bounce, that's going to fade back down to where it was pre-convention, to the very same.


It will come down to the debates, any october surprise (which the job numbers will be big), and voter turnout on election day...

shiang said:

Secret video release fires up the base and alienates the middle.

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I agree

This video is damning

Obama In 1998: "I Actually Believe In Redistribution" - YouTube

tererun said:

Despite this being another in a long line of polls that is really getting tiresom, it doesn't take into account how american elections work. the reality is that Romney may have a higher percentage of the popular vote due to higher ratios of supporters in red states. But since most states are winner take all, he needs to take the battleground states to matter. If he has 90 percent of texas voters it doesn't make any difference than if he had 60 percent of texas voters. It all works out to the same number of electorate votes.

but keep on grasping at those straws. I think you have a little over a month left to cling onto the last desperate hope you have of him actually taking the states he needs.

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Oh yeah, there's something to make you proud of an Obama win! Sure doesn't say much for your chosen candidate, you admitting he can't get the popular vote.

tererun said:

Despite this being another in a long line of polls that is really getting tiresom, it doesn't take into account how american elections work. the reality is that Romney may have a higher percentage of the popular vote due to higher ratios of supporters in red states. But since most states are winner take all, he needs to take the battleground states to matter. If he has 90 percent of texas voters it doesn't make any difference than if he had 60 percent of texas voters. It all works out to the same number of electorate votes.

but keep on grasping at those straws. I think you have a little over a month left to cling onto the last desperate hope you have of him actually taking the states he needs.

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That cuts both ways though. If Obama has the huge lead in some states that are alleged, then he could be behind in others. Still too early to make hay on either side. Romney releasing his tax returns will be an interesting story today though.

Bronson said:

I agree

This video is damning

Obama In 1998: "I Actually Believe In Redistribution" - YouTube

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I agree.. what a shocker Obama is a blatent liar..

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012
72.4%
CHANCE
Last prediction was: $7.24 / share
Today's Change: +$0.25 (+3.6%)

Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012
28.8%
CHANCE
Last prediction was: $2.88 / share
Today's Change: -$0.13 (-4.3%)

FWIW, Obama shares have climbed from $5.30 to $7.24 in the last 10 days. This is just the Intrade results, I'm not taking a position on the accuracy but it does seem that Obama is strengthening. Why is that?

If you think Romney can win, I'd grab those odds and make a bunch of money at $2.88/$10.00

What's that? Obama loses the popular vote yet wins the election? Color me shocked.

I don't think the job numbers in October will matter. If they are up, they won't be up much; if they are down, it is because of end of summer jobs. I agree the debates will decide it.

I see the situation like this. The polls seem to be a continuation of the republican primary.

Anyone but Willard

He was lucky in the primary run as the 'conservative' choice kept switching more times than a high school girl's love, so while Willard suffered greatly, no one opponent could stockpile enough delegates to be a serious challenge.

Now the opponent isn't a revolving door and Willard can't hope tomorrow brings a new opponent so the lack of traction is hurting him. For all President Obama is vulnerable in so many areas, Willard just can't take advantage.

I feel his biggest single problem is he is sharing his vision but no details. Whats left of the Middle Class suspects whatever Willard's plan is, they stand a fairly good chance of taking the biggest hit, his refusal to give details seems to re-enforce that suspicion.

Will be interesting to see if Team Willard can settle down and run an effective race.

If it is anybody but Romney on the GOP side, then do you think that the people who voted for Santorum find Obama a logical alternative? They may stay at home, or they may just have to pinch their nose and pull the lever just to get rid of Obama from their perspective. Mitt is running an okay campaign. Avoiding a Willy Horton or Swift Boating derailment is what they are trying to do IMO.

Another problem with composite polling numbers is that the fundamentals underlying the poll, i.e. the sample, may be way off. In a national poll, for instance, congressional districts would be represented by 2 or 3 people on average and that is it. If my congressional district was polled 5 in Survey A and 0 in Survey B and 2 in Survey C, we may be over sampled or under sampled in the final composite.

Fisher said:

Another problem with composite polling numbers is that the fundamentals underlying the poll, i.e. the sample, may be way off. In a national poll, for instance, congressional districts would be represented by 2 or 3 people on average and that is it. If my congressional district was polled 5 in Survey A and 0 in Survey B and 2 in Survey C, we may be over sampled or under sampled in the final composite.

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That is actually the advantage of composite polling: it averages out the results to minimize outliers.

AdamT said:

That is actually the advantage of composite polling: it averages out the results to minimize outliers.

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Every poll over samples somebody. If those somebodies (say White Democratic Men between 35-49 with incomes between $50K-$75K) are over sampled in multiple polls, it could create the opposite illusion that they were averaged out more than they actually are. My mom says she has been lying to every pollster who calls her. It is all just a guessing game anyway. The two candidates haven't even faced off yet. All the polling info is nothing more than political junkie porn this far in advance of the election.

Fisher said:

Every poll over samples somebody. If those somebodies (say White Democratic Men between 35-49 with incomes between $50K-$75K) are over sampled in multiple polls, it could create the opposite illusion that they were averaged out more than they actually are. My mom says she has been lying to every pollster who calls her. It is all just a guessing game anyway. The two candidates haven't even faced off yet. All the polling info is nothing more than political junkie porn this far in advance of the election.

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I disagree. We're close enough now that the polling is significant.

tererun said:

Despite this being another in a long line of polls that is really getting tiresom, it doesn't take into account how american elections work. the reality is that Romney may have a higher percentage of the popular vote due to higher ratios of supporters in red states. But since most states are winner take all, he needs to take the battleground states to matter. If he has 90 percent of texas voters it doesn't make any difference than if he had 60 percent of texas voters. It all works out to the same number of electorate votes.

but keep on grasping at those straws. I think you have a little over a month left to cling onto the last desperate hope you have of him actually taking the states he needs.

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Sorry to burst your bubble, but 98% of the time, "grasping at straws" is correct in picking the winner.

Taylor said:

Sorry to burst your bubble, but 98% of the time, "grasping at straws" is correct in picking the winner.

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Really? You think that's the method Vegas uses to run their sports book, analyze all the data and then pick the team which it says won't win? I really think that there may be some Republicans/Libertarians who are going to require psychiatric help if/when Obama wins again. Many of them are already so disconnected from whatever reality contradicts their desired world view as to be scary.