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Latest Swing State Polls

Fisher said:
I think you may be jumping the gun. Obama is trying to force Romney into Fl and out of the north. I expect that come Oct 15 or 20th, every swing state will be carpet-bombed by Romney who reportedly has way more money than Obama to retaliate with. Romney bought the nomination with a barrage of highly targeted negative ads. I expect he is going to go back to that playbook when Obama won't have the time or money to respond in everyone of the swing states as soon as the last debate is over.
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I don't think that's a good strategy if he does it. Carpet bombed ads work really well in the primaries for quickly shifting public opinion when the candidates are ideologically close. In the general it's harder to sway the public, and I think waiting until late October is too late. He'd be better served to strengthen his current advertising barrage in states like Iowa, Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado where he's close, than to try and divide his attacks into less likely states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada.
 
Loki97 said:
Something a little contradictory in your logic there. If Romney has money to spare, why not continue his ads in PA and force Obama to spend precious resources defending his lead here instead of allowing it to grow and planning some massive 4th quarter comeback? Either Romney is an idiot as a strategist or he knows the bell has already tolled for him in the Keystone State.
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Every one's looking forward to debates. I think money spent on adds won't do much, grass root "get out the vote" might matter more at this point.
 
I am not saying it is the right strategy, I just think that is what they are planning on doing. Romney would never do what I think he should do and become an elitist visionary, completely disregard Obama's existence, deepen his voice, and try to create a Reagan presence.


BTW, I haven't decided who to vote for so sometimes I do play devil's advocate. For instance, I think Kaine would be a much better Senator than Allen for VA and the US. Allen has this awe shucks I'm not one of them attitude and spent almost his entire time as governor rubbing elbows in DC while VA's exceptional economy purred on; Kaine, who is way to liberal for me philosophically, had an economic mess on his hands and rolled up his sleeves, made a lot of tough decisions working with the GOP, and preserved the state's prestigious, unsurpassed bond rating.

I saw a show a few months back in which these Washington pollsters all said the same thing. Polling generically is becoming unstable and they think it will be completely useless in 20 years time. There are too many people doing it; it is being done too often; people are resenting being contacted which is likely distorting reliability; and some campaigns robocall and poll to death on purpose to actually suppress the vote for their opponent by inundating their opponent's likely supporters with telephone calls not traced back to their campaign but appearing to be associated with the opponent. They believe divining social media posts will be the way polling will be extrapolated in the future.
 
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shiang said:
Every one's looking forward to debates. I think money spent on adds won't do much, grass root "get out the vote" might matter more at this point.
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I was merely pointing out that traditional strategy dictates that when you have more resources than your opponent you try to make them expend theirs whenever possible. A 1-1 trade in ad dollars, even if it doesn't decrease the margin, would be money Obama can't spend elsewhere. I doubt the Democrats would be able to tolerate not responding at all.
 
Loki97 said:
I was merely pointing out that traditional strategy dictates that when you have more resources than your opponent you try to make them expend theirs whenever possible. A 1-1 trade in ad dollars, even if it doesn't decrease the margin, would be money Obama can't spend elsewhere. I doubt the Democrats would be able to tolerate not responding at all.
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There is certainly merit in that logic but this is also such a gotcha election that if you outspend your opponent 2:1, a video clip can undo all the good you did yourself with that money. Waiting for the last minute allows you to completely put all those behind you (hopefully if it is your campaign) and drive in the message you want to drive in. Obama has the mainstream media so on his side, that it is not the worst longshot idea for Romney to consider.
 
Fisher said:
There is certainly merit in that logic but this is also such a gotcha election that if you outspend your opponent 2:1, a video clip can undo all the good you did yourself with that money. Waiting for the last minute allows you to completely put all those behind you (hopefully if it is your campaign) and drive in the message you want to drive in. Obama has the mainstream media so on his side, that it is not the worst longshot idea for Romney to consider.
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Romney certainly has the local media in this part of PA on his side even when it doesn't reflect the voter demographics. If he thinks a Hail Mary is his best shot in the state then so be it but such tactics are by definition born out of desperation and have a low probability of success. As things stand, I think much of the radical right/Tea Party constituency(who were never thrilled with Romney to begin with) have started to shift toward some grand, doomed gesture in support of Ron Paul.
 
VA gave Ron Paul his best results too as the Anti-Romney since everybody else was not on the ballot and it is also home of the Constitution Party candidate. The thing is, Romney's record is moderate to almost liberal. If he loses, the next GOP nominee will be somewhere right of Hitler.
 
Fisher said:
I think you may be jumping the gun. Obama is trying to force Romney into Fl and out of the north. I expect that come Oct 15 or 20th, every swing state will be carpet-bombed by Romney who reportedly has way more money than Obama to retaliate with. Romney bought the nomination with a barrage of highly targeted negative ads. I expect he is going to go back to that playbook when Obama won't have the time or money to respond in everyone of the swing states as soon as the last debate is over.
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Maybe... but Penn is out of his reach and has been for some time.
 
Thanks for the link. Romney, of course, could loan his campaign tens of millions of dollars if he were so inclined at the drop of a hat (or a call to the Caymans), but he'd be a fool to do it.
 
Fisher said:
There is certainly merit in that logic but this is also such a gotcha election that if you outspend your opponent 2:1, a video clip can undo all the good you did yourself with that money. Waiting for the last minute allows you to completely put all those behind you (hopefully if it is your campaign) and drive in the message you want to drive in. Obama has the mainstream media so on his side, that it is not the worst longshot idea for Romney to consider.
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Not buying that argument.
 
Fisher said:
VA gave Ron Paul his best results too as the Anti-Romney since everybody else was not on the ballot and it is also home of the Constitution Party candidate. The thing is, Romney's record is moderate to almost liberal. If he loses, the next GOP nominee will be somewhere right of Hitler.
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With a GOP prez loss this year... there is no telling what the restructuring of the GOP will bring. I'm not going to say that they'd go right of hitler... but if they have any damn sense in their skulls they'd start marginalizing their social conservatives because it is them that single handedly keeps the party from growing because they are 100% uncompromising and they do so on very unpopular policies. If they slide more toward libertarian party rather than towards the constitution party, they'd have some solid footing to grow. Spitting nails on and on about abortion and gay marriage is killing them because on those policies, they are on the wrong side of history and history is playing itself out on them.
 
Winning for the sake of winning is the end all and be all of both parties. Moderates get hung out to dry financially come time to re-elect and the other party targets them because it is more important to have their letter on the seat than to have someone they could work with. I am not sure the GOP has anybody more close to a centrist so they will have to go more right. I expect Susan Collins will even face a tough fight in 2014 and she chaired the Homeland Security committee in the Senate (who BTW would have been the better VP choice for Romney IMO)
 
Fisher said:
Winning for the sake of winning is the end all and be all of both parties. Moderates get hung out to dry financially come time to re-elect and the other party targets them because it is more important to have their letter on the seat than to have someone they could work with. I am not sure the GOP has anybody more close to a centrist so they will have to go more right. I expect Susan Collins will even face a tough fight in 2014 and she chaired the Homeland Security committee in the Senate (who BTW would have been the better VP choice for Romney IMO)
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I don't think so. Maine's Republican primary is moderate enough that she can probably win the primary. We are losing Republican moderates pretty quickly though. Chuck Hagel retired, Olympia Snowe is retiring, Dick Lugar got primaried, Scott Brown might lose this year, Lisa Murkowski was almost lost in 2010, etc.
 
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