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CBS/NYT: Obama +3, Sample D+6

The polls seem to be agreeing as of late. Not good for Mittens. This should only make the right wing more desperate going into October when the ball bats with nine inch nails will come out.
 
The Prof said:
Poll: Obama has foreign policy advantage - CBS News

cbs cites obama's foreign policy advantage, interestingly

romney leads I's by 11
Click to expand...

Good pollsters don't weight by Party ID. Polling during a Democratic bounce tends to lead to more people seeing themselves as Democrats. That accounts for the increase in Democrats in the Party ID affiliation and the Republican's large lead in independents. It's why you can't read much into party ID samples.
 
Good pollsters don't weight by Party ID
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LOL!

cbs does

2008 exit polls show african americans made up 13% of all voters, youths (age 18 to 29) comprised 18% of the electorate

the overall voter demo in 08 was D+7

in 2010, the votership was 35 to 35, gop vs dems, according to the exits

blacks were 10% of the vote, 18 to 29's only 12%

thus republicans won the most house seats since 1938, 6 senators, 10 gubs and more state assemblies in history

Election 2010 - Exit Poll Results - CBS News

Breakdown of demographics reveals how black voters swept Obama into White House | Mail Online

Youth vote may have been key in Obama's win - politics - Decision '08 | NBC News

good luck with that D+6
 
The Prof said:
LOL!

cbs does

2008 exit polls show african americans made up 13% of all voters, youths (age 18 to 29) comprised 18% of the electorate

the overall voter demo in 08 was D+7

in 2010, the votership was 35 to 35, gop vs dems, according to the exits

blacks were 10% of the vote, 18 to 29's only 12%

thus republicans won the most house seats since 1938, 6 senators, 10 gubs and more state assemblies in history

Election 2010 - Exit Poll Results - CBS News

Breakdown of demographics reveals how black voters swept Obama into White House | Mail Online

Youth vote may have been key in Obama's win - politics - Decision '08 | NBC News

good luck with that D+6
Click to expand...

If CBS does, than they probably aren't a good pollster. Party ID is not an immutable trait, so trying to weight by it increases the amount of error in polls more than if just left alone. D+6 doesn't actually mean D+6 because some voters who are not registered as Democrats are considering themselves as Democrats in the poll. Exit polls usually ask for the Party ID you are officially registered as, unlike most telephone polls, which just ask which party you consider yourself a part of. People have been complaining about Party affiliation in polls for the past decade, yet polls continue to be accurate.
 
Congratulations. Tragically left-wing biased sources are giving Obama the lead. Color me shocked.
 
Velvet Elvis said:
Congratulations. Tragically left-wing biased sources are giving Obama the lead. Color me shocked.
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Source might be biased, but the poll itself has methodology that isn't terrible. Although, I think there are better ways to weight the polls than what they did.
 
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