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Reuters/Ipsos: Obama +3, Sample D+5

The Prof said:
romney lead independents by 11 in abc/wp poll (obama +1, D+6)

Washington Post-ABC News Poll (washingtonpost.com)

cnn (obama +6, D+5) has romney leading unaffiliated's by 14

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/09/10/rel10a.pdf

that's an awful lot of republicans voting for president punt, it appears

stay tuned
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The problem with this is that unaffiliated voters aren't voting for Romney +14. Voters who would otherwise say they are independent are responding to the question as Democrats in the midst of Obama's convention bounce. It's what's causing the Democratic party ID percentage to go up and causing the independent's voting percentage to swing toward Romney. I believe that the polls results themselves are likely accurate right now and are reflecting Obama's bounce. In a week or so, the polls will probably stop reporting huge Party ID leads for the Democrats, but the percentage of independents that Romney leads by will also decrease somewhat.
 
The Prof said:
reuters/ipsos today: obama +3, sample D+5

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11965

fox today: obama +5, sample D+6

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/int...-post-convention-poll-most-say-country-still/
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Having "enjoyed" listening to Sean Hannity blast the ABC/Washington Post poll that had Obama up by 1 point, I am very much looking forward to him squirm in explanation of the Fox poll.

That all said, I realize polls are polls, but Hannity sure twisted the ABC/Washington Post poll into a Romney landslide.
 
It's swing-voting independents who, as usual, made the difference today. Independents favored Republicans for House by a thumping 15 points, 55-40 percent, in the national exit poll. Compare that to Obama's 8-point win among independents in 2008.
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Exit Poll Analysis: Vote 2010 Elections Results - ABC News

what's changed since tsunami tuesday?

except a whole bunch of more of the same?
 
Complaining about poll methodology when all polls are showing the same trend is kinda silly.
 
Complaining about poll methodology
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pros don't complain

they seek to explain

it's what bill clinton would call arithemetic

for example, today: democracy corps (dem pollster), natl: obama +5, sample D+11

http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/908/dcor.political.fq.09132012.web.pdf

nbc/marist, ohio: obama +7, sample D+11

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/ohio_poll_september.pdf

virginia: obama +5, D+5

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/S...ay_Stories_Teases/virginia_poll_september.pdf

florida: obama +5, D+2

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/S...day_Stories_Teases/florida_poll_september.pdf

kinda silly
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granted, it's not intrade

LOL!
 
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