Romney sees slight post-Ryan-pick bump in some swing states.

...and drops slightlly less in others. Currently Romney holds a slight lead in Virginia, Ohio, and Florida, while the President holds a slight lead in Colorado. From Purple Poll:

In the immediate aftermath of Mitt Romney’s selection of Paul Ryan as his running mate, the GOP ticket has drawn even with the Democratic ticket.

Today, Romney and Ryan lead the Obama-Biden ticket by a point (47% to 46%), an improvement from July when President Obama led Romney by 2 points, 47% to 45%.

The Romney-Ryan ticket is fueled by an 11-point advantage among independents. This represents an increase from July, when Romney held a 5-point margin over Obama among that key group. In our Purple Predictor states, Ryan’s addition to the ticket has had a mixed impact on the race.

Romney has seen the largest gain in Ohio, a state we have seen bounce between the campaigns over the last few months. Today, the GOP ticket leads by 2 points (46% to 44%), compared to July when President Obama led the state 48% to 45%. Romney also gained ground in Virginia – today, he and Paul Ryan hold a 3-point advantage in the race (48% to 45%), while Romney trailed by 2 points in July.

However, President Obama has seen improvements in Colorado and Florida. In Colorado, the Obama-Biden ticket now leads 49% to 46%, an increase from a 1-point lead in July. In Florida, the Democratic ticket trails by just 1 point (48% to 47%), compared to a 3 point deficit in July.

Taken as a whole, these data indicate a small bump in the immediate aftermath of the Ryan announcement. Nonetheless, it is also the first sign of positive momentum for the Romney campaign that we’ve seen in the PurplePoll in the last few months...

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Lots of good stuff in that poll, for any who wants to flip through it - excellent breakdown. One of the things I found most interesting - the Romney-Ryan Plan is polling favorably on taxes and medicare in Florida.

A scrap of comfort in a long dark night?

I have a slight bit more respect for this poll, since it focuses on idnependents and swing states, which will decide the election, rather than the nation at a whole... That and it's not some major media entertainment company posting a headline... and breaks down the actual poll...

However, as I've maintained all along, the polls, by very process are flawed, and will fluctuate back and forth throughout the process...

This is one of the key swings in an election, the nomination of a VP candidate...

Then there will be the conventions... which the Republican Convention is in 2 weeks, then a week later the Democratic convention... There will likely be a slight bump in each direction afterwards...

This election is likely going to go down to election day... but, the debates will be the big deciders for the most part... when the two candidates and their vp candidates square off right next to each other... and how they handle themselves, even down to their gestures, in the debate will have the effect that voters will solidify their opinions of the candidates on...

Any pre-debate polls is essentially meaningless then, in that regard...

I'd like to see the Ryan-Biden debate be solely focused on Entitlements. No one really cares what these two think about foreign policy anyway and most domestic issues are wedge issues, so I'd like to see a bare-knuckled hour and a half bar room fight over their opposing ideologies on Entitlements...
lets get this shlt ON!!!

IndepCentristMA said:

I have a slight bit more respect for this poll, since it focuses on idnependents and swing states, which will decide the election, rather than the nation at a whole... That and it's not some major media entertainment company posting a headline... and breaks down the actual poll...

However, as I've maintained all along, the polls, by very process are flawed, and will fluctuate back and forth throughout the process...

This is one of the key swings in an election, the nomination of a VP candidate...

Then there will be the conventions... which the Republican Convention is in 2 weeks, then a week later the Democratic convention... There will likely be a slight bump in each direction afterwards...

This election is likely going to go down to election day... but, the debates will be the big deciders for the most part... when the two candidates and their vp candidates square off right next to each other... and how they handle themselves, even down to their gestures, in the debate will have the effect that voters will solidify their opinions of the candidates on...

Any pre-debate polls is essentially meaningless then, in that regard...

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That's all well and good, but polls do show a trend. And that trend is not good for Obama.

Born Free said:

That's all well and good, but polls do show a trend. And that trend is not good for Obama.

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I agree... but you get a 3 pt bump from the vp nomination, and a 3 pt bump from the convention... then the dems get 3 pts back the other way after their convention... and it goes back into the even category at the time of the debates...


I think the factors that are bad against Obama are the ones which have been bad long before Ryan entered the race...

The mounting debt that's going to reach $16T in some time in september or october...
The 8.3% (and rising) unemployment rate...
The better than $3.50/gal gasoline prices in most areas of the country (many even over $4)...
The slowing GDP, which is now growing at less than the rate of inflation...
The unprecidented STEEP 2% drop in workforce participation rate...
The declining incomes among working individuals...
etc.

The low approval rates, close poll margins, etc. just reflect that...

and with that undecided vote still always much larger than every supposed advantage he has in the polls still spells the same bad forecast for Obama in November... given that historically in EVERY election they've gone 80%-20% against the incumbent... even if they go 66%-33% in this election, it's more than enough to turn the election in Romney's favor...

Going to be interesting to what happens with the trend now that Ryan is in play. Simply logistically. Romeny has pretty much doubled his effort in campaigning with Ryan joining up. Obama is virtually by himself. The only reason people pay attention to Biden is to see what moronic gaffe will come spilling out.

Fishstyx said:

Going to be interesting to what happens with the trend now that Ryan is in play. Simply logistically. Romeny has pretty much doubled his effort in campaigning with Ryan joining up. Obama is virtually by himself. The only reason people pay attention to Biden is to see what moronic gaffe will come spilling out.

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Well, the thing it most does it take a bunch of the attacks off Romney and onto Ryan, too... a moving target now, essentially...

Which I was a big proponent of dragging it out, but he should've done this right after the foreign trip, when all the negative press was going on... then boom, vp announcement, change of subject...

still it's doing it's job, the race has changed, theres a bump, the polls have closed after opening in Obama's favor... and now for the showpieces of the conventions...

Born Free said:

That's all well and good, but polls do show a trend. And that trend is not good for Obama.

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You know why they call it a bump? Because it's temporary.

From Nate Silver:

f you simply average all the data that post-dates the unveiling of Mr. Ryan as Mr. Romney’s running mate, we’re getting largely the same story that we did on Tuesday. Mr. Romney has gained a net of one point, on average, in the eleven polls conducted wholly or partially after his announcement of Mr. Ryan, compared to the prior renditions of the same surveys in the same states. This is a below-average “bounce” for the selection of a vice presidential candidate; in past elections, the bounce has averaged in the neighborhood of 4 percentage points instead.

Aug. 15: To Bounce, or Not to Bounce - NYTimes.com

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AdamT said:

You know why they call it a bump? Because it's temporary.

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We get, you love obama, you worship his every word, you have a shrine to him in your bathroom, you sleep with his picture. We get it, in your mind he is the black Jesus come to save liberals from themselves.

If one day, you wake up and realize that you are living in a fantasy, come back and we can talk. Until then you are wasting your time and mine with your mindless posts.

Bobcat said:

We get, you love obama, you worship his every word, you have a shrine to him in your bathroom, you sleep with his picture. We get it, in your mind he is the black Jesus come to save liberals from themselves.

If one day, you wake up and realize that you are living in a fantasy, come back and we can talk. Until then you are wasting your time and mine with your mindless posts.

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Whatever. They call it a bump because it's temporary ... and in this case, miniscule. No worries, I'm sure Obama will grow on you in his second term.

AdamT said:

Whatever. They call it a bump because it's temporary ... and in this case, miniscule. No worries, I'm sure Obama will grow on you in his second term.

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President Romney---Ex president obama--------get used to it. :cheers: