GOP has 13-point "engagement" advantage

I've been saying for a while that I think the nasty tone of this campaign is going to turn it into a base election - where independents and weak voters stay home, and the motivated voters come out. (caveat: the inclusion of Ryan, and the resultant change in the debate could change that)

Which means that I tend to think that in this election "likely" and "motivated" voters are the ones to watch vice "adults" or "registered" voters. This isn't 2008.

Gallup has decided to demonstrate to you here on Debate Politics that they are wise, because they agree with me .

More Republicans than Democrats are engaged in the presidential contest and voter turnout could decrease compared with the 2008 election, according to a Gallup poll on Monday.

Seventy-four percent of Republicans said they’re thinking about the election “quite a lot,” compared to 61 percent of Democrats, the USA Today/Gallup survey found.

“In most prior election campaigns, Republicans have typically paid a higher level of attention to the election than Democrats. However, the current 13-point Republican advantage is larger than Gallup has measured in recent presidential election years,” Gallup wrote....

Americans are less engaged than the 2008 and 2004 elections, but more engaged than the 2000 election, according the poll. During those cycles, voter engagement in July measured at 70 percent in 2008; 69 percent in 2004; and 42 percent in 2000, according to the poll. Voter turnout during those years was 57 percent; 55 percent; and 51 percent, respectively....

That data suggests that Republican voter turnout could top Democrat turnout, according the to poll. However, polling after the conventions — when Democrats have more of a reason to tap into election news — is likely to better indicate engagement among the two parties...

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Worth noting is that the poll was taken July 19-22; which means before the Ryan pick.

Which has since caused Republican interest to spike. Meanwhile, Biden draws about 600 folks and Democrat enthusiasm is sharply down.



Democrats today look like Republicans in 2008. Demoralized with a sense that their guy hasn't lived up to the promise and in many players a growing sense of buyers remorse. And the traditional GOTV machines that Democrats have depended upon - the unions - are pulling back and focusing on licking their wounds and working on local elections.





There are alot of good reasons (narrative, comparative favorabilities, etc) to argue that this race is going to be neck and neck with an advantage to the President. But this right here is why I think that argument is flawed.