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Polls: Bain Attacks Fail to Shift Voters

johnny_rebson said:
It's going to be an ugly campaign season between two candidates who are both anti-gun, pro-choice tax raisers who both created government healthcare programs.
Click to expand...

I think it'll be hilarious!

Mitt: President Obama has done / said X
Obama: Yes, but so did you when you were governor of Massachusetts
Mitt: Damn.
Obama: Mr. Romney has done Y
Mitt: President Obama has attempted to pass Y a number of times during his presidency
Obama: Damn.

Then NP creates a thread declaring Obama a loser and Mitt a debate champion.
 
I'm not surprised, really. For the most part, these sort of attacks only reinforce previous convictions about a candidate.
 
cpwill said:
From the Right-leaning Rasmussen to the Left-leaning New York Times / CBS:







So yeah. Pretty much for the last couple of weeks, the Obama campaign has been preaching... to one half of the Democrat party. And they have been successful in shifting.... people that were already voting for him.


But hey, if Romney spends the next couple of months talking about economic growth, and Obama spends the next few months diving into the specifics of regulation involving SEC filings, I only want to encourage that. :D
Click to expand...

There are plenty of other reasons why I won't vote for Romney that have nothing to do with him being at Bain Capital.

So don't really care how well this attack works or not. Still not going to affect my opinion of Romney.
 
New poll: http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/12768_July_Poll.pdf (NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll)

In the last month Romney's positives have gone up by 2 %, negatives by 1 % Neutral has gone up by 1 %. Realistically any change is within the margin of error.

However, this chart is interesting:

SUMMARY TABLE OF IMAGES – BY D/S (POSITIVE – NEGATIVE)
TOTAL POSITIVE TOTAL
NEGATIVE D/S
Michelle Obama ..................................... 54 26 28
The Supreme Court ............................... 40 28 12
Ann Romney .......................................... 32 22 10
Barack Obama ....................................... 49 43 6
John Roberts ......................................... 17 16 1
The Democratic Party ............................ 40 40 -
Joe Biden ............................................... 35 37 -2
Mitt Romney .......................................... 35 40 -5
The Republican Party ............................ 34 43 -9
Bain Capital ........................................... 12 23 -11
The Occupy Wall Street Movement ....... 26 40 -14
The Tea Party Movement ...................... 28 43 -15

Romney is tied with Biden for positives, but behind even him in net. Also look at that Bain number and the Republican Party number. Guess what Obama is going to continue to tie Romney to.
 
The over time for all those things are interesting in terms of trends.

Bain for interest is really interesting. You see hardening on both extreme ends of the spectrum from May to July. Very positive is +2. Very Negative is +5. As you move to the middle though, it gets really interesting. Somewhat positive shifted up +1 and somewhat Negative shifted down -1. The neutrals are most interesting and no opinions are most interesting though.....up +8 from may to July for neutral, -15 in terms of those who didn't have an opinion or didn't know the name.

So you had about 15% becoming aware or forming an opinion on Bain oer that time. +3 positive, +4 negative, but the bigger is that +8 neutral. In May, more than 50% had no opinion or didn't know who it was. In July, that's down to 38% which is still a big chunk. And it seems as more people are becoming aware there's no a giant rush to one side or the other but it's just kind of there. It'll be interesting to see how that moves.

Romney's situation is interesting as well. He's been under 10% in "no opinion/don't know him" since January, so I'll begin there as it's when he's established most as a known commodity. From January to July, his "Very's" changed +7 P (positive) and +9 N (negative). His "somewhat's" changed -3 P and -5 N. Neutral is at -3.

Now, I find that amazingly interesting becuase your net result is a +4 swing positive and a +4 swing negative, with Neutral's losing some points. I also find it interesting that the things that saw the gains were at the VERY end of the scale. What I think that may mean is that you have your die hards on either side who, once the nominee becomes absolutely clear, swing the way they need to. So your die hards on the right throw their positive support behind him and the die hards on the left swing their negative support against him. What that gives you is your kind of "fat middle" that may potentially be swayed....A fat middle that right now sits at about 63%.

It's also of note that this is in terms of positive/negative feelings. In general, I would argue that amongst his own people Romney is disliked more than Obama is by his...and same goes for the party. I thought the same in 2004 when the party nominated a person the base was just kind of "eh" about and the other side had a guy that the base thought maybe wasn't perfect but they could at least rally around as "their guy".

I don't doubt Obama will continue to tie him to Bain and The Republicans. However, with Bain, I'm actually curious to see how it'll play out since so much of the opinion on it falls in the Neutral or the "No Opinion" category making it hard to really read. And with the Republicans...it's kind of a known quantity and connection and am unsure how much effect "tying" Romney to them will really have.
 
AS much as I hate the idea of reducing something as important as the presidential election down to a horse race(or for you, a football game), I do still love to talk about that aspect.
 
Redress said:
Certainly not yet. I do think there is more to the narrative to build yet. I mention again the IRA, which could be a big thing later.

I would also to an extent call it problamatic because the best Romney can claim out of the last month is he maintained the status quo, which is not good enough to win with for him.
Click to expand...


And Obama can claim, what, exactly?

He can claim the status quo, "which is not good enough to win" re-election.

The results of the poll are a two way street. But keep spinning. It's fun to watch!
 
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This is chess, not checkers. Obama is building a case by laying the groundwork early with these Bain and tax attacks, building a narrative that shows Romney can't be trusted. Romney is already on the defense and it's only July, so the attacks are working even if the polls don't show them to be all that effective. Once Obama starts giving us his vision of the next 4 years, Romney will be still talking about the Bain ads.

Romney has not giving anything about his vision for his Presidency other than I'm not Obama, but that was enough to push Obama on the defensive and keep him talking about his record. Obama needed to get out of that loop of trying to explain the situation again and have Conservatives say he's trying to pass the buck. Instead of doing that, he flipped it. Now Romney is trying to explain himself.

Good move on the president's part.
 
cpwill said:
From the Right-leaning Rasmussen to the Left-leaning New York Times / CBS:







So yeah. Pretty much for the last couple of weeks, the Obama campaign has been preaching... to one half of the Democrat party. And they have been successful in shifting.... people that were already voting for him.


But hey, if Romney spends the next couple of months talking about economic growth, and Obama spends the next few months diving into the specifics of regulation involving SEC filings, I only want to encourage that. :D
Click to expand...


Then explain why Obama is ahead by 8-9 points in swing states.

Romney is done.
 
hazlnut said:
Then explain why Obama is ahead by 8-9 points in swing states.

Romney is done.
Click to expand...

From RCP....

Ohio - Obama +4.3
Virginia - Obama +1.2
Florida - Obama +1.1
Iowa - Obama +1.3
North Carolina - Romney +0.4
Colorado - Obama +3.0
Nevada - Obama +4.5
Missouri - Romney +3.0
Wisconsin - Obama +7.0
Michigan - Obama +4.2
Pennsylvania - Obama +5.8
New Hampshire - Obama +3.0

That's 7 of 12 being within 3 points, which is pretty much still a toss up. Obama's over 5% in only 2 of the 12 battle ground states, and not over 7 in any.

I think you're counting your chicken's WAY before they hatch
 
Looking at the toss up states kind of made something stand out. The belt of battle grounds up the line from Florida to Michigan are really going to decide this

Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida.

Essentially, if Obama takes any one of those and everything else remains chalk....he almost surely wins. Those five states are largely going to be the ones that decide this election unless something unexpected like a South Carolina or a Pennsylvania swaps sides. Romney's camp could withstand possibly losing one out of Michigan, Virginia, and North Carolina IF they manage to put together a win Colorado or Missouri and can pair that win with either the other one there, Iowa or Nevada. But it'd be almost impossible for him to survive losing two of those three.

Of those five, it doesn't look pretty but doens't look impossible for Romney.

Florida and Virginia are both about 1% off for him. North Carolina is essentially a tie right now. Michigian and Ohio is where it hurts, as both are clearly leaning Obama but neither are above 5%.
 
Zyphlin said:
Looking at the toss up states kind of made something stand out. The belt of battle grounds up the line from Florida to Michigan are really going to decide this

Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida.

Essentially, if Obama takes any one of those and everything else remains chalk....he almost surely wins. Those five states are largely going to be the ones that decide this election unless something unexpected like a South Carolina or a Pennsylvania swaps sides. Romney's camp could withstand possibly losing one out of Michigan, Virginia, and North Carolina IF they manage to put together a win Colorado or Missouri and can pair that win with either the other one there, Iowa or Nevada. But it'd be almost impossible for him to survive losing two of those three.

Of those five, it doesn't look pretty but doens't look impossible for Romney.

Florida and Virginia are both about 1% off for him. North Carolina is essentially a tie right now. Michigian and Ohio is where it hurts, as both are clearly leaning Obama but neither are above 5%.
Click to expand...

Hes actually going to win all of them..its Obama who may lose each..Obama is going to be destroyed in a landslide ..
 
Travis007 said:
Hes actually going to win all of them..its Obama who may lose each..Obama is going to be destroyed in a landslide ..
Click to expand...

Wishful thinking at its finest...
 
zgoldsmith23 said:
Wishful thinking at its finest...
Click to expand...

a good read and sums it up..sum things that dont show up in the polls...YET



A Las Vegas "odds maker" opines on why Obama will get "creamed" by Romney in
November. Interesting analysis, and only a few minute or so to read.



Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or
prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats.

I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a
well-known Vegas oddsmaker with one of the most accurate records of
predicting political races.

But as an odds maker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking
political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them
as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I
predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney
trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman
Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP
nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential race
between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on
election day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in
1980.

Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney
victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points
to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most
pollstersgive Obama the edge?

First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my
gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch
to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for
an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared
about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.

Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:
*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His
endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going
Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008.
This is notgood news for Obama.

*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If
Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10%
to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news
for Obama.

*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish
voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish
support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60's. This is not good news for
Obama.

*Youth voters. Obama's biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years
ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are
disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is
long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual
voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.

*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won't
happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the
Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic
Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.

*Small Business owners.Because I ran for Vice President last time around,
and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small
business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and
supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to "give someone different a chance."
I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone
who owned a business...that he'd support unions over the private sector in a
big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends
didn't listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of
small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good
news for Obama.

*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working
class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about
the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.

*Suburban moms. The issue isn't contraception.it<http://contraception.it/>'s
having a job to pay for contraception. Obama's economy frightens these moms.
They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their
children's future. This is not good news for Obama.

*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by
24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they
disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.
Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will
anyone in America wake up on election day saying "I didn't vote for Obama 4
years ago. But he's done such a fantastic job, I can't wait to vote for him
today." Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?
Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas odds maker and common sense
small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a
world-class repudiation of Obama's radical and risky socialist agenda. It's
Reagan-Carter all over again.

But I'll give Obama credit for one thing- he is living proof that
familiarity breeds contempt
 
Travis007 said:
a good read and sums it up..sum things that dont show up in the polls...YET



A Las Vegas "odds maker" opines on why Obama will get "creamed" by Romney in
November. Interesting analysis, and only a few minute or so to read.
Click to expand...

The actual Las Vegas odds put it 57:43 Obama. :lol:
 
Travis007 said:
Hes actually going to win all of them..its Obama who may lose each..Obama is going to be destroyed in a landslide ..
Click to expand...

How would you define a landslide?

Will Romney win more than 75% of the electoral votes? 75% more states than Obama does? 75% more popular vote? Would just like to know so we have some reference in the future.
 
Travis007 said:
a good read and sums it up..sum things that dont show up in the polls...YET



A Las Vegas "odds maker" opines on why Obama will get "creamed" by Romney in
November. Interesting analysis, and only a few minute or so to read.



Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or
prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats.

I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a
well-known Vegas oddsmaker with one of the most accurate records of
predicting political races.

But as an odds maker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking
political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them
as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I
predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney
trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman
Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP
nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential race
between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on
election day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in
1980.

Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney
victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points
to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most
pollstersgive Obama the edge?

First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my
gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch
to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for
an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared
about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.

Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:
*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His
endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going
Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008.
This is notgood news for Obama.

*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If
Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10%
to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news
for Obama.

*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish
voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish
support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60's. This is not good news for
Obama.

*Youth voters. Obama's biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years
ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are
disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is
long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual
voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.

*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won't
happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the
Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic
Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.

*Small Business owners.Because I ran for Vice President last time around,
and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small
business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and
supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to "give someone different a chance."
I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone
who owned a business...that he'd support unions over the private sector in a
big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends
didn't listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of
small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good
news for Obama.

*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working
class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about
the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.

*Suburban moms. The issue isn't contraception.it<http://contraception.it/>'s
having a job to pay for contraception. Obama's economy frightens these moms.
They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their
children's future. This is not good news for Obama.

*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by
24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they
disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.
Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will
anyone in America wake up on election day saying "I didn't vote for Obama 4
years ago. But he's done such a fantastic job, I can't wait to vote for him
today." Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?
Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas odds maker and common sense
small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a
world-class repudiation of Obama's radical and risky socialist agenda. It's
Reagan-Carter all over again.

But I'll give Obama credit for one thing- he is living proof that
familiarity breeds contempt
Click to expand...

Nice article by Wayne Root from TownHall. :roll:

He's literally playing odds. "If X happens, then Y." Well, if X doesn't happen, neither will Y? You can certainly make a great case that Romney will beat Obama, but not in a landslide as you so proclaim.

I'll list a few problems I can see people having with this article:

1. He has to mention Reagan. I forgot we have to pay heed to the man that killed the Commies, won us our Independence from those Mexican-Frenchies and reduced taxes to -34%.
2. He's an odds maker for Vegas. What? The hot dog vendor on the corner of the street wouldn't give you the answer you were looking for?
3. He continually uses "gut instinct" as if that is some form of sound reasoning.
 
Redress said:
New poll: http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/12768_July_Poll.pdf (NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll)

In the last month Romney's positives have gone up by 2 %, negatives by 1 % Neutral has gone up by 1 %. Realistically any change is within the margin of error.

However, this chart is interesting:

SUMMARY TABLE OF IMAGES – BY D/S (POSITIVE – NEGATIVE)
TOTAL POSITIVE TOTAL
NEGATIVE D/S
Michelle Obama ..................................... 54 26 28
The Supreme Court ............................... 40 28 12
Ann Romney .......................................... 32 22 10
Barack Obama ....................................... 49 43 6
John Roberts ......................................... 17 16 1
The Democratic Party ............................ 40 40 -
Joe Biden ............................................... 35 37 -2
Mitt Romney .......................................... 35 40 -5
The Republican Party ............................ 34 43 -9
Bain Capital ........................................... 12 23 -11
The Occupy Wall Street Movement ....... 26 40 -14
The Tea Party Movement ...................... 28 43 -15

Romney is tied with Biden for positives, but behind even him in net. Also look at that Bain number and the Republican Party number. Guess what Obama is going to continue to tie Romney to.
Click to expand...

Considering that 46% Democrats and 35% Republicans were polled (page 26) the results are not suprising...the fact that Romney did as well as he did should worry some of my 'left leaning friends'...
 
Dickieboy said:
Considering that 46% Democrats and 35% Republicans were polled (page 26) the results are not suprising...the fact that Romney did as well as he did should worry some of my 'left leaning friends'...
Click to expand...

LOL yeah plus 11 dem and you wonder why Obama's numbers "look good". Its because the poll was designed to have that outcome.
 
Zyphlin said:
How would you define a landslide?

Will Romney win more than 75% of the electoral votes? 75% more states than Obama does? 75% more popular vote? Would just like to know so we have some reference in the future.
Click to expand...

Yes.. id say 65% or greater...Im going to bet he loses NJ too..Pennsy I think is gone to Romney also..
 
Tettsuo said:
This is chess, not checkers. Obama is building a case by laying the groundwork early with these Bain and tax attacks, building a narrative that shows Romney can't be trusted. Romney is already on the defense and it's only July, so the attacks are working even if the polls don't show them to be all that effective. Once Obama starts giving us his vision of the next 4 years, Romney will be still talking about the Bain ads.

Romney has not giving anything about his vision for his Presidency other than I'm not Obama, but that was enough to push Obama on the defensive and keep him talking about his record. Obama needed to get out of that loop of trying to explain the situation again and have Conservatives say he's trying to pass the buck. Instead of doing that, he flipped it. Now Romney is trying to explain himself.

Good move on the president's part.
Click to expand...

Straight up delusional thinking if you believe that the President's messaging is part and parcel of some intelligent playbook he is thumbing through. The fact of the matter is that the President is deflecting from his own record in order to keep his pawns (ie. you) chattering about useless talking points instead of talking about the real issues. In case you haven't noticed, the populace are concerned about the economy. They know Romney is rich. They know he has business experience. They could care less about his tax returns. They want jobs, they want to pay their bills, they want to get off of food stamps, and they want to feel dignified again.

Your master, Barack Obama, has you as fooled today as you were in 2008 when you pulled the lever for him. That doesn't shine a very positive light on you or your liberal colleagues. Seriously.

The Lowest Common Denominator™ is who Barack Obama seeks to make his case to. You have fallen for it hook, line, and sinker. A slobbering love affair if there ever has been one. Intelligent liberals don't like Barack Obama. What does that say about those of you who parrot his talking points? I find that to be highly embarrassing for you and your types.
 
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zgoldsmith23 said:
Nice article by Wayne Root from TownHall. :roll:

He's literally playing odds. "If X happens, then Y." Well, if X doesn't happen, neither will Y? You can certainly make a great case that Romney will beat Obama, but not in a landslide as you so proclaim.

I'll list a few problems I can see people having with this article:

1. He has to mention Reagan. I forgot we have to pay heed to the man that killed the Commies, won us our Independence from those Mexican-Frenchies and reduced taxes to -34%.
2. He's an odds maker for Vegas. What? The hot dog vendor on the corner of the street wouldn't give you the answer you were looking for?
3. He continually uses "gut instinct" as if that is some form of sound reasoning.
Click to expand...


OK... now tell me which words he wrote that are "erroneous"?... I think he is spot on.. which demographisc is coming out more for Obama this go round? like he said Romney will start where McCain left off and he will not lose one of those voters..same cant be said for Obamabots..
 
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Travis007 said:
OK... now tell me which words he wrote that are "erroneous"?... I think he is spot on.. which demographisc is coming out more for Obama this go round? like he said Romney will start where McCain left off and he will not lose one of those voters..same cant be said for Obamabots..
Click to expand...

You forget the younger generation is entering the voting arena, whereas some of McCain's senior supporters are six-feet under.
 
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