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May 23, 2012
I have thought for some time that Romney is in the the same position as Kerry was. Both facing incumbent president with rapidly dropping popularity.
Kerry's looked like a dork when he came on the Democrat stage and announced, "I'm John Kerry and I am reporting for duty" while saluting. Who in hell advised him to do that? Kerry thought he could just coast on the anti-Bush fervor
Romney is seen as a member of the super elite rich in this country. Romney as Commander-in-Chief brings back that awkward memory of Kerry saluting on stage. This is a guy whom nobody in his family including his 5 adult males never felt the urge to serve in the military. Of course there will be a chorus of responses that Obama didn't serve and that is true but his grandfather did. But on the Romney side you have a huge number of males who sat back and let somebody else's son serve.
Just as shocked were we when Bush won the second time I think some people are going to be shocked in 2012.
Romney vs. Obama 2012 is looking a lot like Kerry vs. Bush 2004
Recent national and state-by-state polls by a variety of reputable polling firms indicate a tightening race between a controversial incumbent president and his challenger from Massachusetts, just as they did around this time in 2004. Then, as now, electoral prognosticators believed the outcome of the race would hinge on results from a few key states. And the 2012 opposition party, as it did in 2004, will likely nominate an establishment-backed “consensus” candidate, someone who "will do" as the nominee but who doesn’t quite pass the enthusiasm test with the party base in the same way Bill ClintonBill Clinton did in 1992 or Ronald ReaganRonald Reagan did in 1980, the last two times an incumbent U.S. president was defeated in his re-election bid.
As we all know, incumbent President George W. BushGeorge W. Bush was re-elected in 2004, but only by 120,000 or so votes in Ohio. Had John KerryJohn Kerry prevailed in the Buckeye State that year, he would have joined Reagan and Clinton in toppling an incumbent. But Kerry’s bid came up short, and there was a lot of post-mortem dissection of where his campaign went wrong. Bar room pundits, as well as those paid to talk or write before they went out for drinks, agreed that Kerry lost because so much of his message appeared to be about running against Bush and not on behalf of his own vision for the country.
At this point in the campaign, despite the tightening numbers, Obama seems to be in the driver’s seat. Unless Kerry can challenge his inner Reagan or Clinton -- or at least a truly likeable version of Willard Mitt RomneyMitt Romney – he appears doomed to fail. It’s important to remember that Bush’s favorability numbers dropped to 47 percent about three weeks before the 2004 election, but he still recovered in time to win. So unless Obama takes a big dive while Romney soars to heights as yet unattained, historical indicators are pointing toward Obama’s re-election.
I have thought for some time that Romney is in the the same position as Kerry was. Both facing incumbent president with rapidly dropping popularity.
Kerry's looked like a dork when he came on the Democrat stage and announced, "I'm John Kerry and I am reporting for duty" while saluting. Who in hell advised him to do that? Kerry thought he could just coast on the anti-Bush fervor
Romney is seen as a member of the super elite rich in this country. Romney as Commander-in-Chief brings back that awkward memory of Kerry saluting on stage. This is a guy whom nobody in his family including his 5 adult males never felt the urge to serve in the military. Of course there will be a chorus of responses that Obama didn't serve and that is true but his grandfather did. But on the Romney side you have a huge number of males who sat back and let somebody else's son serve.
Just as shocked were we when Bush won the second time I think some people are going to be shocked in 2012.
Romney vs. Obama 2012 is looking a lot like Kerry vs. Bush 2004