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Rasmussen is the most accurate polling service???

jdxprs

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from the research I've done, Rasmussen appears to be the most accurate, and is the only one i really bother keeping an eye on anymore.

does anyone dispute this or think some other service is more accurate/reliable?
 



Scott Rasmussen has been sending daily poll results and results of all his polls to my email since Obama ran against McCain.....he has gone consistently and steadily more to the right....to the point now, he even writes his own personal right wing rhetoric opnion pages in his emails.
His emails only have right wing commentary sent with them...mostly from Michael Barone.

I no longer consider his polls accurate or unbiased....maybe they are all biased...but his is obviously getting to a much higher degree
 
Rasmussen uses a tight "likely voter" net; which is a sample of the populace that leans right-ward. Ergo, in right-leaning elections, or in low-participation elections, his model will be more accurate, whereas in high-participation or left-leaning elections, his model will be less accurate.
 
from the research I've done, Rasmussen appears to be the most accurate, and is the only one i really bother keeping an eye on anymore.

does anyone dispute this or think some other service is more accurate/reliable?

Nate Silver at the NYTimes thinks otherwise
3. The proliferation of “robopoll” firms like SurveyUSA and Rasmussen Reports may in and of itself be a problem, or may exacerbate the other problems. About 60 percent of the polls in our database this year were conducted by automated polling firms. Some of them have achieved decent results in recent years. Rasmussen Reports and Public Policy Polling, for instance, have somewhat above-average track records, as measured by the accuracy of polls conducted close to Election Day. And SurveyUSA has had a considerably above-average performance.

But, automated polls are also associated with lower response rates. And some of the firms, like Rasmussen Reports, take other types of shortcuts, like conducting all of their polling in a single evening. Also, as we have mentioned, they almost never include cellphones in their samples. Therefore, it is open to question whether these firms can continue to perform on par with traditional pollsters.

Note that Silver does not say Rasmussen is bad, he does say the company has "somewhat above-average" results but that SurveyUSA has better results.

It is a long article and only one of four that Nate wrote about the accuracy of polling firms, worthwhile read.

Personally I prefer checking those sites which post charts or pages showing the average result from multiple polls.

RealClearPolitics.com/epolls

HuffingtonPost.com - Pollster

PollTracker
 
Rasmussen uses a tight "likely voter" net; which is a sample of the populace that leans right-ward. Ergo, in right-leaning elections, or in low-participation elections, his model will be more accurate, whereas in high-participation or left-leaning elections, his model will be less accurate.

He slants everything to the right as much as he can get away with...and hes getting more obvious every week with his right wing cheerleading opinion pieces....Ive been reading him daily for two years
 
Rasmussen uses a tight "likely voter" net; which is a sample of the populace that leans right-ward. Ergo, in right-leaning elections, or in low-participation elections, his model will be more accurate, whereas in high-participation or left-leaning elections, his model will be less accurate.

appreciate your opinion, but if this were true, why was Rasmussen so accurate in 2008? based on what you say, that year should have been extremely inaccurate for them, but they were actually one of the most accurate.
 
appreciate your opinion, but if this were true, why was Rasmussen so accurate in 2008? based on what you say, that year should have been extremely inaccurate for them, but they were actually one of the most accurate.


He wasn't. What makes you say he was?
 
In the 2010 Hawaii race, Rasmussen was 40 points out in their prediction for Inouye, giving him a 13 point lead, when he actually won with 53%!
 
In the 2010 Hawaii race, Rasmussen was 40 points out in their prediction for Inouye, giving him a 13 point lead, when he actually won with 53%!

damn. that's a big swing!!! how did they blow it that badly?
 
HE WAS. rasmussen called it 52 obama to 46 mcain with 1% to other candidate and 1% undecided in their final poll, 2 days before the election. it ended up 52.9 obama 45.6 mcain, which would indicate obama picked up the majority of the 1% undecided voters in the last two days before the election. Given obamas early popularity, that would make sense.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

It's not that hard to predict the result two days before the election.
 
Rasmussen only survives because Fox News likes them. And that association should tell you a lot.

The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.

Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued.

link
 
Don't take anyone else's word for it, look for yourself. While they are off on some states, they are almost exact on others. Look how many races they were LOW on the Republican side which was important to me when trying to decide if there's something to the Liberal complaints. I still stand by Rasmussen as the most accurate, that's my opinion though, see these for yourself:

Election 2010: How Did We Do? - Rasmussen Reports™
Final Rasmussen Poll Results - 2010 Governor Elections - Rasmussen Reports™
Election 2010: A Look At Polling in the Toss-Up States - Rasmussen Reports™

In 2008, Obama won 53%-46% and our final poll showed Obama winning 52% to 46%. While we were pleased with the final result, Rasmussen Reports was especially pleased with the stability of our results. On every single day for the last six weeks of the campaign, our daily tracking showed Obama with a stable and solid lead attracting more than 50% of the vote

In 2004 George W. Bush received 50.7% of the vote while John Kerry earned 48.3%. Rasmussen Reports polling projected that Bush would win 50.2% to 48.5%. We were the only firm to project both candidates' totals within half a percentage point by State-by-State Actual Results vs. Rasmussen Reports

You have to give credit when "talking heads" put their numbers and statements up for others to review after the fact.

erjeffery.blogspot.com
 
My problem with using the RCP average is that they include polls conducted by partisan firms for both sides.

Interesting. Which are partisan and which are the objective no axe to grind pollsters?
 
from the research I've done, Rasmussen appears to be the most accurate, and is the only one i really bother keeping an eye on anymore.

does anyone dispute this or think some other service is more accurate/reliable?

You only think it's accurate/ reliable because: Leans: Slightly Conservative
 
Rasmussen uses a tight "likely voter" net; which is a sample of the populace that leans right-ward. Ergo, in right-leaning elections, or in low-participation elections, his model will be more accurate, whereas in high-participation or left-leaning elections, his model will be less accurate.

From the 2008 election, Rasmussen and Pew were rated as the top polling services. People looking at polls should focus on the date of the polls, the weighting of the polls, and the sample, i.e. likely voters vs. all and registered

http://www.fordham.edu/images/acade...ccuracy in the 2008 presidential election.pdf
 
It's not that hard to predict the result two days before the election.

Watch all the polls about a week before the election as partisan sources try to improve their credibility and recover from biased previous reporting
 
I don't really follow any single poll with enough regularity to know which are accurate but I think it's interesting that the repeated "knock" on Rasmussen is his partisanship in that he writes Republican editorials, appears on Fox News, etc. No one seems to really dispute his accuracy though.

What does that say about left leaning posters who won't look at his polls because he's on Fox?

Does that mean you would rather follow a poll that shows Democrats winning in landslides even if it is wrong?
 
appreciate your opinion, but if this were true, why was Rasmussen so accurate in 2008? based on what you say, that year should have been extremely inaccurate for them, but they were actually one of the most accurate.

one of the most accurate in 2008 but not THE most accurate. CNN/OCR was more accurate as they dead on nailed the 2008 presidential race. So why ignore them?
 
In the 2010 Hawaii race, Rasmussen was 40 points out in their prediction for Inouye, giving him a 13 point lead, when he actually won with 53%!
Unless of course you understand what a poll is.
 
From the 2008 election, Rasmussen and Pew were rated as the top polling services. People looking at polls should focus on the date of the polls, the weighting of the polls, and the sample, i.e. likely voters vs. all and registered

http://www.fordham.edu/images/acade...ccuracy in the 2008 presidential election.pdf

You debate like a whack-a-mole mole. Destroy your position on something and you pop up somewhere else spouting the same debunked nonsense.

I've already debunked your fordham U. study at least once before. CNN/OCR were more accurate than both Rasmussen and pew ... And pew was way off with their 49/42 prediction; there were several others closer thean pew.



WH2008: General
 
HE WAS. rasmussen called it 52 obama to 46 mcain with 1% to other candidate and 1% undecided in their final poll, 2 days before the election. it ended up 52.9 obama 45.6 mcain, which would indicate obama picked up the majority of the 1% undecided voters in the last two days before the election. Given obamas early popularity, that would make sense.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

I think it's pretty unreasonable to judge an entire polling firm based on one single poll. Yes, I care about who had the most accurate final poll of the presidential race, but in order to see who was the most accurate you need to include alot of polls, average them all out and see who was most accurate, and see if any polling firms were way outside the norm the entire time and then moved their conclusions more towards the center at the very end so that they could appear unbiased. Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com is one of the best statisticians out there and his models that are comprised of all the national and some local polls are incredibly accurate. His thorough review of Rasmussen in the 2010 elections is a must read in my opinion. He doesn't just come out and say that they purposefully skew the polls towards republicans. He tells you how they conduct their polls and why their methods lead to inconsistent and biased polling.

Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly - NYTimes.com

The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.

Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued.

They spell it out in plain numbers, so you can't really argue that he isn't giving Rasmussen a fair shake. Numbers are numbers.
 
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