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Bill O'Reilly: Why President Obama would lose if the election were held tomorrow

proud2Bcatholic

proud2Bcatholic

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Bill O'Reilly: Why President Obama would lose if the election were held tomorrow
>> LINK W/ VIDEO

By Bill O'Reilly

Once again "T-Points" is an oracle. In my newspaper column last week I opined that if the presidential election were held tomorrow Mitt Romney would defeat Barack Obama. You can read that column on BillOReilly.com.

And today... today the Federal Reserve Board backing up my contention that economic fear could very well defeat President Obama. According to the fed, the median net worth of American families has plunged by 39 percent in just three years. Median means the middle point of any group. So, for some Americans their net worth is down much more than 39 percent.

Median income fell eight percent from 2007 to 2010. And the value of American home equity has fallen 32 percent in three years. "Grim" doesn't even begin to cover it.

The truth is that the awful economy is not entirely Barack Obama's fault. The recession began under President Bush. However... and this is big... Mr. Obama continues to believe that massive federal spending will turn the economy around. But there are no facts to back that up. Things are stagnating and even getting worse in some places.

Thus undecided voters must decide whether the President deserves to be re-elected based once again on hope. Or whether Mitt Romney who wants to allow the private sector it drive the economy should be given a chance. To me, undecided voters will break for Romney in the face of a very bad economic picture.

Now, I could be wrong. But recently "The Factor" has been very accurate in assessing the state of the union. The last big mistake I made was predicting Hillary Clinton would defeat Barack Obama in the primaries.

The election this year will be all about performance. And right now the Obama administration is performing poorly. They'll say that's not true. But the fed stats today are devastating.

And that's "The Memo."
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Of the Fox News commentators, I think O'Reilly is the most fair and Balanced. However, I disagree with him on his prediction. Obama still leads Romney by a little bit in the polls and most of the time the democrats tend to squeeze out a couple of extra points than what the polls predict.

IMHO its going to come down performance in the swing states. To illustrate: Obama is going to win California, New York and Illinois; Romney is going to win Texas, Georgia and Utah. Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia will decide this. At my last calibration, all Obama needs to be re-elected is to win one of those four. Romney needs three of the four. Of course, this depends on keeping all the sure bet states and it looks like Wisconsin and Iowa could be possibly be in play. I was able to accurately predict Obama's win in 2008 hours before the networks called the election based only on his winning Virginia and safe assumptions on the likely blue states. All you need to do is declare the winner in the close swing states and you can call the winner, in my humble opinion.

Check this out: 2012 Electoral Map - Create Your Prediction! I gave Romney WI, IN, IA, and MA since its his home states although I think Obama will win there. The rest are by sure bet predictions and four toss up battle-ground states in grey. All Obama needs is one of them. Close but I think its Obama's race to lose. After the conventions we'll see if Romney can flip some blue states to his side. Anyhoo, this is a fun interactive Electoral College map you can play with.
 
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^ Actually, Rasmussen has Romney ahead by 4 points among likely voters
 
Smeagol said:
Of the Fox News commentators, I think O'Reilly is the most fair and Balanced. However, I disagree with him on his prediction. Obama still leads Romney by a little bit in the polls and most of the time the democrats tend to squeeze out a couple of extra points than what the polls predict.

IMHO its going to come down performance in the swing states. To illustrate: Obama is going to win California, New York and Illinois; Romney is going to win Texas, Georgia and Utah. Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia will decide this. At my last calibration, all Obama needs to be re-elected is to win one of those four. Romney needs three of the four. Of course, this depends on keeping all the sure bet states and it looks like Wisconsin and Iowa could be possibly be in play. I was able to accurately predict Obama's win in 2008 hours before the networks called the election based only on his winning Virginia and safe assumptions on the likely blue states. All you need to do is declare the winner in the close swing states and you can call the winner, in my humble opinion.

Check this out: 2012 Electoral Map - Create Your Prediction! I gave Romney WI, IN, IA, and MA since its his home states although I think Obama will win there. The rest are by sure bet predictions and four toss up battle-ground states in grey. All Obama needs is one of them. Close but I think its Obama's race to lose. After the conventions we'll see if Romney can flip some blue states to his side. Anyhoo, this is a fun interactive Electoral College map you can play with.
Click to expand...

2012 Electoral Map - Create Your Prediction!

Mine came out slightly different. I gave Mitt Mass, NH and Michigan for the homeboy factor, I also plugged WI in for Obama. If Mitt can win in PA, it's over, or in 2 out of Ohio, NC and VA.

It's definitely close though. It's not a slam dunk for anybody yet.
 
proud2Bcatholic said:
Bill O'Reilly: Why President Obama would lose if the election were held tomorrow
>> LINK W/ VIDEO
Click to expand...

But we do know what cuts in Govt. spending has done to Europe..it has put them baclk into recession. That is Romney's plan too, because recessions benefit the rich.. How stupid can people get?
Do all of you want another recession and more job losses?
 
proud2Bcatholic said:
Bill O'Reilly: Why President Obama would lose if the election were held tomorrow
>> LINK W/ VIDEO
Click to expand...

Well, I guess political predictions are better than sexually harrassing interns. I'm guessing he'll be equally successful with the former as he was with the latter.
 
None of the electoral college polls agree with him. Obama has been ahead and will remain so wire to wire. It will be funny to hear the recriminations and call for the elimination of the electoral college now that it will have advantaged Obama twice. Republicans will 180 on the issue the have championed for a generation. Fealty to tribe makes hypocrites.
 
Smeagol said:
Of the Fox News commentators, I think O'Reilly is the most fair and Balanced. However, I disagree with him on his prediction. Obama still leads Romney by a little bit in the polls and most of the time the democrats tend to squeeze out a couple of extra points than what the polls predict.

IMHO its going to come down performance in the swing states. To illustrate: Obama is going to win California, New York and Illinois; Romney is going to win Texas, Georgia and Utah. Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia will decide this. At my last calibration, all Obama needs to be re-elected is to win one of those four. Romney needs three of the four. Of course, this depends on keeping all the sure bet states and it looks like Wisconsin and Iowa could be possibly be in play. I was able to accurately predict Obama's win in 2008 hours before the networks called the election based only on his winning Virginia and safe assumptions on the likely blue states. All you need to do is declare the winner in the close swing states and you can call the winner, in my humble opinion.

Check this out: 2012 Electoral Map - Create Your Prediction! I gave Romney WI, IN, IA, and MA since its his home states although I think Obama will win there. The rest are by sure bet predictions and four toss up battle-ground states in grey. All Obama needs is one of them. Close but I think its Obama's race to lose. After the conventions we'll see if Romney can flip some blue states to his side. Anyhoo, this is a fun interactive Electoral College map you can play with.
Click to expand...
Obama has never in his entire career had to contest an election like this one. Running on his self-created mythology is history, and I'm not sure he has anything else in him.
 
rocket88 said:
2012 Electoral Map - Create Your Prediction!

Mine came out slightly different. I gave Mitt Mass, NH and Michigan for the homeboy factor, I also plugged WI in for Obama. If Mitt can win in PA, it's over, or in 2 out of Ohio, NC and VA.

It's definitely close though. It's not a slam dunk for anybody yet.
Click to expand...

You think Romney's going to win Massachusetts? Michigan's even stretching it a little bit.

Anyway if the election were held tomorrow, Obama would win. He's ahead right now in MI, OH, PA, VA, NH, and NV. And he's about tied in WI, IA, FL, and CO. But he doesn't even need any of the last four. Of course this means nothing for the election five months from now.
 
Tomfoolery said:
None of the electoral college polls agree with him. Obama has been ahead and will remain so wire to wire. It will be funny to hear the recriminations and call for the elimination of the electoral college now that it will have advantaged Obama twice. Republicans will 180 on the issue the have championed for a generation. Fealty to tribe makes hypocrites.
Click to expand...

And shoot ourselves in the foot. Liberals would own America forever if we got rid of the EC. All it would take to win the White House every time is to do well in New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston, Seattle, San Fransisco, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Washington DC and Boston metro areas. The rest of the country wouldn't count. This I fear would lead to polarization between urban centers and rural America. Whole states would no longer effectively have any say in the selection of the POTUS. I agree, there would be knee jerk calls for doing away with the EC but if conservatives were smart they'd keep quite about it.
 
Anagram said:
You think Romney's going to win Massachusetts? Michigan's even stretching it a little bit.

Anyway if the election were held tomorrow, Obama would win. He's ahead right now in MI, OH, PA, VA, NH, and NV. And he's about tied in WI, IA, FL, and CO. But he doesn't even need any of the last four. Of course this means nothing for the election five months from now.
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If Obama thought he was going to lose Mass all he had to do was put out an add that said Big Dig: Mitt Romney and it would piss off pretty much all of Boston and the surronding areas.
 
Anagram said:
You think Romney's going to win Massachusetts? Michigan's even stretching it a little bit.

Anyway if the election were held tomorrow, Obama would win. He's ahead right now in MI, OH, PA, VA, NH, and NV. And he's about tied in WI, IA, FL, and CO. But he doesn't even need any of the last four. Of course this means nothing for the election five months from now.
Click to expand...


I agree. You don't get too much more liberal than Massachusetts and Romney is a four letter word in Michigan right now because he opposed the auto bailouts that saved the Michigan economy from going into a cold war era Eastern Europe style depression. Plus last I hear Obama was leading by double digits in PA. Ohio, Florida and Virginia is where the campaign will be waged. Maybe North Carolina too. Romney can still win but probably wont. The Republicans, I'm sad to say have alienated too many people:

-Women voters who are told you can't have birth control pills unless your boss says its okay (I know its a stretch but that's how its received).
-Blacks who are being told he really isn't black, we hate Black history Month so get over it but happy St. Patrick's Day and very other European connected holiday while we send some more money to the Zimmerman defense fund and watch how innocent he is on our conservative media outlets.
-Latinos go to jail in Arizona for looking too Hispanic, we're going to adopt similar laws in every state we can and if you don't like it go back to Mexico.
-Younger voters who are told to pay higher interest rates on student loans.
etc., etc., etc.

It'll be close because of the poor economy and gay marriage didn't get him any new votes but I think Obama is back in for four more years.
 
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Smeagol said:
Of the Fox News commentators, I think O'Reilly is the most fair and Balanced. However, I disagree with him on his prediction. Obama still leads Romney by a little bit in the polls and most of the time the democrats tend to squeeze out a couple of extra points than what the polls predict.

IMHO its going to come down performance in the swing states. To illustrate: Obama is going to win California, New York and Illinois; Romney is going to win Texas, Georgia and Utah. Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia will decide this. At my last calibration, all Obama needs to be re-elected is to win one of those four. Romney needs three of the four. Of course, this depends on keeping all the sure bet states and it looks like Wisconsin and Iowa could be possibly be in play. I was able to accurately predict Obama's win in 2008 hours before the networks called the election based only on his winning Virginia and safe assumptions on the likely blue states. All you need to do is declare the winner in the close swing states and you can call the winner, in my humble opinion.

Check this out: 2012 Electoral Map - Create Your Prediction! I gave Romney WI, IN, IA, and MA since its his home states although I think Obama will win there. The rest are by sure bet predictions and four toss up battle-ground states in grey. All Obama needs is one of them. Close but I think its Obama's race to lose. After the conventions we'll see if Romney can flip some blue states to his side. Anyhoo, this is a fun interactive Electoral College map you can play with.
Click to expand...

Shep Smith is the only not-bonkers person in the freaking building.
 
Deuce said:
Shep Smith is the only not-bonkers person in the freaking building.
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Shep is the best. I also like Huckabee most of the time and the Lauren Green. Interestingly I use to think Geraldo was a nut until he got to Fox News.
 
Smeagol said:
Shep is the best. I also like Huckabee most of the time and the Lauren Green. Interestingly I use to think Geraldo was a nut until he got to Fox News.
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He's still a nut.
 
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