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Where will Obama's SSM Declaration hurt him electorally?

Where did President Obama's Reelection Campaign just get a bit harder?

  • Total voters
    19
cpwill

cpwill

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Not surprisingly, the correct option is not in your poll. The correct answer is nowhere, the people who might actually vote on the issue are not going to be swayed by what he said. If they are against SSM enough to vote on that issue, they where already not going to vote for Obama, and vice versa.
 
:shrug: I don't know if it will switch many folks votes. I think the help/hinder is more in terms of boost/depress turnout.
 
cpwill said:
:shrug: I don't know if it will switch many folks votes. I think the help/hinder is more in terms of boost/depress turnout.
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I do not see that really either.
 
out of curiousity, though, I wonder whether the logic of the response to this question on the part of the left will match the logic of their claims that placing SSM measures on the ballots in swing states in 2004 was a "Dirty Trick" on the part of Karl Rove.
 
Redress said:
I do not see that really either.
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you've got a lot of demographics with pretty heavy overlap in traditional democrat support, but significant opposition to SSM, and the battle for Obama in 2012 was always one to try to rejuvenate an already depressed base. hard to imagine this has no effects in that regard.
 
If this hurts Obama, it will hurt him in Iowa, Pennsylvania, and NC. Those states have large populations of protestant evangelicals, and that's the one demographic that Obama could lose by this announcement. Do I think it's going to make a big difference? No, probably not. At best, this might give Romney .5% more in those states.
 
cpwill said:
you've got a lot of demographics with pretty heavy overlap in traditional democrat support, but significant opposition to SSM, and the battle for Obama in 2012 was always one to try to rejuvenate an already depressed base. hard to imagine this has no effects in that regard.
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He needs to rejuvenate the young people. College students and those of my generation are the ones he wants to get out voting for him. And, same sex marriage is one of those issues that younger voters support in massive numbers more than older people. And many college students look at same sex marriage as their opportunity to be involved in a civil rights issue, whether others want to admit it is one or not. They have a President who says he is for giving equal rights to a group that many students view as not being treated equally or fairly. This could easily help him get those students out voting because of this issue.

I think that it will do very little, in itself to energize the conservative base in the opposite direction though. It just isn't really that big of a step away from what he already said he believed.
 
Obama just showed the country how a leader is supposed to act.

He risked everything, ignored his advisers, and therefore will win everything.

Congrats to President Obama.
 
roguenuke said:
He needs to rejuvenate the young people. College students and those of my generation are the ones he wants to get out voting for him.
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Those too. He also needs blacks and hispanics - who poll in his favor, but who are traditionally tougher to get to the polls (along with younger types). And it is also true that the younger generation has pretty much fallen off the cliff in their level of enthusiasm. The job market is fairly brutal, and Hope doesn't seem to have been delivered as promised. I'm just not sure it's going to bring out many that wouldn't have already been coming out - especially coming so early. That's one thing that makes sense to me on this one - the word leaking that the White House wanted to do this as they came up on the Convention to stir up excitement. We'll see if it flags as every week they wake up and go to their underemployed dead end job with student debt hanging over their head.
 
hazlnut said:
Obama just showed the country how a leader is supposed to act.

He risked everything, ignored his advisers...
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just like George Bush ordering the Surge? :)
 
cpwill said:
Those too. He also needs blacks and hispanics - who poll in his favor, but who are traditionally tougher to get to the polls (along with younger types). And it is also true that the younger generation has pretty much fallen off the cliff in their level of enthusiasm. The job market is fairly brutal, and Hope doesn't seem to have been delivered as promised. I'm just not sure it's going to bring out many that wouldn't have already been coming out - especially coming so early. That's one thing that makes sense to me on this one - the word leaking that the White House wanted to do this as they came up on the Convention to stir up excitement. We'll see if it flags as every week they wake up and go to their underemployed dead end job with student debt hanging over their head.
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But I don't see most college students looking at Romney as a solution to their student debt or dead end jobs.

And this could have more of a trickle down effect in it (I know I stole that, it just fits). You get college professors excited about Obama with this announcement. Plus, those students, in college and even Srs. in HS, who are LGBT supporters start getting excited and passing the word and holding rallies about how Obama is finally supporting their cause. It certainly may not be enough, but it could be.

And this is all in comparison to what Romney can pull out, particularly on this incident. Is it going to rally Romney's base for him, against Obama, enough to counter any upward motion Obama gets? It might but I'm not sure this is going to be enough.

Now, there is like 6 more months til the election so we will likely see many things like this from both Romney and Obama. Heck, Romney put out, I think today, about how he is for a "Life Begins at Conception Amendment". It is likely that these will go back and forth til Nov.
 
Probably when the supreme court rules on the California prop 8 case, this will turn out to have helped Obama substantially. Taking a stand, especially right one, both morally and constitutionally, as opposed to being wishy washy, will strengthen Obama's position as a leader.
 
Where?

Any backwards red state with so-called Christians practicing their brand of tolerance.

gay-bashing-atlanta.jpg
 
roguenuke said:
He needs to rejuvenate the young people. College students and those of my generation are the ones he wants to get out voting for him. And, same sex marriage is one of those issues that younger voters support in massive numbers more than older people. And many college students look at same sex marriage as their opportunity to be involved in a civil rights issue, whether others want to admit it is one or not. They have a President who says he is for giving equal rights to a group that many students view as not being treated equally or fairly. This could easily help him get those students out voting because of this issue.

I think that it will do very little, in itself to energize the conservative base in the opposite direction though. It just isn't really that big of a step away from what he already said he believed.
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Bad idea. We can't mobilize to vote worth a damn. We congratulate young people for voting more than they had before, which is a consolation prize to a demographic worth less than many others.
 
Paschendale said:
Probably when the supreme court rules on the California prop 8 case, this will turn out to have helped Obama substantially. Taking a stand, especially right one, both morally and constitutionally, as opposed to being wishy washy, will strengthen Obama's position as a leader.
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not sure what exactly stand he took as it relates to his job as president. As I understand it he gave a position and then said it is up to the states. If so his position should be meaningless other than to pander to a segment of the population as he continues to divide look for a few more cheap votes. Sort of like the Gingrich moon colony in Florida.

Hardly anything that will shine a light on Obama as a leader.
 
The only place this will make a difference is with Democratic closet gays.
 
Nick2253 said:
If this hurts Obama, it will hurt him in Iowa, Pennsylvania, and NC. Those states have large populations of protestant evangelicals, and that's the one demographic that Obama could lose by this announcement. Do I think it's going to make a big difference? No, probably not. At best, this might give Romney .5% more in those states.
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Pssht. Please don't put my state in with North Carolina. We have legalized gay marriage, remember? :)
 
roguenuke said:
But I don't see most college students looking at Romney as a solution to their student debt or dead end jobs.
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true enough - but I think you keep underestimating the likelihood that lots of folks will sit this election out.

And this could have more of a trickle down effect in it (I know I stole that, it just fits). You get college professors excited about Obama with this announcement. Plus, those students, in college and even Srs. in HS, who are LGBT supporters start getting excited and passing the word and holding rallies about how Obama is finally supporting their cause. It certainly may not be enough, but it could be.
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eh, I tend to doubt it. Obama isn't new and cool anymore; and though this is.... it's also May.

And this is all in comparison to what Romney can pull out, particularly on this incident. Is it going to rally Romney's base for him, against Obama, enough to counter any upward motion Obama gets? It might but I'm not sure this is going to be enough.
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I think this becomes a base election with Democrats playing with a heavily depressed base. Republicans are about as fired up to sweep out the current administration, and Democrats are almost as "meh" in their feelings towards it as the reversed positions in 2006.

Now, there is like 6 more months til the election so we will likely see many things like this from both Romney and Obama. Heck, Romney put out, I think today, about how he is for a "Life Begins at Conception Amendment". It is likely that these will go back and forth til Nov.
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Did he just put that out - or did it just nowstart getting play?
 
I don't think it will, this issue isn't going to be the one that causes black people to not support him, and it will excite his base, and I don't think it will excite the conservative base against him.
 
Your Star said:
I don't think it will, this issue isn't going to be the one that causes black people to not support him, and it will excite his base, and I don't think it will excite the conservative base against him.
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I think it can rally conservatives, but I see little point. There was little indication for Obama's proactive approach (with the WSJ saying that WH aides are denying anything more than support for state ventures).
 
I think that it's almost sad same sex marriage is such a heated topic compared to our real problems. To the real topic though i think that this will defintetly hurt him with rural populations no doubt about it but it alot of cities this should help him so it really depends on the voter turn-out I geuss. I think that this is close to what the president needs though. I think he needs to show some assertivness in his actions and stances like he should have these past few years, but there's nothing we can do about that now so he can only do the best he can from here on out.
 
cpwill said:
I have listed the swing states from this site] I'm thinking Indiana is long gone (they don't even list it as a swing state, despite it going for Obama in 2008), and North Carolina and Virginia are gone; but that SSM isn't what seals the deal, but rather makes it a bit more so. Florida, I'm thinking, is a harder battle for him now, as well as Nevada, where there is a large Mormon population and Iowa, where there is alot of evangelicals. New Hampshire this might help him. Colorado, Ohio, and Pa... :shrug: I think no real result.
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I wonder if Romney could use this to his advantage by playing to the social conservatives which weren't his first group of supporters. If he can double-down on the moderate part of him, including selecting a moderate VP as opposed to normal wisdom which would suggest a social conservative, he may pull independant voters a little better and then basically say to the social conservatives "I'm with you on gay marriage and even if you don't like everything about me this is a fight for marriage!" Maybe pulling some out of their homes if the polls and other information suggest they may say home instead.
 
kerussll said:
Pssht. Please don't put my state in with North Carolina. We have legalized gay marriage, remember? :)
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A plurality of people in Iowa are against gay marriage. Though you are probably right. If there is an effect, it won't be nearly as significant in Iowa as NC or Penn.
 
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