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Dem Senator "Doesn't Know" if he's going to vote for Obama['W:189]

Re: Dem Senator "Doesn't Know" if he's going to vote for Obama

Harshaw said:
Then I got it right. :shrug: You were suggesting this is a political move on his part rather than his sincere disapproval
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As I said:
It doesn't really matter if it's because he sincerely doesn't know how he's going to vote, or if he's just telling people what they want to hear. In either case, the political incentives are such that this shouldn't exactly come as a shock.
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I'm not sure what's difficult to understand about that. I don't know what Joe Manchin "sincerely believes" versus what he wants people to think he believes, nor do I really care. In either case, I don't think there's anything particularly noteworthy about a West Virginia Democrat wanting to distance himself from an incumbent Democratic president who is unpopular in his state.
 
Re: Dem Senator "Doesn't Know" if he's going to vote for Obama

Kandahar said:
As I said:


I'm not sure what's difficult to understand about that. I don't know what Joe Manchin "sincerely believes" versus what he wants people to think he believes, nor do I really care. In either case, I don't think there's anything particularly noteworthy about a West Virginia Democrat wanting to distance himself from an incumbent Democratic president who is unpopular in his state.
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You're being unusually eel-like today. In any case, I understood the "emoticon" perfectly.
 
Re: Dem Senator "Doesn't Know" if he's going to vote for Obama

Harshaw said:
You're being unusually eel-like today. In any case, I understood the "emoticon" perfectly.
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Wonderful. I prefer to discuss the topic of the thread rather than the meaning of emoticons, but you can discuss whatever you'd like. :roll:

(FYI: The roll-eyes emoticon can express sarcasm and/or irritation.)
 
Re: Dem Senator "Doesn't Know" if he's going to vote for Obama

Kandahar said:
Wonderful. I prefer to discuss the topic of the thread rather than the meaning of emoticons, but you can discuss whatever you'd like. :roll:
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Dude . . . you said I got it wrong. I didn't. Then you . . . massaged your position.

(FYI: The roll-eyes emoticon can express sarcasm and/or irritation.)
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Aren't you cute?
 
Re: Dem Senator "Doesn't Know" if he's going to vote for Obama

Harshaw said:
Dude . . . you said I got it wrong.
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He did? Where did he say that? Post the quote where he said you got it wrong.
 
Re: Dem Senator "Doesn't Know" if he's going to vote for Obama

Kandahar said:
:lol: You have now made six posts about a freaking emoticon.
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No, they're actually about what you were saying, emphasized by the emoticon, which you said I misunderstood, but then confirmed I didn't (while shifting your position to say it "doesn't matter"). :shrug: I can't help it if AdamT interloped to accuse me of lying about what you said.
 
Re: Dem Senator "Doesn't Know" if he's going to vote for Obama

Harshaw said:
No, they're actually about what you were saying,
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Except you never actually responded to what I said. You just went on a bizarre tirade about a waving smiley face.
 
Re: Dem Senator "Doesn't Know" if he's going to vote for Obama

Let's see if we can settle this controvercy...

Kandahar said:
Has that outcome ever been in doubt?
Or maybe he's a senator who is up for reelection from a state where Obama's approval rating is among the lowest in the country. :2wave:
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Offering a p;ossible reason and stating it is not for certain.

Harshaw said:
Is it therefore inconceiveable that he shares in the disapproval?

Bringing this up with the little "wave" seems to indicate you think he doesn't.
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Nothing in his post in dicates that is not possible.

Kandahar said:
Obama's approval rating in West Virginia is lower than in almost any other state in the country; he almost certainly isn't planning to compete in West Virginia and the state will almost certainly vote for Romney for president this fall (barring some sort of epic collapse). So it's not surprising that a Democratic senator from West Virginia who is up for reelection is going to distance himself from Obama. It doesn't really matter if it's because he sincerely doesn't know how he's going to vote, or if he's just telling people what they want to hear. In either case, the political incentives are such that this shouldn't exactly come as a shock.
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Says the motive may be(which is not the same as saying it is) politically motivated, and that it does not matter as the outcome is the same.

Harshaw said:
Then I got it right. :shrug: You were suggesting this is a political move on his part rather than his sincere disapproval, and the little wave was meant to emphasize it.
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Distortion and misrepresentation. Sorry, but when you take what some one else says, change the meaning, and try and claim that is what they are saying, you are distorting and misrepresenting their words.
 
Re: Dem Senator "Doesn't Know" if he's going to vote for Obama

Redress said:
No ****? Gee, so clever. This has what to do with the spelling of his name in this country? PROTIP: the US is not an Arab country, nor do we speak Arabic nor use the Arabic alphabet.
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What is official language of the US?
 
Re: Dem Senator "Doesn't Know" if he's going to vote for Obama

Redress said:
Let's see if we can settle this controvercy...



Offering a p;ossible reason and stating it is not for certain.



Nothing in his post in dicates that is not possible.



Says the motive may be(which is not the same as saying it is) politically motivated, and that it does not matter as the outcome is the same.



Distortion and misrepresentation. Sorry, but when you take what some one else says, change the meaning, and try and claim that is what they are saying, you are distorting and misrepresenting their words.
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Yeah, 'coz you were ever going to take my side on this. :lamo
 
Re: Dem Senator "Doesn't Know" if he's going to vote for Obama

Redress said:
We have none, which is irrelevant.
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That's right there is none. People can speak or write in any language they wish. So nobody here speaks Arabic or writes in Arabic?
 
Re: Dem Senator "Doesn't Know" if he's going to vote for Obama

Kandahar said:
Except you never actually responded to what I said. You just went on a bizarre tirade about a waving smiley face.
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Look.

You were suggesting that his statement was one of political calculation, rather than his own sincere view.

Then, when called on it, you said it didn't matter.

But if it didn't matter, you wouldn't have had much reason to bring it up in the first place.
 
Re: Dem Senator "Doesn't Know" if he's going to vote for Obama

Harshaw said:
Yeah, 'coz you were ever going to take my side on this. :lamo
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Well that would be because you are wrong.
 
Re: Dem Senator "Doesn't Know" if he's going to vote for Obama

Rapunzel52 said:
That's right there is none. People can speak or write in any language they wish. So nobody here speaks Arabic or writes in Arabic?
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Again irrelevant. My surname comes from German but is spelled wrong by german standards. My first name is Irish and properly would be spelled different. However, some one spelling them properly for their original place of origin would be spelling my name wrong.

Or let me ask you this: do you spell the name of some one of Japanese heritage in Katakana?
 
Re: Mitt Romney doesn't just draw swing voters, he draws swing Senators II

washunut said:
Let's see, the senator from a huge coal producing state says he might vote against the guy who wants to shut down the coal industry amazing. I would call that trying to survive politically.
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That's what I found interesting about this. Not that WV would go Red in 2012, but how severely.

Manchin's race isn't (as far as I know) considered to be particularly competitive. He's expected to pretty much pick it up and keep rolling. If he's coming out and saying stuff like this, then I see that as meaning that he believes that an opponent capable of running ad clips of him saying he would support his own party's choice for president might change that math.

my secondary question is; does this open the door for a potential party switch?

that's what is interesting.
 
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Re: Dem Senator "Doesn't Know" if he's going to vote for Obama

Harshaw said:
Look.

You were suggesting that his statement was one of political calculation, rather than his own sincere view.
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No, I said that the political incentives are such that it isn't surprising that a senator from West Virginia up for reelection wants to distance himself from Obama. That does not preclude the possibility that it's his "sincere view." Politicians can sincerely believe something and still be encouraged or discouraged by the political winds to express that view publicly. (e.g. Rudy Giuliani avoiding talking about his sincere pro-choice views during the 2008 primary as much as possible, versus Rick Santorum loudly trumpeting his sincere pro-life views during the 2012 primary.)

Then, when called on it, you said it didn't matter.
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I have no idea how one would ever determine whether Manchin's doubts about voting for Obama are "sincere" or not, since they aren't particularly inconsistent with his previous record. So I don't know why you're even going on this tangent in the first place. Just spell it out: what point are you trying to make? How is anything whatsoever changed if he's being "sincere" versus if he's just telling people what they want to hear?

But if it didn't matter, you wouldn't have had much reason to bring it up in the first place.
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YOU are the one who brought up the crap about his sincerity; I neither know nor care whether Manchin has some heartfelt doubts about Obama. That doesn't change the objective reality of West Virginia politics which will push him towards distancing himself from Obama this election cycle.
 
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Re: Dem Senator "Doesn't Know" if he's going to vote for Obama

Kandahar said:
No, I said that the political incentives are such that it isn't surprising that a senator from West Virginia up for reelection wants to distance himself from Obama. That does not preclude the possibility that it's his "sincere view." Politicians can sincerely believe something and still be encouraged or discouraged by the political winds to express that view publicly. (e.g. Rudy Giuliani avoiding talking about his sincere pro-choice views during the 2008 primary as much as possible, versus Rick Santorum loudly trumpeting his sincere pro-life views during the 2012 primary.)



I have no idea how one would ever determine whether Manchin's doubts about voting for Obama are "sincere" or not, since they aren't particularly inconsistent with his previous record. So I don't know why you're even going on this tangent in the first place. What point are you trying to make? How is anything whatsoever changed if he's being "sincere" versus if he's just telling people what they want to hear?



YOU are the one who brought up the crap about his sincerity; I neither know nor care whether Manchin has some heartfelt doubts about Obama. That doesn't change the objective reality of West Virginia politics which will push him towards distancing himself from Obama this election cycle.
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Whatever, dude. It's pretty clear what you meant, especially as yes, the emoticon emphasized it.
 
Re: Dem Senator "Doesn't Know" if he's going to vote for Obama

Redress said:
Well that would be because you are wrong.
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And you aren't exactly an impartial observer on this.
 
Re: Mitt Romney doesn't just draw swing voters, he draws swing Senators II

cpwill said:
That's what I found interesting about this. Not that WV would go Red in 2012, but how severely.
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West Virginia has been becoming more and more Republican over the last several election cycles. Rural Appalachia and the majority-white counties of the Deep South were virtually the only places in America that actually voted MORE Republican in 2008 than in 2004. Presumably, this trend has continued since then in West Virginia, since as far as I know there haven't been any major demographic shifts that would suggest otherwise. McCain's margin of victory over Obama in West Virginia was 13%, and I suspect that Romney's will be at least as large if not considerably larger.

Manchin's race isn't (as far as I know) considered to be particularly competitive. He's expected to pretty much pick it up and keep rolling. If he's coming out and saying stuff like this, then I see that as meaning that he believes that an opponent capable of running ad clips of him saying he would support his own party's choice for president might change that math.
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I think that would be a concern of any politician running for office in a state where the incumbent president's approval rating is so deeply underwater. As for his race being noncompetitive...at this point I think you are right, but there's enough time between now and the election that things could change; Manchin probably doesn't want to take any chances.

my secondary question is; does this open the door for a potential party switch?
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Ehh...maybe a few years down the road if the circumstances are right. I doubt he's going to switch any time soon though. Generally when politicians switch parties (at least in the last couple decades) it's due to something more than just a general dissatisfaction with the direction of the party. In the 21st century, I think there have only been two switchers in the Senate: Jim Jeffords and Arlen Specter. And both of them did it for their own personal interests: Jeffords was mad that the Republicans wouldn't give him some pork money that he wanted, and Specter didn't want to run for reelection in a Republican primary.

I think that just generally disliking Obama won't be enough to make Manchin switch parties. Other senators have voiced a dislike for their presidential candidates or even supported their opponent (Linc Chaffee in 2004, Zell Miller in 2004, Joe Lieberman in 2008), without actually switching to caucus with the other party. I do think that Manchin will continue to be a thorn in Obama's side though, especially prior to this year's election.
 
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Re: Dem Senator "Doesn't Know" if he's going to vote for Obama

Redress said:
No ****? Gee, so clever. This has what to do with the spelling of his name in this country? PROTIP: the US is not an Arab country, nor do we speak Arabic nor use the Arabic alphabet.
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psst... (Obama wasn't named for someone in this country... he was named after his family member in Kenya... whose swahili version of the Arabic name was Obama...)

However, if we are going to be accurate here... when a practicing Muslim he was actually Barry Soetoro...
 
Re: Dem Senator "Doesn't Know" if he's going to vote for Obama

JohnWOlin said:
I really don't find it surprising, anymore than when a New England based republican votes with democrats. Electorally West Virginia doesn't matter a lot. You won't see either candidate concentrate very hard on it. Now if you said a democrat from North Carolina or Ohio wasn't sure, that would actually be interesting.
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Electorially WV has 5 delegates... and is part of the coal vote... Which former Democratic Presidential candidates have taken advantage of in the past... (like say JFK)... When the coal industry is hurting, Dems rush to WV for the vote (this time that won't work, they're hurting the coal industry)... The coal vote isn't just limited to WV though... it's there in nearby battleground state of PA, VA, and NC...

So, Arlen Spector of PA has already made this claim
now Manchin of WV is making the claim...

and a Republican congressman put forth a bill to impeach the president...
 
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