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I have been looking at the electoral college math and it basically boils down to this if you believe the site 2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College
Of the states that are listed as being toss ups--they are listed below, Obama basically needs to win five of the states listed below in blue; almost any combination assures him 270.
Nevada
Colorado
New Mexico
Missouri
Wisconsin
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Ohio
New Hampshire
Virginia
North Carolina
Florida
Of the states listed in blue, Wisconsin is almost definitely going to go Democratic; the base is very energized to get out and vote due to Scott Walker. Governor scott in Florida hasnt been as controversial but Florida is leaning Obama as well.
If those two states are off the map, that puts Obama at 235 votes; needing only thirty five more. Twenty of the 35 may come from Pennsylvania which usually goes democrat and Obama won by 11 points in 2008. So that puts it at fifteen. Of the 15, either of the 3 NC, OH, or MI will put him over the top. MI will almost certainly go for Obama due to the bailouts that appeared to have worked.
If I were the republicons I would not have a single day to where either Romney or his VP isnt in Florida. In a very real way, Florida will determine who wins.
Look at it like this; if the Republicans dont win Florida, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Obama won all three in 08, of the list above, the Repubs have to carry nearly every one of the other states including Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia and Nevada. Its as much of a tightrope walk as you can formulate.
Obama has a much easier path to the nomination than does the GOP
Of the states that are listed as being toss ups--they are listed below, Obama basically needs to win five of the states listed below in blue; almost any combination assures him 270.
Nevada
Colorado
New Mexico
Missouri
Wisconsin
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Ohio
New Hampshire
Virginia
North Carolina
Florida
Of the states listed in blue, Wisconsin is almost definitely going to go Democratic; the base is very energized to get out and vote due to Scott Walker. Governor scott in Florida hasnt been as controversial but Florida is leaning Obama as well.
If those two states are off the map, that puts Obama at 235 votes; needing only thirty five more. Twenty of the 35 may come from Pennsylvania which usually goes democrat and Obama won by 11 points in 2008. So that puts it at fifteen. Of the 15, either of the 3 NC, OH, or MI will put him over the top. MI will almost certainly go for Obama due to the bailouts that appeared to have worked.
If I were the republicons I would not have a single day to where either Romney or his VP isnt in Florida. In a very real way, Florida will determine who wins.
Look at it like this; if the Republicans dont win Florida, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Obama won all three in 08, of the list above, the Repubs have to carry nearly every one of the other states including Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia and Nevada. Its as much of a tightrope walk as you can formulate.
Obama has a much easier path to the nomination than does the GOP