Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul 6%!

Popular, young and strong on Values, dynamic Senator Richard Santorum won an unexpectedly large, much Bigger than throught Win over unpopular, flip-flop, old Millionaire Willard "Mitt" Romney, with almost 50% against 26%, Romney struggling not to fall even lower than 25%, which would mean that he wouldn't take not even 1 among the 46 Delegates at stake....

But the greatest Surprise was Newt Gingrich's "melting" down, nearly to ...15% only, (while, on the contrary, previously he had been credited with more than 20%, initially even 30%)... It seems that recent Poll's findings that "the big difference ... is that Conservative Voters appear to be abandoning Gingrich for Santorum now" (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_LA_323.pdf ), while also more than +61% of his initial Voters are Ready to Switch towards Santorum (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Magellan_LA_0320B.pdf) are confirmed and even Larger than expected, as a kind of Popular "Sanction" for his stuborness to divide real Conservatives, (which, taken all together, have a NATIONWIDE, crystal clear Majority against Romney)..

Also, Santorum almost DOUBLED his Winning Margin at the last minute : While Polls expected him to win over Romney with a margin of some 10% or 13%, finally, he succeeded to win up to + 24 % More Votes , reaching 50% to 26%, respectively !

In fact, Millionaire Romney ... DISAPPEARED throughout all Lousiana State's Map, remaining visible only inside Orleans, and lost in almost every Category of the Population, (even among the Elders, his main refuge elsewhere), with the only Exception of those who are earning .. more than 200.000 $ per year...



Even more Worrying for him : An absolute Majority of more than 54% among Romney's current Voters declared that they would be "Satisfied with Santorum if he won the GOP's Nomination" later-on, i.e. ready to switch from Romney towards Santorum, who is recently Winning a Series of Victories since "Super Tuesday". ( http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/03/strong-conservatives-turn-out-in-louisiana/ ).

Just by himself, Santorum succeded to attract more Votes than .. all his competitors added together : More than 91.000 Votes, compared to 26.000 for Romney, 15.000 for Gingrich and 11.000 for Paul, (i.e. about 50% compared to 26% for Romney, 15% for Gingrich and 6% for Paul)...

An interesting point is that many among his Voters were not Evangelicals or other fundamental Christians, but rather also a large portion of "Fiscal Conservatives", even if Santorum lagely confiirmed and even reinforced his well known predominance among People who give a priority on "Conservative Values", (such as Family, Children, Life, protection of Human Embryo from Genetic Manipulations Dangerous for Humankind, America's History, Culture and Identity, etc).



+ Louisiana's even more brillant than expected Victory of Santorum, confirms and strengthens further the TREND, Since "Super Tuesday" (March 6), for him to mark clear Wins in almost Every Big State in Mainland America, (with the only Exception of Illinois, where an abnormaly "Lower Turnout than in 70 Years" : only ..15%, certainly wouldn't happen again when it will come to face Obama, as mainstream Media critically observed), while, on the contrary, Romney only gets a few "Exotic" areas, in Remote Regions of the World, such as ... Guam, Samoa or Marianas Islands, etc.... (See our special thread, full of Facts on this astonishing U-turn).

- Moreover, Until today, Romney has completely LOST, at more than SIX (6) big mainland States, where he Fell Down LAST (Lower than Gingrich or even Paul !) : Minnesota, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Alabama, Mississipi.
On the contrary, Santorum NEVER fell so low, (with the only Controversial "Exception" of Virginia, just because Bureaucracy Hindered him even to participate there, as well as Gingrich !)...

- In fact, ROMNEY IS A MINORITY, since he's got - 1 Million Votes LESS than the Conservatives, led by Santorum and including Gingrich, who got together much more than 5 Millions of Votes, (to which might e added also Paul's more than + 1 Million votes, making the total 6 Miliions), against only 4 Millions for Romney...

He is as small as a Minority of only 39% of GOP's Votes, with 61% opposed to him ! The Strongest Group of all being that of Real Conservatives with 49%, led by Santorum (more than 27 % and growing fast !), including Gingrich's voters (21 %), and followed by Paul's (10%), with some 2% being dispersed to various others (as Huntsman, Perry, Bachman, etc., i.e. notoriously close to Santorum).

Last but not least, recently, Santorum's campaign's staff started to Strongly Contest the precise Number of Delegates' allocation, as reported by various mainstream Media, claiming that the Real Proportion would be something around 300 to 400 for Romney, etc., ( Faulty math? Rick Santorum ), while Polls give Santorum a clear Win also on Texas, which has 155 Delegates.

- Santorum has thus Won the 1st place in more than 11 States, and the Second place in 15 States, while Gingrich has only won in 2 States and came Second in 3 States. Thus, Santorum has already got more than the DOUBLE of Gingrich's Delegates : More than 273 compared to only 135.

=> If "Newt" persists to Divide the Conservatives for too long, then he will obviously become a ..."Nuisance", and will bear alone all heavy Responsibilities for the consequences.

But he could logically team with Santorum, (f.ex. as future Vice-President or State Secretary, etc) so that, all together, they rapidly transform their Voters' Majority inside GOP, also in a Majority in Delegates.

Unless Gingrich, in fact, wants just to keep the Minority of 20% among his Voters who would otherwise go to Romney, while, in fact, leaving the Majority of more than 61% of his Voters who are ready to go towards Santorum, to do so : I.e., by a "coincidence", ... precisely what has already happened, just today in Louisiana (See above) !..

At any case, one thing is certain : Nobody could go against the American People's Will by imposing them an unpopular, Minority candidate, as Romney, contrary to the democratically expressed will of the Majority of Voters, who are obviously in favor of the Conservative wing, led by Santorum and including Gingrich, etc. (See Facts cited above).

Because, in that case, GOP would simply loose, as also it did back on 2008, when its establishment (Romney included) undermined the charismatic Governor Mike Huckabee, in order to impose the so-called "moderate" McCain, who totaly Failed in front of Obama...

It's only on 2004 US Presidential Elections that the Popular "Values" Movement, able to revive an "American Dream" nowadays, emerged suddenly, free and strong, helping succesfully GWBush to mark, at the last minute, an unexpected, crystal-clear Win with + 3 Millions of Votes more. But, some establishment lobbies slyly "killed" that growing Popular Wave, during the Primaries, back on 2008, and all GOP paid a heavy price for that Blunder.

On the contrary, popular, young and strong on Values, dynamic Senator Rick Santorum, the only real Revelation of 2012 GOP Primaries for the US Presidential Election, has already proved that he knows how to Win even without the Tens of Millions $ spend by his adversaries, (and mainly the disgraceful Waste of Money by the unpopular, flip-flop, old Millionaire Romney : a Shame during these times of Global Crisis !), by running, on the contary, just with super-Motivated People's Energy !

Only such an energetic Personality, based on Solid Principles and Popular Values, could really speak to average, simple Working American People, awaken and attract a large Number among the 50% of Abstentionists in recent US Elections, shaping a Strongly Motivated and Enthousiastic Majority able both to win against Obama, and to "Restore Faith in the American Dream", as Santorum's Noble ambition is .-
------------------------



Rick Santorum, A Message - YouTube

"I hope that you see me not only the Best Candidate to defeat Barack Obama, but also for restoring Faith in the American Dream"
---------------------------------------------------------


Game On - Song for Rick Santorum - Super Tuesday Surprise Original By First Love (Band) - YouTube

"There is Hope for our Nation again ! "

Re: Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul

My dad always said there's something wrong with Louisianites.

Re: Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul

tessaesque said:

My dad always said there's something wrong with Louisianites.

Click to expand...

---

In your Texas too, dear tessaesque, the latest Polls give Santorum a crystal-clear lead,
(with more than + 8 % in front of Romney, who falls down to second, near Gingrich, third) !

WPA Releases GOP Presidential Numbers in Texas | Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

Re: Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul

Galaxy said:

Popular, young and strong on Values, dynamic Senator Richard Santorum won an unexpectedly large, much Bigger than throught Win over unpopular, flip-flop, old Millionaire Willard "Mitt" Romney, with almost 50% against 26%, Romney struggling not to fall even lower than 25%, which would mean that he wouldn't take not even 1 among the 46 Delegates at stake....

But the greatest Surprise was Newt Gingrich's "melting" down, nearly to ...15% only, (while, on the contrary, previously he had been credited with more than 20%, initially even 30%)... It seems that recent Poll's findings that "the big difference ... is that Conservative Voters appear to be abandoning Gingrich for Santorum now" (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_LA_323.pdf ), while also more than +61% of his initial Voters are Ready to Switch towards Santorum (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Magellan_LA_0320B.pdf) are confirmed and even Larger than expected, as a kind of Popular "Sanction" for his stuborness to divide real Conservatives, (which, taken all together, have a NATIONWIDE, crystal clear Majority against Romney)..

Also, Santorum almost DOUBLED his Winning Margin at the last minute : While Polls expected him to win over Romney with a margin of some 10% or 13%, finally, he succeeded to win up to + 24 % More Votes , reaching 50% to 26%, respectively !

In fact, Millionaire Romney ... DISAPPEARED throughout all Lousiana State's Map, remaining visible only inside Orleans, and lost in almost every Category of the Population, (even among the Elders, his main refuge elsewhere), with the only Exception of those who are earning .. more than 200.000 $ per year...

Even more Worrying for him : An absolute Majority of more than 54% among Romney's current Voters declared that they would be "Satisfied with Santorum if he won the GOP's Nomination" later-on, i.e. ready to switch from Romney towards Santorum, who is recently Winning a Series of Victories since "Super Tuesday". ( http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/03/strong-conservatives-turn-out-in-louisiana/ ).

Just by himself, Santorum succeded to attract more Votes than .. all his competitors added together : More than 91.000 Votes, compared to 26.000 for Romney, 15.000 for Gingrich and 11.000 for Paul, (i.e. about 50% compared to 26% for Romney, 15% for Gingrich and 6% for Paul)...

An interesting point is that many among his Voters were not Evangelicals or other fundamental Christians, but rather also a large portion of "Fiscal Conservatives", even if Santorum lagely confiirmed and even reinforced his well known predominance among People who give a priority on "Conservative Values", (such as Family, Children, Life, protection of Human Embryo from Genetic Manipulations Dangerous for Humankind, America's History, Culture and Identity, etc).

+ Louisiana's even more brillant than expected Victory of Santorum, confirms and strengthens further the TREND, Since "Super Tuesday" (March 6), for him to mark clear Wins in almost Every Big State in Mainland America, (with the only Exception of Illinois, where an abnormaly "Lower Turnout than in 70 Years" : only ..15%, certainly wouldn't happen again when it will come to face Obama, as mainstream Media critically observed), while, on the contrary, Romney only gets a few "Exotic" areas, in Remote Regions of the World, such as ... Guam, Samoa or Marianas Islands, etc.... (See our special thread, full of Facts on this astonishing U-turn).

- Moreover, Until today, Romney has completely LOST, at more than SIX (6) big mainland States, where he Fell Down LAST (Lower than Gingrich or even Paul !) : Minnesota, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Alabama, Mississipi.
On the contrary, Santorum NEVER fell so low, (with the only Controversial "Exception" of Virginia, just because Bureaucracy Hindered him even to participate there, as well as Gingrich !)...

- In fact, ROMNEY IS A MINORITY, since he's got - 1 Million Votes LESS than the Conservatives, led by Santorum and including Gingrich, who got together much more than 5 Millions of Votes, (to which might e added also Paul's more than + 1 Million votes, making the total 6 Miliions), against only 4 Millions for Romney...

He is as small as a Minority of only 39% of GOP's Votes, with 61% opposed to him ! The Strongest Group of all being that of Real Conservatives with 49%, led by Santorum (more than 27 % and growing fast !), including Gingrich's voters (21 %), and followed by Paul's (10%), with some 2% being dispersed to various others (as Huntsman, Perry, Bachman, etc., i.e. notoriously close to Santorum).

Last but not least, recently, Santorum's campaign's staff started to Strongly Contest the precise Number of Delegates' allocation, as reported by various mainstream Media, claiming that the Real Proportion would be something around 300 to 400 for Romney, etc., ( Faulty math? Rick Santorum ), while Polls give Santorum a clear Win also on Texas, which has 155 Delegates.

- Santorum has thus Won the 1st place in more than 11 States, and the Second place in 15 States, while Gingrich has only won in 2 States and came Second in 3 States. Thus, Santorum has already got more than the DOUBLE of Gingrich's Delegates : More than 273 compared to only 135.

=> If "Newt" persists to Divide the Conservatives for too long, then he will obviously become a ..."Nuisance", and will bear alone all heavy Responsibilities for the consequences.

But he could logically team with Santorum, (f.ex. as future Vice-President or State Secretary, etc) so that, all together, they rapidly transform their Voters' Majority inside GOP, also in a Majority in Delegates.

Unless Gingrich, in fact, wants just to keep the Minority of 20% among his Voters who would otherwise go to Romney, while, in fact, leaving the Majority of more than 61% of his Voters who are ready to go towards Santorum, to do so : I.e., by a "coincidence", ... precisely what has already happened, just today in Louisiana (See above) !..

At any case, one thing is certain : Nobody could go against the American People's Will by imposing them an unpopular, Minority candidate, as Romney, contrary to the democratically expressed will of the Majority of Voters, who are obviously in favor of the Conservative wing, led by Santorum and including Gingrich, etc. (See Facts cited above).

Because, in that case, GOP would simply loose, as also it did back on 2008, when its establishment (Romney included) undermined the charismatic Governor Mike Huckabee, in order to impose the so-called "moderate" McCain, who totaly Failed in front of Obama...

It's only on 2004 US Presidential Elections that the Popular "Values" Movement, able to revive an "American Dream" nowadays, emerged suddenly, free and strong, helping succesfully GWBush to mark, at the last minute, an unexpected, crystal-clear Win with + 3 Millions of Votes more. But, some establishment lobbies slyly "killed" that growing Popular Wave, during the Primaries, back on 2008, and all GOP paid a heavy price for that Blunder.

On the contrary, popular, young and strong on Values, dynamic Senator Rick Santorum, the only real Revelation of 2012 GOP Primaries for the US Presidential Election, has already proved that he knows how to Win even without the Tens of Millions $ spend by his adversaries, (and mainly the disgraceful Waste of Money by the unpopular, flip-flop, old Millionaire Romney : a Shame during these times of Global Crisis !), by running, on the contary, just with super-Motivated People's Energy !

Only such an energetic Personality, based on Solid Principles and Popular Values, could really speak to average, simple Working American People, awaken and attract a large Number among the 50% of Abstentionists in recent US Elections, shaping a Strongly Motivated and Enthousiastic Majority able both to win against Obama, and to "Restore Faith in the American Dream", as Santorum's Noble ambition is .-
------------------------

Rick Santorum, A Message - YouTube

"I hope that you see me not only the Best Candidate to defeat Barack Obama, but also for restoring Faith in the American Dream"
---------------------------------------------------------

Game On - Song for Rick Santorum - Super Tuesday Surprise Original By First Love (Band) - YouTube

"There is Hope for our Nation again ! "

Click to expand...

This just gets better and better. Go Rick!

Re: Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul

Wiggen said:

This just gets better and better. Go Rick!

Click to expand...

He will certainly do that, since American People proved that they want it !

Thanks dear Wiggen.

Re: Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul

I feel sorry for propagandists, especially if they are true believers. God I couldn't imagine actually writing this kind of empty rhetoric, knowingly trying to sway your readers with bias information or selective reporting.

Re: Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul

Galaxy said:

---

In your Texas too, dear tessaesque, the latest Polls give Santorum a crystal-clear lead,
(with more than + 8 % in front of Romney, who falls down to second, near Gingrich, third) !

WPA Releases GOP Presidential Numbers in Texas | Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

Click to expand...

dont mess with texas!!!!!!! btw we are the ron paul state so we arent a bunch of partisan hacks.

also some parts of texas politicians wont touch because they would be hanged,yes texas is that fanatical about politics,and likes to hold politicians responsible if they were given the chance.

Re: Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul

Galaxy said:

---

In your Texas too, dear tessaesque, the latest Polls give Santorum a crystal-clear lead,
(with more than + 8 % in front of Romney, who falls down to second, near Gingrich, third) !

WPA Releases GOP Presidential Numbers in Texas | Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

Click to expand...

You forgot the poll that puts him behind Romney by two. And there have only been two polls recently. I'd hardly call that definitive. AND...our primary isn't until the end of May.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Texas Republican Presidential Primary

Re: Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul

The OP was INSPIRED propaganda!

When it got to the part about a sold out Huckabee I had visions of 'Red Dawn' with a bloodied Huck yelling to a young and strong Santorum .... "AVENGE ME!!!!" :roll:

I don't agree with Newt's face fall being a surprise, not at all. Nor do I believe all the votes for not Romney would have gone to ANY not Romney so counting all the not Romney votes as a group is flawed.

The map is interesting as well, Santorum is winning many 'empty' states and losing the heavily populated ones. Winning the social conservative midwest and south isn't going to play big in the electoral college. Texas and California are now must wins for Santorum, he has to show he can win outside the Bible Belt.

Interesting the propaganda piece writes off the Illinois loss due to low turnout, I seem to recall most the turnouts as lower than average.

Personally I see Santorum winning the nomination as the best news Obama can get. He will energize his base like the failed Democrats of the 60's and 70's managed. What wasn't done was win the moderates and centralists. Mondale, Humphrey, Dukakis- all men of principle to their base.

All lost their elections in landslides.

Course Mitt must be shi**in kittens right about now. Why can't a rich white dude buy a GOP nomination? I mean it is his turn for the run, why can't the muddled masses just sit back and let the former vultur....ahh venture capitalist do his take over, loot the pension system, cut costs and sell off parts of the USofA to other venturistas like in the good ol' Bain days.

Nothing is more sacred in a capitalistic society than profit.

Re: Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul

tessaesque said:

You forgot the poll that puts him behind Romney by two.....

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Texas Republican Presidential Primary

Click to expand...

1) Your "Romney" Poll is OLDER than our "Santorum-winner" Poll, which is the youngest...

2) The Winning Margins are very Differend : Romney gets only + 2%, while Santorum gets + 8 %, i.e. X 400 % more !!!...

3) => RCP's conclusion (taking all ii account) is that, today, Santorum leads in Texas !

tessaesque said:

.... I'd hardly call that definitive. AND...our primary isn't until the end of May.

Click to expand...

Yeah, by wasting Millions of bucks notoriously spent by the unpopular, flip-flop, old Millionaire Willard "Mitt" Romney, perhaps he might mislead some Sheeps and/or usurpate the Vote by cheating, as back in Ohio and Illinois, that's what you "hope" ?

=> On the contrary, People who strongly support Santorum's Popular "Values" Movement want anOTHER America, and, as he rightfully said recently, to "Restore Faith to the American Dream" !

No to destroy it for ever...


+ By the way : (As many have already observed before), Initially, Texas' vote wasn't scheduled for April, before being, curiously, postponed by some old Establishment's Bureaucrats towards the End of May ???.... :doh:doh:doh:doh:doh

Re: Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul

OMG... WHAT A SURPRISE (THAT EVERYONE PREDICTED AND HARDLY ANYONE FOLLOWED...)?!?!?!?

1st off... BFD? Santorum won a state with a high amount of uneducated Evangelicals... That he was predicted to win... Woo Hoo!!! Go Rick...

2ndly, while you say Romney isn't eligible for a single delegate... Both CNN and the Green Papers have it broken down as Santorum 10 Romney 5... so he gained 5 delegates on Romney, while only winning 66% of the delegates, when he needs to win on a pace of over 70% of the remaining delegates... Thus, extending Romney's advantage...

Delegate Math

Need to Nominate 1,144
(available) 1,218
W Romney 563
R Santorum 262
N Gingrich 155
R Paul 78
Uncommitted 10
Total 2,286

Election 2012 - Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions

Santorum has 262 delegates. He needs 882 delegates more to reach the 1144 needed to win the nomination. Therefore, he would have to win 72.4% of the 1218 delegates remaining. He is currently winning 24.7% of the delegates (1058 delegates awarded so far, 262 won). Even in this LA contest, which he won about half of the vote, and won by about 25 pts, he still only won 66% of the delegates. It's just not gonna happen.

Romney has 563 delegates. He needs 581 delegates more to reach the 1144 needed to win the nomination. Therefore he would have to win 47.7% of the delegates remaining. He is currently winning 53.2% (1058 delegates awarded so far, 563 won). Even in this LA contest, he won 33% of the delegates. A win in the winner-take-all contest in WI puts it that much further out of reach.

Upcoming Races

Yes... don't mess with Texas... only, this will be over long before Texas... that is held at the end of May.

April

In the next coming contest, held in Wisconsin, Romney has a double digit lead in the polls. Wisconsin is also a 40 delegate winner-take-all contest, so expect the full Romney in this one, not the I don't expect to win, so I only spent one day in the state Romney. We have seen, when Romney puts his full attention and full organization into a primary, he tends to win it.

Furthermore April is filled with contests in WI, MD, DC, NY, PA, CT, RI. The ones in bold are the ones where Romney is favored by double digits in the polls. There are no existing polls in MD or DC, but its expected Romney will do well in them, too (Santorum isn't even on the ballot in DC, which is a 16 delegate winner-take-all... basically trippling the Santorum Louisiana win basically unoposed). The only state where Santorum is favored in April is in his home state of PA, where polls had him with over 60% of the vote 1 month ago, but now have him with low to mid 40s. He still will likely win the state, but expect when that state comes up, that it will get a lot more competitive. So when Mitt wins most of the contests in April, and gets most of the delegates in April, by a wide margin, and extends his already nearly insurmountable lead, then it's pretty much going to be considered over in everyone's minds.

May

Just by chance, if Mitt doesn't own April solidly, then Santorum could pick up some momentum to make this a tighter race. In May there are a lot of delegates up for stake, and a lot of them lean towards Santorum's demographic. However, MOST of those delegates are awarded proportionately. So eventhough Santorum could regain momentum, and earn a lot of delegates... However, so will Romney.

As Romney wins those delegates, he will be nearing on the 1144, and the pressure will mount for Santorum to pull out, or for unity in the party, behind Romney. Picture 2 months from now, as Romney is likely up between 800-900 delegates, and Santorum may be 300-400 delegates and winning states, but seemingly just getting in the way of Romney being the nominee... You'll also have clear writing on the wall, when at that point, Santorum will likely be mathmatically unable to reach 1144...

Even if it does go to TX, there are 152 delegates at stake then. Romney holds a 301 delegate lead, currently. It's a proportionate primary, but, even if Santorum won all 152 that would only cut the lead in half.

In the meantime, where are these other delegates going to come from?

April 3 - 95
WI = 42 winner-take-all (but Romney is favored),
MD = 37 winner-take-all at the congressional level
DC = 16 winner-take-all (but Santorum isn't on the ballot)

Should be a 70-80 delegate win for Romney that night... with Santorum lucky to get 10-20 Taking it to 633-643 to 272-282

April 21 - 52
MO = 52, and he won the non-binding primary, but he's currently losing delegates in the trenches

a divided delegate allocation could be fairly close 15-25 to Santorum, 15-20 to Romney 10-15 to Ron Paul. Best case for Santorum 25 to 15, making it 648-658 to 297-307

April 24 - 228
CT = 28 proportionate (Romney favored)
DE = 19 winner-take-all at congressional level
NY = 92 proportionate (Romney favored)
PA = 72 direct election, where he could possibly win all the delegates (though not likely this year, with as tight a race as it is)
RI = 17 proportionate (Romney favored)

The trouble with Santorum is, NY, CT, RI all would help Romney pad the lead. NY has Romney up by double digits right now, with 92 delegates split proportionately, Romney is likely to extend his lead by 15-20 more delegates that night, and by 5-10 in CT, and another handful in RI. Even with a win in PA, it's more than likely he loses a lot of delegates that night, and barely squeaks by in his home state, which could kill his campaign. Romney is likely to get 100-115-100 delegates that night with Santorum pulling about 75-100. That could bring it to 748-773 to 372-407


May 8 - 129
NC = 57 proportionate primary
WV = 31 direct election
IN = 41 Hybrid Primary/Caucus

Should be Santorum's night. Although, a proportionate divide, will make it tough to truly close the gap. This might also be the night it becomes mathmatically impossible for Santorum to get to 1144... with 500+ of the 1200+ delegates remaining awarded, he could still be under 700 delegates needed to make 1144. Say he gets 50-75 delegates that night to Romney's 25-50, that'd bring it to 773-823 to 422-482...

May 15 - 63
NE = 35 non-binding primary
OR = 28 proportionate primary

Again, Romney's night, and with the non-binding aspect in NE, it doesn't allow Santorum to count his delegates in that state necessarily at the time... say they each get 25-30... it could be... 798-853 to 447-512 (Given the low end estimate for Romney and the high estimate for Santorum, that's still a 286 delegate lead for Romney)

May 22 - 81
AR = 36 proportionate primary
KY = 45 proportionate primary

Santorum's night... but divided vote, and, you have to wonder how many stay on board the bandwagon, when he's mathmatically not able to reach 1144, but Romney is pretty close to doing so... Just to be kind to Santorum say he wins 60 delegates and Romney only takes 20... 818-873 to 507-572...

So after a fairly favorable estimate for Santorum going into the Texas primary, he would be down to Romney by about 250...

Then, Texas is a proportional primary... its 152... say Santorum gets 66.6% of the vote to Romney's 33.3% of the vote... and Santorum wins 100 delegates to Romney's 50... that 250 delegate lead only goes down to 200... 863-923 to 607-672

June

Lastly, even if it does go to June, Romney has UT, NJ and CA in his favor. UT is a 40 delegate winner-take-all, NJ is a 50 delegate winner-take-all, and CA has 169 of delegates at stake, winner-take-all at the congressional level. That's a big safety net to have for Romney, expecting to get 90 delegates from UT and NJ, and with a 5% win in CA that could produce a 50 delegate advantage...

If you're Santorum, you'd expect that since CA NJ and UT are the last contests, getting Texas would have to put you ahead by a significant amount of delegates, or Romney will just surpass him again. That's not likely to happen, as even in a best case scenario, most of the states between now and Texas divide their delegates proportionally, to the point that, theres little to be gained. He can't close the gap, as this "50"%, Louisiana, which is actually 49% win, gains him only 5 delegates.

June 5 - 296
CA - 169
MT - 26
NJ - 50
NM - 23
SD - 28

Should be a HUGE night for Romney, where he all but wraps up the nomination (if he hasn't already when not giving a beneficial estimate for Santorum)... Romney likely takes home 75-100 from CA, 50 from NJ, and another 20-40 from the three other contests... with santorum getting 50-75 from CA, and 20-40 from the other three... thats 145-190... 70-115... which would make it 1008-1113 to 677-787

June 26 - 40
UT - 40

With the last remaining contest, being the state that Gov. Romney's alma mater BYU is at, that is heavily populated by Mormons, and that he saved the Salt Lake City Olympics in... it'd be a fitting place for him to cross the 1144 at... With this estimate of delegate breakdown, giving a heavy bias in favor of Santorum... the 40 delegates Romney picks up takes him to 1048-1153 to 677-787, in which he could be over 1144...

However, if he isn't, he would still go to the convention up by 1048-1153 to 677-787... Now, please tell me how you think it's more likely that Santorum, at the convention is going to muster up 400-500 delegates, easier than it will take Romney to find under 100?!? Because he is a true conservative? :roll: Guess where he could easily find those delegates? Ron Paul... who currently has 78 of them.... nevermind how many delegates he picks up in the 3 months of delegate heavy primaries between now and then... Do you for 1 second believe that Ron Paul wouldn't give as many of them as it took to Romney to make sure Santorum didn't win?

Convention Strategy

His best case scenario is that he wins the overwhelming majority of the remaining contests, can prevent Romney from getting the 1,144 delegates needed, and convince everyone not to chose Romney because he is a weak front-runner... How's that gonna work? Even if Romney is a weak front-runner... he's still the front-runner... and a front-runner ahead of Santorum... So what's Santorum's argument... Don't pick the weak front-runner, pick the guy who is way behind him? Yeah, that makes sense...

Most of the head-to-head polls show Romney fairing better against Obama than Santorum (or any other opponent). Romney also is tied, or leads in some of the polls taken recently, including having a 2pt advantage in the most recent poll, done by Rasmussen. Why would the people at the convention say, no, don't pick the guy who everyone voted for, and who everyone believes stands the best chance to beat Obama, go for the Religious whack-job, who has excited the extreme wing of the party, that's going to vote for us anyway, and keeps saying stupid things which alienate independent voters... ?

Besides, he keeps attacking Romney as the establishment candidate. Newt does, too. How is that going to help them in a convention... when the convention is where THE ESTABLISHMENT SELECTS A CANDIDATE?!?!?!?!?!? The establishment is clearly behind Romney. He has a FAR greater number of unpledged delegates who have endorsed him, and he has FAR greater endorsements from high profile Republican leaders. Those are the people who would influence that convention, and rightfully so, they all want Romney, because they want to win in November.

The other thing Santorum has against him in a convention is Ron Paul. Ron Paul hates Santorum. Ron Paul has delegates he can pledge. Ron Paul has also the ground game to work a convention, and is already using it to his advantage to steal delegates from him in Missouri. Expect if it comes down to it, on the floor, Ron Paul's people would be working against a Santorum ploy, then support Romney if it looked like that's what he'd need.

It's just not gonna happen. All Santorum is doing now is hurting the GOPs chances in the general election, and Obama is loving every minute of it. Instead of uniting behind a candidate and attacking Obama on all fronts, Santorum is attacking the leading and likely candidate, and saying things which alienate potential voters in the general election, which will be attribute to how "Republicans feel". Right now, every vote for Santorum is a vote for Obama.

Re: Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul

Man you guys seriously need a uniform election law and system...

Re: Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul

tessaesque said:

My dad always said there's something wrong with Louisianites.

Click to expand...

Your father specifically picked out that state? Really?

Re: Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul

PeteEU said:

Man you guys seriously need a uniform election law and system...

Click to expand...

Yes, one that elects liberals 100% of the time, of course. :roll:

Re: Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul

American said:

Yes, one that elects liberals 100% of the time, of course. :roll:

Click to expand...

No, the system is broken.
1. The nominations are rigged towards Romney. Take a look at which states are proportional and which are winner take all. There is a trend here, states in New England, northern USA, and California are winner take all. While the rest are proportional. The reason is probably due to the party officials in the state favouring Romney, and then voting for a proportional system if they are worried their state will vote for someone else.
2. There has been election fraud, and it is documented in Maine. Still, nothing is happening.
3. In the US as whole, every state is winner take all. That prevents third parties from having any power. That may not be needed earlier, but young voters are getting less interested in politics, because they think both parties are corrupt. Also, it damages Republicans the most as there is no common ground.

Edit: How can I forget.
4. Money has too much influence in politics. Corporations or unions should not have the possibility to buy politicians or buy votes. So there needs to be a campaign finance reform. Occupy Wall Street could have got a lot more popularity if they talked less about the 1% and corporate personhood (which they probably doesn't even understand what means), and talked more about campaign finance reform.

Re: Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul

notquiteright said:

......Personally I see Santorum winning the nomination as the best news Obama can get. .....

Click to expand...

... if he secretly desires long Holidays in Retirement for Old chaps at Hawai !.......

Re: Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul

This may be similar to a new generation taking over the Democratic nomination in 2008, with Obama replacing the Old Guard of Hillary Clinton and her supporters. Another similarity is that the Old Guards could be blamed for losing the White House in both cases. It's not about race or versions of the same basic ideology; it's about age. All the older generations today deserve their dismissal, but I fear that the younger generations are even worse.

Re: Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul

notquiteright said:

The OP was INSPIRED propaganda!

When it got to the part about ....Huckabee I had visions of 'Red Dawn' with a bloodied Huck yelling to a young and strong Santorum .... "AVENGE ME!!!!" :roll: .....

Click to expand...

Really ?

Touching....



Red Dawn-"United We Stand" - YouTube

--------------------------------------

..... Course Mitt must be shi**in kittens right about now. Why can't a rich white dude buy a GOP nomination? I mean it is his turn for the run, why can't the muddled masses just sit back and let the former vultur....ahh venture capitalist do his take over, loot the pension system, cut costs and sell off parts of the USofA to other venturistas like in the good ol' Bain days.......

Click to expand...

Conscious, simple and honest, hard working American People, will NEVER ..."sit back and let".., (as you said)..

=> On the contrary, already, More than 5 Millions of simple, honest American People : the Conservatives' MAJORITY in GOP's 2012 Primaries, led by Santorum, have outnumbered, with + 1 Million more Votes, the MINORITY leader Romney, who (despite a lot of Money spent and wasted) got only some 4 Millions votes, (i.e. - 1 Million LESS) !..

Re: Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul

Camlon said:

No, the system is broken.
1. The nominations are rigged towards Romney. Take a look at which states are proportional and which are winner take all. There is a trend here, states in New England, northern USA, and California are winner take all. While the rest are proportional. The reason is probably due to the party officials in the state favouring Romney, and then voting for a proportional system if they are worried their state will vote for someone else.
2. There has been election fraud, and it is documented in Maine. Still, nothing is happening.
3. In the US as whole, every state is winner take all. That prevents third parties from having any power. That may not be needed earlier, but young voters are getting less interested in politics, because they think both parties are corrupt. Also, it damages Republicans the most as there is no common ground.

Edit: How can I forget.
4. Money has too much influence in politics. Corporations or unions should not have the possibility to buy politicians or buy votes. So there needs to be a campaign finance reform. Occupy Wall Street could have got a lot more popularity if they talked less about the 1% and corporate personhood (which they probably doesn't even understand what means), and talked more about campaign finance reform.

Click to expand...

The mantras of losers...

"The election was rigged!" "The media is bias!" "The voters are being tricked!"

and the USA will sink into the abiss of hell if their candidate doesn't win.

Re: Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul

Santorum would need another dozen Louisiana's before his delegate count could match Romney - he's rapidly running out of states where he's competitive!

Re: Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul

jgarden47 said:

Santorum would need another dozen Louisiana's before his delegate count could match Romney - he's rapidly running out of states where he's competitive!

Click to expand...

Oh yeah? Well Santorum would say "that's bulls..t!" Literally that's what he'd say.

That's what all Godly evangelicals say when things aren't going their way. LOL

Re: Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul

So far, DC and Maryland for Romney pretty much obliterated the value of Santorum's LA win.

Re: Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul

joko104 said:

The mantras of losers...

"The election was rigged!" "The media is bias!" "The voters are being tricked!"

and the USA will sink into the abiss of hell if their candidate doesn't win.

Click to expand...

I don't support Ron Paul, but there was clear election fraud in Maine.

I don't support Santorum either. God no! I rather pick Romney, even though I despise him. But take a look at what states are winner take all. There is a clear Romney bias. I know most of the GOP establishment wanted Romney from day 1, so why wouldn't they make Romney states winner take all?

And some of these issues are not related to any of the candidates. I think most people would agree that money has too much influence on politics. Ideas should influence politics, not money. And no one has won the general election yet. I am just stating that people need more choices. For many people it's like choosing between a giant douche and a turd sandwich. Many young people feel voting is meaningless.

My reform to get a better variety would be
1. For Presidental elections, nebraska shows the way.
2. Make at least the house proportional. So if a party gets 20% of the votes, then it will also get 20% of the representatives. Hence, it is not self destructive to vote for third parties. Since there will be more variety between house and senate, then fillibuster can be removed.

we need zyphlin in this thread. people are challenging his dominance on the length of posts.

Sent from my YP-G1 using Tapatalk. My YP-G1 is a very nice device that hardly ever explodes or shoots jets of burning acid at my face. Samsung has done a good job in that respect in building it. However one has to consider hamsters in regard to android as cyborg hamsters are very cool. Imagine how fast an Android hamster could run in their exercise wheel for example.

Re: Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul

The more Santorum wins, the better the odds are of Obama winning another 4 years.