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Romney and the Mormon Factor

Proteus said:
I'd say the least of his problems is worrying about where his next meal is coming from. :)
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Agreed

Proteus said:
His image as a flip-flopper etc. is certainly a problem among many independents (such as myself), but his religion seems to be a real problem with his republican base. Either problem on it's own could very well be enough to sink his chances. Put them together and he's barely more electable than Santorum or Gingrich in the general.
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I am not an evangelical Christian so I can't say for a fact that it isn't his Mormonism that turns them off; are there some who hate because he is Mormon, of course. However I do have family in the south and some of them are evangelical's, my aunt especially. They dislike Romney because they don't view him as a true conservative and think of him as someone who will say whatever he has to win. Now they may truly dislike him because he is Mormon, but I can't enter their minds and see what they really think. I think if Romney wasn't such a flip flopper he would have done a lot better in the South, more so than if he wasn't Mormon. Even if he was a Mainline Protestant he still would have trouble in the South because of his record and his off putting personality.
 
Zyphlin said:
Again, you base this on what? Anecdotal or something concrete?

I've seen two significant polls regarding this issue on a national stage, and from what it seems it's that Democrats, not Repulicans, have a larger issue with voting for a Mormon. Yet the stones are repeatedly cast at the Republican base. Why is that, and based on what fats?
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Democrats do reject Mormon candidates more because of the candidates conservative positions, not so much about the religion specifically. Often when conservative evangelical GOP voters reject Mormon candidates, it is because of the religion, even though they share many if not most conservative views.
 
disneydude said:
If you look at the results....state after state, it is the evangelical vote that is running from Romney, not the conservative vote. The only states that Santorum has won have been those with Huge Evangelical population. It absolutely is the Mormon issue. Evangelicals hate mormons...period. They would vote for any Republican over a mormon.
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Yes but I would put the fact that Santorum gets the Evangelical vote, not because of Romney's Mormonism, but on the fact that Santorum is basically the Evangelical poster boy. Any candidate would struggle to get the Evangelical vote with someone like Santorum who has such strict hardcore Christian values.

disneydude said:
That being said....they hate Obama more, so they will hold their nose and vote for Romney in the general election.
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This we can agree on.
 
Zyphlin said:
Proteus said:
His image as a flip-flopper etc. is certainly a problem among many independents (such as myself), but his religion seems to be a real problem with his republican base. Either problem on it's own could very well be enough to sink his chances. Put them together and he's barely more electable than Santorum or Gingrich in the general.
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Again, you base this on what? Anecdotal or something concrete?

I've seen two significant polls regarding this issue on a national stage, and from what it seems it's that Democrats, not Repulicans, have a larger issue with voting for a Mormon. Yet the stones are repeatedly cast at the Republican base. Why is that, and based on what fats?
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Did you read the link in the OP?

Exit polls indicate that his religion was a material issue for voters who self identify as evangelical (and voted against him).
 
disneydude said:
Sorry....but it widely known the disdain that evangelicals have for Mormons. Most of the anti-Mormon propoganda that is out there is published by evangelical groups. You would have to have lived on the moon to not be aware of the anti-mormon rhetoric that is prevalent in the evangelical community. And the facts are what they are. Santorum has won the states that he has won by garnering large percentages of evangelical voters. He loses in states where there aren't huge evangelical populations. Sorry....that's just the facts.
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I heard on the local news one report of a guy saying he won't vote for Romeny because of his religion. I don't care what Romney's religion is nor do I care what Santorum's religion is, or anybody elses religion. Now if you start making laws based on religion, then you and I are going to have a 'bug tussle' at that point. But I don't want to shock you, but people have the right to vote the way they want to vote, regardless of their religion. I hope you're not advocating a religion check before you can vote, now are you?
 
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partier9 said:
Yes but I would put the fact that Santorum gets the Evangelical vote, not because of Romney's Mormonism, but on the fact that Santorum is basically the Evangelical poster boy.
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Perhaps you didn't know this, but Santorum is actually Catholic.
 
Gimmesometruth said:
Democrats do reject Mormon candidates more because of the candidates conservative positions, not so much about the religion specifically. Often when conservative evangelical GOP voters reject Mormon candidates, it is because of the religion, even though they share many if not most conservative views.
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And you base this off.....? Or is yours your anecdotal opinion as to the reason why the polls show more democrats opposed to voting for a mormon candidate than Republicans, similar to mine? In which case, sure...that's a possability, but I find it to be lacking as I've seen no reason to believe there's some significantly large portio nof the evangelical GOP base that has issues specifically with Mormonism in a candidate that can't be attributed to other factors as well.
 
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Proteus said:
Did you read the link in the OP?

Exit polls indicate that his religion was a material issue for voters who self identify as evangelical (and voted against him).
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Within a Republican primary, agains other republican candidates, which speaks next to nothing with regards to viability and potential harm to him on a national stage against a Democratic candidate. Those can indicate a situation where its an "all things being equal" scenario where something like religion becomes a factor, a scenario that doesn't exist in the case of a Democrat vs Republican national election.
 
Zyphlin said:
Within a Republican primary, agains other republican candidates, which speaks next to nothing with regards to viability and potential harm to him on a national stage against a Democratic candidate. Those can indicate a situation where its an "all things being equal" scenario where something like religion becomes a factor, a scenario that doesn't exist in the case of a Democrat vs Republican national election.
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Which is exactly why I asked in the OP if this would carry over to the general. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. Obviously you don't think it will, but that doesn't mean you're right.
 
Zyphlin said:
And you base this off.....? Or is yours your anecdotal opinion as to the reason why the polls show more democrats opposed to voting for a mormon candidate than Republicans, similar to mine? In which case, sure...that's a possability, but I find it to be lacking as I've seen no reason to believe there's some significantly large portio nof the evangelical GOP base that has issues specifically with Mormonism in a candidate that can't be attributed to other factors as well.
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On the Dem side....from my own experience in talking to fellow D's about Mormon candidates in AZ. As an example, we loved Mo Udall because he wasn't conservative, he was pretty liberal. It is not to say that there are not Dem's who outright reject based on religion, I just believe that the roughly 10% difference in the rejection rate between parties (according to Gallup) comes down to the fact that generally you are going to get Mormons running with conservative ideologies.

On the GOP comments, because of what I read. As pointed out, it is in the OP and many articles have been written about rw/evangelical rejection of Romney.

Edit to add after your edit:

The Gallup poll shows 17% of the GOP will not vote for a Mormon, 26% of Dems won't. It will have some impact in the general election, Romney won't pull that part of the GOP base, he loses 19% of Ind because of his religion, and I don't see that much crossover by Dems, since Obama is pulling @ 88% of the Dem vote.
 
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partier9 said:
Agreed



I am not an evangelical Christian so I can't say for a fact that it isn't his Mormonism that turns them off; are there some who hate because he is Mormon, of course. However I do have family in the south and some of them are evangelical's, my aunt especially. They dislike Romney because they don't view him as a true conservative and think of him as someone who will say whatever he has to win. Now they may truly dislike him because he is Mormon, but I can't enter their minds and see what they really think. I think if Romney wasn't such a flip flopper he would have done a lot better in the South, more so than if he wasn't Mormon. Even if he was a Mainline Protestant he still would have trouble in the South because of his record and his off putting personality.
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Even if Romney were not such a flip-flopper the evangelicals would shun him for his Mormonism. The "he's not conservative" enough is just a way to mask their true motivations. Hell....they would vote for Gingrich over a mormon....what does this tell you?
 
Proteus said:
Which is exactly why I asked in the OP if this would carry over to the general. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. Obviously you don't think it will, but that doesn't mean you're right.
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Oh, I in no means suggest that I'm absolutely correct.

I'm just asking that people who want to claim that it will be a big issue for Republicans in the general to provide backup for why they say that, if they have it, or acknowledge they're just basing it entirely off anecdotal evidence. My view on it may not be right. However, I come at mine at least partially based on national polls. And I come from my argument that the perception isthat is being peddled, primarily by liberals, that its CONSERVATIVES that are the ones that he's hurting most with due to the mormonism is wrong based not on anecdotal evidence but based on actual national polls that showed it hurts more with liberals.

It may hurt him during the national election. However I've seen nothing at all worth while suggesting that will be the case, and the majority of those I've seen arguing such a notion and telling people that "conservatives will have a problem with it" almost to a man have been liberals...the people polls show are the ones who have the biggest issue with the notion of voting for a mormon.
 
Gimmesometruth said:
On the GOP comments, because of what I read. As pointed out, it is in the OP and many articles have been written about rw/evangelical rejection of Romney.
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Not surprisingly, most of these suggestions written about evangelical's are rarely by evangelicals but rather by others...more often then not liberals...TELLING us what evangelicals will due, usually coming from a prejudiced view point based around stereotypes to begin with.
 
disneydude said:
Even if Romney were not such a flip-flopper the evangelicals would shun him for his Mormonism. The "he's not conservative" enough is just a way to mask their true motivations. Hell....they would vote for Gingrich over a mormon....what does this tell you?
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Soothsayer's usually say something like "Beware the Ides of March". You have no data to back up what you've posted, now have you?
 
Gimmesometruth said:
The Gallup poll shows 17% of the GOP will not vote for a Mormon, 26% of Dems won't. It will have some impact in the general election, Romney won't pull that part of the GOP base, he loses 19% of Ind because of his religion, and I don't see that much crossover by Dems, since Obama is pulling @ 88% of the Dem vote.
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Here is the issue. You're assuming that 17% would vote for him if he wasn't a Mormon. Lets say most of that 17% is evangelicals, as so many liberals continue to suggest. If he was Protestant rather than Mormon, are we saying those 17% would suddenly vote for him? Or could it possibly be that his stance on abortion in the past would keep them from supporting him as well, but since the poll didn't ask about that bu tasked about mormonism we're assuming that its just the mormonism that's keeping him away. Or that they wouldn't vote for him because he's a "moderate", but again, the poll didn't control for that. The assumption people are wrongfully making is that somehow that 17% that say they won't vote for a Mormon is 17% that would've voted for him if not for that fact. There's no evidence to that.
 
Zyphlin said:
Oh, I in no means suggest that I'm absolutely correct.

I'm just asking that people who want to claim that it will be a big issue for Republicans in the general to provide backup for why they say that, if they have it, or acknowledge they're just basing it entirely off anecdotal evidence. My view on it may not be right. However, I come at mine at least partially based on national polls. And I come from my argument that the perception isthat is being peddled, primarily by liberals, that its CONSERVATIVES that are the ones that he's hurting most with due to the mormonism is wrong based not on anecdotal evidence but based on actual national polls that showed it hurts more with liberals.

It may hurt him during the national election. However I've seen nothing at all worth while suggesting that will be the case, and the majority of those I've seen arguing such a notion and telling people that "conservatives will have a problem with it" almost to a man have been liberals...the people polls show are the ones who have the biggest issue with the notion of voting for a mormon.
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Just look at the stats.....that should be ample evidence. Romney does well in non-evangelical states. Romney wins handily among non-evangelical CONSERVATIVES. The only places Santorum has won have been in states with large Evangelical populations.
Why does Romney do well with non-Evangelical CONSERVATIVES and yet Evangelical conservatives shun him? It can't be based on CONSERVATIVE ideas, otherwise he would lose among non-Evangelical CONSERVATIVES as well. We are not talking about moderates here, we are talking about CONSERVATIVES.
The stats speak for themselves.
 
disneydude said:
Even if Romney were not such a flip-flopper the evangelicals would shun him for his Mormonism. The "he's not conservative" enough is just a way to mask their true motivations. Hell....they would vote for Gingrich over a mormon....what does this tell you?
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Because as we all know, Disneydude is psychic.

You do this constantly in a variety of debates disney, and its a worthless illogical tactic every time. You proclaim what project motivations onto people, contrary to what their state motivation is, and state it as if its fact and then beat upon that strawman as if the figment of your imagination that you're debating somehow proves you're correct.

It doesn't, it simply highlights your inability to debate your point.
 
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Proteus said:
Perhaps you didn't know this, but Santorum is actually Catholic.
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I did but I in terms of political stances he is very close to evangelicals; strongly against abortion, his stance on homosexuality, and birth control all fall right in line with evangelicals. If he was an evangelical he would be the evangelical poster boy :).
 
Zyphlin said:
Not surprisingly, most of these suggestions written about evangelical's are rarely by evangelicals but rather by others...more often then not liberals...TELLING us what evangelicals will due, usually coming from a prejudiced view point based around stereotypes to begin with.
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and there you are supposing on how the articles on evangelical rejection are being written WITHOUT any supporting evidence.

And you complain about "anecdotal" and "prejudice".

Sheesh.
 
disneydude said:
Just look at the stats.....that should be ample evidence.
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I've looked at the stats. I don't see any ample evidenec what so ever.

Romney does well in non-evangelical states. Romney wins handily among non-evangelical CONSERVATIVES. The only places Santorum has won have been in states with large Evangelical populations.
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In a republican primary, against other republicans, whose stances are all relatively similar. A significantly and sizable difference scenario and situation than a presidential election against a Democratic president, especially one who has strong unfavorables with the same group you're suggesting won't vote for Romney in the general.

Why does Romney do well with non-Evangelical CONSERVATIVES and yet Evangelical conservatives shun him?
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There's as much reason to believe that it's his weak stance in the past on Social issues and his view as a "moderate", something typically identified as far more important to the religious right than to other sort of conservatives, as it is to believe that its because he's a "mormon".
 
disneydude said:
LOL....except for one thing Zyph....I'm not relying on psychic power. I'm relying on primary statistics.
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Which is an entirely different scenario and setup than the national election despite your idiotic attempts to parrallel them.

Even in the primary, there are stark differences between the social conservative histories of the two major candidates in the running that provide a foundation for the split between evangelical and non-evangelical.

However, even without that, you're taking something during an election that is typically identified by scenario's where people go into secondary reasons of importance to decide their vote since the candidates are relatively similar on their statements on the major issues (Both in general push fiscal conservative messages, both push similar military views, both push similar governmental views, both oppose Obamacare, both are even talking a social conservative game current though their records are different). You are then attempting to suggest that there's some unquestionable truth that those secondary reasons will factor into the general election where the match up is SIGNIFICANTLy different.
 
Gimmesometruth said:
and there you are supposing on how the articles on evangelical rejection are being written WITHOUT any supporting evidence.
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Stating my opinion on things based on what I've seen. I have no issue what so ever acknowledging that its anecdotal.

Your issue seems to be I'm asking people if they have facts to back up their statements. You have this issue seemingly because you're assigning motive to me that I don't have. I ask for those facts not because if they don't have them their statements are worthless, but to be able to undrestand whehter or not the things they're proclaiming are based on facts or opinions. Now if they're opinions, that doesn't mean they're worthless, but one should be open to state "yeah, its opinion" if asked. I have no issues doing that what so ever. However it appears some here do.

There's nothing wrong with anecdotal statements and thoughts. There is an issue with trying to pretend that your anecdotal opinions are something other than what they are. I don't do so and freely admit when I'm stating an opinion. All I expect is the same of anyone else so as to better undrestand their argument.
 
disneydude said:
Even if Romney were not such a flip-flopper the evangelicals would shun him for his Mormonism. The "he's not conservative" enough is just a way to mask their true motivations. Hell....they would vote for Gingrich over a mormon....what does this tell you?
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I wasn't aware that a poll was conducted that asked evangelicals "What do you think of Mitt Romney" and evangelicals responded with "I hate him because he is a flip flopper and I don't like his personality"



and it was then followed with "Okay, we know you just lied to us what do you really think?" and they responded "I hate Mormons and will never vote for one"

I'm sorry but right now I think we are at the point where we really can't debate this subject because we are making two very different and big assumptions about what evangelicals really think about mormons. Unless you have some poll that shows evangelicals hate Mormons.
 
Zyphlin said:
Here is the issue. You're assuming that 17% would vote for him if he wasn't a Mormon.
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I not "assuming it", they gave the view that they would not vote for a Mormon.

Lets say most of that 17% is evangelicals, as so many liberals continue to suggest. If he was Protestant rather than Mormon, are we saying those 17% would suddenly vote for him?
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No, 17% reject if Mormon, there is no indication of how they would vote if he was poka-dot.
Or could it possibly be that his stance on abortion in the past would keep them from supporting him as well, but since the poll didn't ask about that bu tasked about mormonism we're assuming that its just the mormonism that's keeping him away. Or that they wouldn't vote for him because he's a "moderate", but again, the poll didn't control for that. The assumption people are wrongfully making is that somehow that 17% that say they won't vote for a Mormon is 17% that would've voted for him if not for that fact. There's no evidence to that.
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Yours is a straw argument, totally pointless. The point is, 17% say they WILL reject him because of his religion as will 19% of Ind and 26% of Dems...so there will be little crossover away from Obama.
 
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