Five scenarios that could finally settle the GOP race

USATODAY Story

the Republican presidential race has got to end sometime, whether it's April or August.

Here are five ways it could be settled:

1. The likeliest route: Romney pulls off a clean win by the time the last state votes in June.
2. Flying to the rescue: Superdelegates can speed up the finish
3. A contested convention: Suddenly the long-winded roll call of the states gets interesting
4. Winning by losing: Santorum grabs the chance he's been waiting for.
5. A brokered convention: The powerbrokers toss out the candidates and draft someone new.

I think the only way the Republicans can win is Scenerio #1 or #2. Anything that drags this out any longer will play right into the Dem's court.

Chiefgator said:

USATODAY Story

the Republican presidential race has got to end sometime, whether it's April or August.

Here are five ways it could be settled:

1. The likeliest route: Romney pulls off a clean win by the time the last state votes in June.
2. Flying to the rescue: Superdelegates can speed up the finish
3. A contested convention: Suddenly the long-winded roll call of the states gets interesting
4. Winning by losing: Santorum grabs the chance he's been waiting for.
5. A brokered convention: The powerbrokers toss out the candidates and draft someone new.

I think the only way the Republicans can win is Scenerio #1 or #2. Anything that drags this out any longer will play right into the Dem's court.

Click to expand...

There are only two ways Romney can lose the nomination.

1. Gingrich drops out immediately and Santorum wins most of the remaining "winner take all" states.

2. Delegates who were supposed to support Romney actually vote for other candidates on the first vote at the convention.

I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for either to happen.

5. A brokered convention: The powerbrokers toss out the candidates and draft someone new.

All the candidates are damaged, but a candidate who's not totally insane can't win a nomination in the GOP, so a brokered convention would allow the GOP to pull a clean candidate, who would have never won nomination, and try to win on anti-Obama propaganda with a candidate who's fresh to most voters and has a relatively clean image.

These are the primaries in April...

Apr: WI,MD,DC,NY,PA,CT,RI

The ones in bold are the one's with polls showing Romney with double digit leads... (It's likely he holds similar leads in MD and DC as well)

The only state in April which Santorum is favored in is the winner-take-all contest in his home state of PA. While he is favored, his lead was emense not long ago, but has dwindled to 15 pts lately. If Santorum loses PA it is definitely over for him.

However, even with the delegates from PA, the split of delegates favoring Romney in the other states pretty much assures that Romney will have this wrapped up in April.

The key will be WI, the first contest in April, and next up. It is the first of the winner-take-all states, and has a large amount of delegates. A month ago the polls had Santorum up by 15. The latest poll conducted by Ramussen in mid March had Romney up 15. If Romney wins that, it's likely the rest follow suit from there. If Romney loses WI, it will become dicey from there. Romney will still pick up NY, CT, and RI, no matter what, but the MD, DC and PA contest will be up for grabs. Still, this demographic favors Romney in a big way. He already has a large nearly insurmountable lead... but if April goes the way it goes... he will extend that lead to the point where it looks like he will make the 1144 delegates before June.

Even if he doesn't. In June Romney will have CA, and UT. So that will be a big safety net going into May, where there would be mixed results and momentum shifts.

Still, I'd be shocked if Santorum gets out before PA, but Id also be shocked if to everyone else, the race is already won by then.

Chiefgator said:

5. A brokered convention: The powerbrokers toss out the candidates and draft someone new.

Click to expand...

Very dangerous for the GOP as a party since you basically are pissing on Democracy and the vote by not following the choices of the people. I can easily see "undemocratic" protest signs from both sides of the political spectrum haunting this "new" candidate who ever it is.

PeteEU said:

Very dangerous for the GOP as a party since you basically are pissing on Democracy and the vote by not following the choices of the people. I can easily see "undemocratic" protest signs from both sides of the political spectrum haunting this "new" candidate who ever it is.

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well thing is, that's a result of democracy. it would have to be a brokered convention, i.e., the system didn't work!

DarkWizard12 said:

well thing is, that's a result of democracy. it would have to be a brokered convention, i.e., the system didn't work!

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So because you dont like the candidates that had the balls to actually run, and the system that was put in place to find a candidate is broken (on so many levels), then you have no problem picking a total unvetted stranger as the candidate to run against Obama?

How about this... your Presidential candidate is the one with most delegates and the VP is the runner up? That would mean that a huge majority of GOP primary voters voted for those two... and that is democracy in action..

And yes, change your butthead idiotic primary rules...

The best thing for republicans is that this primary goes all the way to the convention. Because we would have show sprint against Obama. Another thing, is that Obama won't know the nominee, which would make him mad, and he'll go crazy. :lol:

PeteEU said:

Very dangerous for the GOP as a party since you basically are pissing on Democracy and the vote by not following the choices of the people. I can easily see "undemocratic" protest signs from both sides of the political spectrum haunting this "new" candidate who ever it is.

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They got people to vote to reelect Dubya based on their fear of Kerry, who wasn't really all that frightening. I think they could cow their followers into voting for Jeb or Christie based on their fear of Obama. Shouldn't be that difficult.

PeteEU said:

So because you dont like the candidates that had the balls to actually run, and the system that was put in place to find a candidate is broken (on so many levels), then you have no problem picking a total unvetted stranger as the candidate to run against Obama?

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I think a total stranger is better than any of the clowns we have now. I don't see how you would disagree.

How about this...

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**** you.

your Presidential candidate is the one with most delegates and the VP is the runner up? That would mean that a huge majority of GOP primary voters voted for those two... and that is democracy in action..

And yes, change your butthead idiotic primary rules...

Click to expand...

That's only "not democratic" if people don't know the result of a brokered convention. Everyone does. How do we know people aren't just voting for Santorum or Gingrich, just so that there will be a brokered convention? I myself, definitly want more candidates, as do the majority of republicans so, I don't see how that's a problem.