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Two Under-Reported Stories of the Republican Primaries

ksu_aviator said:
So is this:

The story line that Santorum is not electable just isn't true.
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LMAO... you do realize the validity of that poll comes into question on the fact they say Santorum is doing better than Romney is 3 states which Romney beat Santorum in the primary, right?

Here is a map of the swing states, according to USA Today / Gallop (which is fairly similar to most maps of this sort);

Swing states poll: Health care victories hurt Obama and Romney in 2012

Look at the map and consider how the candidates have faired in the particular types of states.

Swing States Won:
Romney won 6 (NH, FL, NV, MI, OH, VA)
Santorum won 2 (CO, IA*) * his IA win was initially a loss, then amended to a 40 vote win, and delegates were split

States Leaning Republican Won:
Romney won 1 (AZ)
Santorum won 1 (MO*) * though, not yet, that was a straw poll, the delegate caucuses are still under way, and he's losing ground
Gingrich won 1 (GA)

Solidly Republican States Won:
Santorum won 6 (TN, OK, ND, KS, AL, MS)
Romney won 3 (WY, ID, AL)
Gingrich won 1 (SC)

States Leaning Democrat Won:
Santorum won 1 (MN)

States Solidly Democrat Won:
Romney won 5 (ME, MA, VT, WA, HI)

Does that not indicate to you whose wins are inconsequential, since Republicans have those states in the bag already... Whereas, another candidate has has strong success in the battleground states which will likely decide the election, and even potentially challenge the opposition on their turf?

Santorum won twice as many already guaranteed states
Romney won 3 times as many swing states
Romney won all of the states in Democrat areas

and yet, you think Santorum is the guy?
 
IndepCentristMA said:
The trouble is, with mental gymnasistics, if you're a Gingrich or Santorum backer, and you get that call... if you're on the fence about Romney in the general election, you say undecided or not sure... how those polls often release their results is, they don't make undecideds decide, and they don't release the amount of undecideds. So what you're not seeing is how many of these currently undecided are actually for Romney because they are ardent behind their candidate. Plus, don't tell me you don't think Santorum supporters are kneiving enough to know that if they say Romney, it helps boost Romney's image of being the better candidate to oppose Obama, so they wont purposely say Obama when asked about Romney, and answer Santorum when its Obama vs Santorum. That's the very nature of polls... they're flawed. Plus, how the question is asked can make the major difference too... Trust me, I have to hear about this from my girlfriend all the time. She's studying polling for graduate work. She and her professors all have little faith in any poll result. Stats lie, simple as that.

However, regarding this Obama not been campaigning is bogus... EVERYTHING Obama has done over the last 4-5 months has been campaiging. He's certainly not doing anything to fix America's problems. Or do you really think he just conveniently happened to be in FL, MI, OH, etc. around the very time those primaries took place... :roll: Heck, he was putting together a 17 minute movie puff piece to tout the lack of accomplishments over his presidency... He has also been out raising money, and there are Obama re-election ad banners ALL over the net... Don't kid yourself if you don't think Obama isn't campaigning... HIS STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS WAS A CAMPAIGN STUMP SPEECH... He has been jumping on the pile, tossing comment against Romney, after comment against Romney, while the other Republicans have been... David Axelrod has a response every time Romney speaks... Please tell me you really arent that ignorant to think Obama hasn't been campaigning this whole time...
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Erm, as a matter of third grade arithmetic you can tell what the undecided vote is in those polls. Hint: add up the Obama Percentage plus the Romney percentage and subtract that from 100.

Re: Obama campaigning, of course he's been fundraising and he's triangulating for the election, but you'll know it when he's ACTIVELY campaigning. Romney's been traveling the country non-stop and he and his super pac have spent tens of millions of dollars on TV ads and robocalls. Obama -- not so much.

I can't find it right now, but someone posted that an incumbent president usually jumps 5-10% in the polls once the primaries are over and the campaign proper gets underway.
 
AdamT said:
Erm, as a matter of third grade arithmetic you can tell what the undecided vote is in those polls. Hint: add up the Obama Percentage plus the Romney percentage and subtract that from 100.

Re: Obama campaigning, of course he's been fundraising and he's triangulating for the election, but you'll know it when he's ACTIVELY campaigning. Romney's been traveling the country non-stop and he and his super pac have spent tens of millions of dollars on TV ads and robocalls. Obama -- not so much.

I can't find it right now, but someone posted that an incumbent president usually jumps 5-10% in the polls once the primaries are over and the campaign proper gets underway.
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Wow, you do tend to prefer the simple answer to the reasonably sound one, dont ya?

Do you really think that when they poll these people the only question they ask is "If it were a contest between Obama and Romney who would you pick?" Then in the end the number comes out 46%-46% with 8% undecided? They actually ask a whole host of questions of these people, including what part theyre registered under, who they favor, who they think in all the matchups will win, who they would vote for, etc. Then in the end they compile the numbers. In the 46%-46%, they know which break down of 46% is made up of how many of the base, and how many are independents, and how many of the undecideds break to which party. It's not as simple as just subtract the remainder. Also, again, a Santorum supporter getting the call more than likely will intentionally say theyre gonna vote Obama if its Romney vs Obama, etc. So since there isn't a true head-to-head, these theoretical head-to-head polls are heavily flawed.

Obama isn't fully campaigning? Gnaw... really? Again, tell me something I don't know. Just because he isn't in the full court press doesn't mean he isnt actively campaigning. They have had Biden out making official campaign stops in battleground states. They released a 17 minute video to praise Obama's accomplishments in his first term. The President himself has gone out of his way to fly down to Disney on Air Force 1 for half the day during the FL primary, to MI to make several stops around Detroit rallying on the UAW, and in Ohio at manufacturing sites, to make speeches marring Republican candidates (mainly Romney) as they were in there campaigning.

Obama is actively campaigning right now, and has the unified support of his party... and yet, is tied in a sizeable Rasmussen tracking poll in a head-to-head matchup with Romney, who doesn't have full support of his party, yet...

That doesnt bode well for him... I doubt youll see this 5pt bounce you speak of... It's more than likely to be the other way... when Romney can again focus on moderate issues and regain his footing with independents...
 
IndepCentristMA said:
Wow, you do tend to prefer the simple answer to the reasonably sound one, dont ya?

Do you really think that when they poll these people the only question they ask is "If it were a contest between Obama and Romney who would you pick?" Then in the end the number comes out 46%-46% with 8% undecided? They actually ask a whole host of questions of these people, including what part theyre registered under, who they favor, who they think in all the matchups will win, who they would vote for, etc. Then in the end they compile the numbers. In the 46%-46%, they know which break down of 46% is made up of how many of the base, and how many are independents, and how many of the undecideds break to which party. It's not as simple as just subtract the remainder. Also, again, a Santorum supporter getting the call more than likely will intentionally say theyre gonna vote Obama if its Romney vs Obama, etc. So since there isn't a true head-to-head, these theoretical head-to-head polls are heavily flawed.

Obama isn't fully campaigning? Gnaw... really? Again, tell me something I don't know. Just because he isn't in the full court press doesn't mean he isnt actively campaigning. They have had Biden out making official campaign stops in battleground states. They released a 17 minute video to praise Obama's accomplishments in his first term. The President himself has gone out of his way to fly down to Disney on Air Force 1 for half the day during the FL primary, to MI to make several stops around Detroit rallying on the UAW, and in Ohio at manufacturing sites, to make speeches marring Republican candidates (mainly Romney) as they were in there campaigning.

Obama is actively campaigning right now, and has the unified support of his party... and yet, is tied in a sizeable Rasmussen tracking poll in a head-to-head matchup with Romney, who doesn't have full support of his party, yet...

That doesnt bode well for him... I doubt youll see this 5pt bounce you speak of... It's more than likely to be the other way... when Romney can again focus on moderate issues and regain his footing with independents...
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Seriously? It really is that simple. The poll question we're talking about is whether in a head-to-head contest would you prefer Obama or Romney. That other questions may be asked in the same poll is irrelevant. You can question whether or how meaningful the polls are at this point, but your lame attempt to pretend that the numbers aren't what they really are is bizarre.

Re: Obama campaigning, we can quibble about what "actively" campaigning means, but the fact is that, on a scale of 1 to 10, with one being no campaigning and 10 being full-on campaigning, Obama is at about a two and Romney has the needle pegged at 10. And Romney is still trailing by 4%. Chances are if you're batting 175 during batting practice, you're not going to be the league MVP at the end of the season. ;)
 
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