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Dem Pollsters: Voters Don't Think "America's Back"

cpwill

cpwill

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Be interesting to see if this has any effect on the Obama campaign -do they abandon the "we're back" portion of the message in favor of a 100% Class Warfare assault? Or are they So Sure Of Themselves that they just keep chugging along?

Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg is out with a must-read polling memo this morning, which offers some eye-opening advice to President Obama and his re-election team. After testing several of the president's economic messages, he finds the argument that the economy is back on the right track polls miserably - and "produces disastrous results."

"It is weaker than even the weakest Republican message and is 10 points weaker in intensity than either Republican message," Greenberg wrote. "A third said this message made them less likely to support Barack Obama. Alarmingly, this message barely receives majority support among self-identified Democrats - and even less support among all other groups."..

Despite the recent Republican foray into social issues lately, this election will be fought over the economy - and which presidential candidate voters view as offering a more compelling economic vision for the future. There's a long way to go, and the stakes are high.
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Yes, we have had one fairly decent month. 1 data point does not make a trend.
 
Truth. And between Gas Prices, Iran, and Greece; I'm thinking we are in for another bumpy year. I'm keeping my savings in cash, and not dumping it into my IRA's and ESA's until the end of the year and/or after an utter collapse (if and when it occurs).
 
Test sample questions are a paragraph long....
Are they even quotes from actual soundbits?
 
cpwill said:
Truth. And between Gas Prices, Iran, and Greece; I'm thinking we are in for another bumpy year. I'm keeping my savings in cash, and not dumping it into my IRA's and ESA's until the end of the year and/or after an utter collapse (if and when it occurs).
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Yeah same here. It sucks though because you get **** returns in savings accounts. Its not even wise to invest in energy companies because its hard to tell if the high gas prices are helping thme.
 
U.S. Macro Outlook: Training Wheels Still Needed

mz_021312_4a.GIF


If the monetary environment is still deflationary and the fiscal drag on that graph comes to pass, the economy may just eat a fat one smack dab in the middle of fall elections. Obama will not fare well in that scenario.

Then again, neither would a Republican winner in 2013.
 
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Jeezy said:
U.S. Macro Outlook: Training Wheels Still Needed

mz_021312_4a.GIF


If the monetary environment is still deflationary and the fiscal drag on that graph comes to pass, the economy may just eat a fat one smack dab in the middle of fall elections. Obama will not fare well in that scenario.

Then again, neither would a Republican winner in 2013.
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I think you will be shocked to find the economy will hold steady into the elections, gas prices will come down, Obama gets re-elected.
 
megaprogman said:
Yes, we have had one fairly decent month. 1 data point does not make a trend.
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Actually we've had something like 22 straight months of private sector job growth, among other things, but don't let that get in the way of a good conservative "sky is falling" jag. :lol:
 
SypherAL said:
I think you will be shocked to find the economy will hold steady into the elections, gas prices will come down, Obama gets re-elected.
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I think he will get relected even if the uneployment stays at 8.5. Republicans just aren't excited about their big govt conservatives.
 
cpwill said:
Be interesting to see if this has any effect on the Obama campaign -do they abandon the "we're back" portion of the message in favor of a 100% Class Warfare assault? Or are they So Sure Of Themselves that they just keep chugging along?
Click to expand...

Which doesn't mean that the electorate will believe the Republicans will get the economy back on track either.
 
I just read an opinion poll that when asked:

"Do you think the economy is beginning to recover or not?"

54% of the polled people believe the US has started to begin to recover

43% do not believe so

3% are not sure

the poll was held by Quinnipiac University, Feb. 14-20, 2012. N=2,605 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 1.9.

So it looks that a small majority do actually believe the US is on the way back.
 
It could be that the US is on its way back, which shouldn't surprise anyone anyway. The country didn't die in 2008. The gloom and doom forecasts, the constant reference to falling off a cliff, and all that, it was election rhetoric from Obama. It's been almost 38 months since he took office. His lousy stewardship of the economy (failed stimulus and failed healthcare plan and failed housing corrections) slowed the recovery down.

Why don't the liberals attribute the recovery to the GOP, since they retook control in January 2011 and the Congress is the steward of the country's money?
 
tres borrachos said:
Why don't the liberals attribute the recovery to the GOP, since they retook control in January 2011 and the Congress is the steward of the country's money?
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For the same reason they don't give Republican Congress credit for the boom in the 1990s and the Democratic congress the blame for the 2006-2008 downfall.

<partisanship>
 
So this is just common sense. The economy is recovering, but it's recovering slowly. You don't want to imply "mission accomplished" when there are still plenty of battles to win.
 
AdamT said:
Actually we've had something like 22 straight months of private sector job growth, among other things, but don't let that get in the way of a good conservative "sky is falling" jag. :lol:
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Job growth that doesnt keep pace with population and labor force growth is not effective growth. That means unemployment is going up. Yet somehow it isnt. Funny how that works out.
 
OpportunityCost said:
Job growth that doesnt keep pace with population and labor force growth is not effective growth. That means unemployment is going up. Yet somehow it isnt. Funny how that works out.
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Yep, its funny how odd things always seem to occur when Obama is running for office.
 
OpportunityCost said:
Job growth that doesnt keep pace with population and labor force growth is not effective growth. That means unemployment is going up. Yet somehow it isnt. Funny how that works out.
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Fortunately job growth is more than keeping up with population and labor force growth, as reflected in U-6 unemployment numbers. But you know, if facts don't support your argument ... just make up your own facts!
 
People aren't going to believe that the economy is booming when they're upside down on their mortgage, have a lousy job that barely pays the bills, and can't sell their house and move to greener pastures because it's upside down. They have a hard time believing that everything is great when every other house on the block is foreclosed, up for a short sale, or otherwise unoccupied.

On the other hand, people have a dim view of the idea that government is the answer to the problems we face.

Most of us can see the decline of the middle class, and the flight of middle class jobs to third world countries. Anyone can look at goods for sale and see that few of them are produced in the USA.

That's why the "America is back on track financially" meme doesn't play well.

Still, given the choices the Republicans are giving us, the economy will have to collapse completely before this election becomes anything like a sure thing for whoever is finally picked. I believe that if the pollsters were to ask, "Who do you favor in 2012, Obama, Santorum, Romney, Gingrich, or none of the above?" the latter would win by a wide margin.
 
AdamT said:
Fortunately job growth is more than keeping up with population and labor force growth, as reflected in U-6 unemployment numbers. But you know, if facts don't support your argument ... just make up your own facts!
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We went round and round on this and you are totally unable to support that the number of people entering retirement are matching pace with the number of people leaving U6, they arent getting jobs, where are they going? We have people leaving the labor force entirely.

J.P. Morgan’s Bruce Kasman on the U.S. - Businessweek
Laborforce graph.jpg

Here is evidence to the contrary of your supposition:
Think it's time to retire? Not so fast - Business - Careers - msnbc.com
Retirement_Age_Chart.gif

Im not making up a damn thing and you need to stop insinuating that I am. Sick and tired of your baiting crap.
 
Still, given the choices the Republicans are giving us, the economy will have to collapse completely before this election becomes anything like a sure thing for whoever is finally picked. I believe that if the pollsters were to ask, "Who do you favor in 2012, Obama, Santorum, Romney, Gingrich, or none of the above?" the latter would win by a wide margin.
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Swing states poll: Health care victories hurt Obama and Romney in 2012

Mess with that and click swing voters. Obama is going to win blue states, looks like hes going to have a problem with swing states. He needs the swing states to stand a chance at winning.
 
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