Romney not a shoe-in, as I previously thought

One thing missing from the Romney campaign is enthusiasm. Are Republicans are going to vote for another candidate in the primaries? Possibly. Santorum is looking more and more every day like the man to beat. We will know after Super Tuesday. For now, it does not look good for Mitt. Just look at this, and then tell me how Romney can expect to become president with this kind of a turnout at his rallies?

I am starting to sympathize with you on this. Before the first vote was ever taken in Iowa I felt this was over and done with and Mitt was already the Chosen One. However, the last month or two has given us some very interesting moments. For this to really be a horse race, two things need to happen :

1- Romney needs to be badly embarrassed by losing Michigan next Tuesday. Not that he could not survive the delegate loss since he will win that night in Arizona - but it will be a blow to his aura of enevibility as well as electibility.
2- Then, on Super Tuesday, he must fail to win a majority of the delegates at stake.

If those two things happen, we really have a contest and all the talk of a brokered convention could be something to listen to.

Romney's biggest problem is that he is getting hammered by both the right-wing and leftists who are both hoping to stop him from getting the nomination. Its fascinating watching the left and right work together for the same purpose, but for different reasons. I love how the UAW is hammering Romney in Michigan. If we can take Romney out with the help of the right-wing base of the GOP...this election is going to be cake.

Disneydude,

I totally agree with your above assessment.

The youth may give Ron Paul some votes, but he won't garner nearly enough support to overtake Romney or Santorum though he may overtake Gingrinch in the end. Plus, Paul's isolationist views worry folks. He may be right that the U.S. doesn't need to have military bases all across the globe, but with the treat of a nuclear armed Iran making such threatening postures and China's growing military I don't think people will be so quick to insist on closing our military outposts abroad so quickly.

The wealthy will support Mitt Romney, but I don't think he'll receive enough of the Independent, Conservative and definitely not the crossover liberal vote to make a difference. I also doubt he'll get enough of the Evangelical vote let alone the women vote. Still, he'll put up a good fight.

A significant portion of the religious vote will go to Rick Santorum but it won't be nearly enough for him to win the GOP primary. People are starting to see that he's trying to spread his brand of religion on the nation and that worries many people. They see how "one-religion" or religious idealism is affecting other nations abroad and worry that a person who practically wears his religion on his sleeves can easily weave his religious idealism into national politics. If you're worried about Shariah Law encroaching on our social or legal system, then you need to keep close watch on Rick Santorum. This last debate also hurt him really bad. Ron Paul and Mitt Romney exposed him for not being as Conservative as he portray himself to be.

And you can forget about Newt Gingrich getting the primary knod. He's just too zany and too much of a warmongerer cloaked in "American exceptionalism" to get the nomination. Besides, he doesn't even have the support of his own party! How in the world can he expect that the nation would give him their vote if his own party doesn't want him in the White House let alone back in Congress?

If Romney loses Michigan, it's all over for the GOP's chances of winning the 2012 presidency and the party knows it.

The latest polls taken here in Michigan after the debate show Romney has turned it around and now has a lead. I fully expect him to win on Tuesday. Among the factors giving Romney the win are
1- a four or five to one spending advantage
2- virtually the entire establishment Michigan GOP behind Romney
3- a very strong debate performance this week
4- another split field allowing Romney to win despite a minority of voters in his favor.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ion/michigan/2012_michigan_republican_primary

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Michigan shows Romney with 40% of the vote and former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum with 34%. The poll was conducted on Thursday night, following the last scheduled debate among the GOP candidates.

Click to expand...

haymarket said:

The latest polls taken here in Michigan after the debate show Romney has turned it around and now has a lead. I fully expect him to win on Tuesday. Among the factors giving Romney the win are
1- a four or five to one spending advantage
2- virtually the entire establishment Michigan GOP behind Romney
3- a very strong debate performance this week
4- another split field allowing Romney to win despite a minority of voters in his favor.

2012 Michigan Republican Primary - Rasmussen Reports™

Click to expand...

The only good thing about Romney winning Michigan is that it will keep this circus going for a lot longer. I'm waiting for another Newt surge on Super Tuesday....lets keep this thing going...the longer it does, the better for Obama

Romney appears to have hit a "glass ceiling" of not being able to attract more than 25% of the Republican vote despite outspending the campaigns of all the other candidates combined.

His saving grace has been that the antiRomney vote is being spit among 3 candidates but whether he can obtain a majority of votes before the primary appears in jeporady.

If the race was reduced to 2 candidates, it would force the issue!

Ok... will Republicans please stop blaming the media for Romney's downfall? I don't need a news station to tell me this guy is a tool. Just watching his reactions, demeanor, and attitude towards social and economic policies scare me away. Trust me, I'm not democrat, but with the current GOP field as is, my vote is going to Obama.

I liked santorum early in the race (I am from Iowa). He seemed like a down to earth guy who could relate to my lifestyle and beliefs. That was until he got EXTREME on me. I want to know who is running these guy's campaigns because its a damn shame. These guys are either complete tools or need new campaign leadership.

haymarket said:

The latest polls taken here in Michigan after the debate show Romney has turned it around and now has a lead. I fully expect him to win on Tuesday. Among the factors giving Romney the win are
1- a four or five to one spending advantage
2- virtually the entire establishment Michigan GOP behind Romney
3- a very strong debate performance this week
4- another split field allowing Romney to win despite a minority of voters in his favor.

2012 Michigan Republican Primary - Rasmussen Reports™

Click to expand...

1. that is true but it has not mattered so far.
2. Not to sure of that
3. No one won that debate.
4. Lately Santorum has been winning them all despite any split field

I will say Romeny better win his home state.

But even if Romney were a shoe-in, he would still struggle massively in the general election with Florida maybe being the "one to get state" for the presidency. And personally I doubt he could ever win that state because the jewish people in that state will (at least IMHO) will go big for Obama (if the Obama camp smartly plays it on Romney's faith).