Obama poised to win 2012 election with 303 electoral votes: The Signal Forecast

With fewer than nine months to go before Election Day, The Signal predicts that Barack Obama will win the presidential contest with 303 electoral votes to the Republican nominee's 235.

How do we know? We don't, of course. Campaigns and candidates evolve, and elections are dynamic events with more variables than can reasonably be distilled in an equation. But the data--based on a prediction engine created by Yahoo! scientists--suggest a second term is likely for the current president. This model does not use polls or prediction markets to directly gauge what voters are thinking. Instead, it forecasts the results of the Electoral College based on past elections, economic indicators, measures of state ideology, presidential approval ratings, incumbency, and a few other politically agnostic factors.

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Now before you Democrats start crowing, you need to understand that The Signal has been about 80% correct in predicting elections, but this one is much closer than that, so I put the Odds at Obama winning much lower. Still, Obama does have the advantage, but lots of things can change between now and election day. Even if nothing changes, there are 3 very important states on the map that are swing states, and could go either way. Check out the following table, which gives the odds in each state, and also predicts the popular vote in each state:



Now take a look at Virginia, Ohio, and New Hampshire. The votes for Obama in these states are 50.22, 50.32, and 50.82, respectively. The margin of error is + or - 3 percent. The odds of Obama winning any of them are 52.00%, 52.95%, and 57.83%, respectively. There is a statistical margin of error here too. Given that all other states, Democratic and Republican alike, are a cinch for their candidate (not a sure thing either), what Republicans are going to have to do is win these 3 belweather states. This is doable. If Mitt Romney wins the nomination, this is going to be much closer than anybody thinks, maybe as close as Bush-Gore. I believe that Romney will be able to take much more of the moderate Independents than Santorum will, hence my prediction of Romney as the nominee, despite the recent upsurge of Santorum, who I believe will end up as just another Republican anti-Romney flavor of the day, just like the rest of the also rans.

So don't look at the headline and assume that Obama is going to win. This election is going to be a nail biter, as it goes right down to the wire. And Obama is not going to be the sure thing Democrats believe he is either.

Article is here.

This election was the Republican's to lose. They're doing a great job at it by postulating weak candidates, cheap campaign slogans and rookie blunders.

I'm no political sophisticate--I'm from the KISS school, but as a "regular" and "normal" American, I'm pretty sure that if gas prices approach or go over $5 a gallon, Obama will find himself in fatal trouble in the fall.

nota bene said:

I'm no political sophisticate--I'm from the KISS school, but as a "regular" and "normal" American, I'm pretty sure that if gas prices approach or go over $5 a gallon, Obama will find himself in fatal trouble in the fall.

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Well, I think Obama can get around that by lying us into another war, like Bush did with Iraq. Warships are all around Iran right now, and Obama is pushing the rhetoric. I predict that we will be at war with Iran by August, if not much sooner.

And that's a conservative estimate...

Get it, conservative.:lol:

danarhea said:

Well, I think Obama can get around that by lying us into another war, like Bush did with Iraq. Warships are all around Iran right now, and Obama is pushing the rhetoric. I predict that we will be at war with Iran by August, if not much sooner.

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Good God I hope not.

nota bene said:

I'm no political sophisticate--I'm from the KISS school, but as a "regular" and "normal" American, I'm pretty sure that if gas prices approach or go over $5 a gallon, Obama will find himself in fatal trouble in the fall.

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I don't expect anyone sane or intelligent, to blame Obama for that.

he has very little control over oil prices in the USA.

nota bene said:

I'm no political sophisticate--I'm from the KISS school, but as a "regular" and "normal" American, I'm pretty sure that if gas prices approach or go over $5 a gallon, Obama will find himself in fatal trouble in the fall.

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Do you know how gas prices work? :roll:

Hatuey said:

This election was the Republican's to lose. They're doing a great job at it by postulating weak candidates, cheap campaign slogans and rookie blunders.

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Not to mention dragging out their nomination. The Obama campaign is going to have a field day with the insults leveled by the GOP candidates at each other. They are doing his work for him right now. The GOP should have rallied behind Romney right from the start, made the nomination a non-event and prevented the blood letting that's going on.

Hatuey said:

This election was the Republican's to lose. They're doing a great job at it by postulating weak candidates, cheap campaign slogans and rookie blunders.

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If Obama is doing a good job, how is this "his election to lose"? I would argue the opposite. Iraq was already winding down when he stepped in, the economy had bottomed out in his first year, the unpopular (but necessary) bailout package had already been passed, and the Republican party was still reeling from the Bush presidency. Considering that the model in the OP shows that the employment and economic ROC is more of a deciding factor than the state of the economy itself, this is his election to WIN.

I agree this primary season has been a mess for Republicans but if you look at the resumes of both Romney and Gingrich they are both great candidates. They've just proven that the Republican party sucks at winning the likability contest by running ****ty, old-fashioned campaigns. Hell, you guys ran Chris Dodd and John Edwards in 2008. Dodd's the buffoon who runs the MPAA and tried defend SOPA after the internet blackout day. Edwards makes Gingrich look like a saint.

poweRob said:

Good God I hope not.

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It will be Obama's fallback should he start looking vulnerable come early summer. Otherwise, it won't happen. It doesn't NEED to.

00timh said:

It will be Obama's fallback should he start looking vulnerable come early summer. Otherwise, it won't happen. It doesn't NEED to.

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Don't be absurd. Obama is not going to attack Iran. If he did it would have the exact opposite effect that you conjecture it might. It would cause the price of oil to skyrocket. See e.g. Iraq War.

AdamT said:

Don't be absurd. Obama is not going to attack Iran. If he did it would have the exact opposite effect that you conjecture it might. It would cause the price of oil to skyrocket. See e.g. Iraq War.

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Yeah, it would likely have a bad effect on the price of oil. Hell, Iran talking **** is already doing that. But then therein lies an opprtunity. Since Iran is already causing oil to rise, Obama can say he is taking care of the situation that will eventually lead to drastically lower prices. Obama could also counter the Iran effect if he really wanted to by drastically reducing regulations, restrictions and opening up substantial increases in U.S. productivity and future productivity, so the Iran conflict could have a negligable effect on oil prices.

Hatuey said:

Do you know how gas prices work? :roll:

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It doesn't matter how gas prices work.

At 5 dollars a gallon, Obama suffers the consequences.

00timh said:

Yeah, it would likely have a bad effect on the price of oil. Hell, Iran talking **** is already doing that. But then therein lies an opprtunity. Since Iran is already causing oil to rise, Obama can say he is taking care of the situation that will eventually lead to drastically lower prices. Obama could also counter the Iran effect if he really wanted to by drastically reducing regulations, restrictions and opening up substantial increases in U.S. productivity and future productivity, so the Iran conflict could have a negligable effect on oil prices.

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The only thing Obama could really do to reduce prices would be to release oil from the national reserve and push for a reduction in gas taxes. Reducing regulation and removing drilling restrictions would have a miniscule effect that wouldn't be felt for years.

AdamT said:

The only thing Obama could really do to reduce prices would be to release oil from the national reserve and push for a reduction in gas taxes. Reducing regulation and removing drilling restrictions would have a miniscule effect that wouldn't be felt for years.

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US DOT Misreports Gasoline Tax Revenue

even reducing federal gas taxes can only do soo much.

the only good solution, is more fuel efficient cars, and other sources of energy.

AdamT said:

The only thing Obama could really do to reduce prices would be to release oil from the national reserve and push for a reduction in gas taxes. Reducing regulation and removing drilling restrictions would have a miniscule effect that wouldn't be felt for years.

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The actual crude oil supply might take years to be realized but markets are forward-looking and any drastic reduction in drilling regulations would surely impact the crude oil futures market.

Rhapsody1447 said:

The actual crude oil supply might take years to be realized but markets are forward-looking and any drastic reduction in drilling regulations would surely impact the crude oil futures market.

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Even if we opened every conceivable area to drilling, it wouldn't have much impact on oil prices even 10 years down the road. It would be something like one penny per gallon -- according to the EIA.

AdamT said:

Don't be absurd. Obama is not going to attack Iran. If he did it would have the exact opposite effect that you conjecture it might. It would cause the price of oil to skyrocket. See e.g. Iraq War.

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I wouldn't be surprised to see Israel hit Iran just before our election to force Obama's hand.

00timh said:

Obama could also counter the Iran effect if he really wanted to by... opening up substantial increases in U.S. productivity

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Seems he's already accomplished that, but once again the Obama-Haters prefer to ignore the facts...

2010 & 2011 domestic crude oil production is the highest it's been since 2003. FACT! Next...

nota bene said:

I'm no political sophisticate--I'm from the KISS school, but as a "regular" and "normal" American, I'm pretty sure that if gas prices approach or go over $5 a gallon, Obama will find himself in fatal trouble in the fall.

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Thunder said:

I don't expect anyone sane or intelligent, to blame Obama for that.

he has very little control over oil prices in the USA.

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AdamT said:

Don't be absurd. Obama is not going to attack Iran. If he did it would have the exact opposite effect that you conjecture it might. It would cause the price of oil to skyrocket. See e.g. Iraq War.

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PerfectStorm said:

It doesn't matter how gas prices work.

At 5 dollars a gallon, Obama suffers the consequences.

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AdamT said:

The only thing Obama could really do to reduce prices would be to release oil from the national reserve and push for a reduction in gas taxes. Reducing regulation and removing drilling restrictions would have a miniscule effect that wouldn't be felt for years.

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I was hoping someone would make the obvious point.

Thank you, AdamT.

Thunder, you are also correct...

Thunder said:

US DOT Misreports Gasoline Tax Revenue

even reducing federal gas taxes can only do soo much.

the only good solution, is more fuel efficient cars, and other sources of energy.

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I know many Republicans love to make the Obama = Carter comparison, but Carter was right. Until this country takes energy independency far more seriously, America's fuel prices will continue to tied to the whimes of OPEC. And all it would take to send fuel prices through the roofis is for some crisis to occur over there (or oil price manipulation to ensue).

Pushing for energy conservation (i.e., more fuel efficient vehicles), as well as alternative and renewable energy sources (i.e., solar, wind, biofuels, even nuclear) will help reduce our dependence on foriegn oil, extend our own energy resources and make us a leading exporter of domestic energy again (i.e., oil/coal, biofuels). We just need the oil industry/oil producing states to back off and see reason and for politicians to understand the peak oil threat that's been looming large in this country for nearly 40 years and get behind new energy resources with far more urgency. Unfortunately, no one seems to act in this country unless and until there's no more money to be made in a particular industry or the crisis is forced upon us.

But I digress since the thread topic is about President Obama winning re-election in 2012. I think he wins because he'll be able to make the argument that none of the Republican candidates are offerring any ideas that are different from his own. Moreover, all he'd have to do is replay the last 10 mins. of the So. Carolina GOP debate, as well as the Gov. Daniel's rebuttal to the 2012 SOUA where both Rep. Ron Paul and Gov. Daniels both stated firmly that "the Republican Party is in no position to govern right now".

BOOM! He wins handily. Look at the dysfunction that has taken place from the party to date?

The biggest problem the Republicans have is they have no canidate to run, I even heard if there was a run off in the Republican nomination that Sara Palin might even try to run. The party is a mess.

poweRob said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see Israel hit Iran just before our election to force Obama's hand.

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Depends on how the election is going. If there's a chance Obama might lose I think they would wait, figuring that whichever Republican came in would be only too happy to lead the charge. Lord knows that Romney and Santorum have been dueling to see who can rattle his saber the loudest.

The interesting thing about these numbers is that the Obama campaign hasn't spent a dollar yet. Wait until they have somebody to run against.

PerfectStorm said:

It doesn't matter how gas prices work.

At 5 dollars a gallon, Obama suffers the consequences.

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You conservative still don't get it. Obama is the chess master and GOP-TP congress are just pawns.

Look at the contraceptive thing, Obama got exactly what he wanted, FREE contraceptives, and looked like the great-compramiser.

They were played.