• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!
  • Welcome to our archives. No new posts are allowed here.

Obama poised to win 2012 election with 303 electoral votes: The Signal Forecast

danarhea said:
So don't look at the headline and assume that Obama is going to win. This election is going to be a nail biter, as it goes right down to the wire. And Obama is not going to be the sure thing Democrats believe he is either.
Click to expand...

The old expression "It's the economy stupid" is always in play. And right now the tide is turning. Short of something changing, the repubs no longer have anything to stand upon. Not that they ever stood for anything anyway.

The other problem righties have is the front runners are devoid of talent.

This one won't be close.
 
Wiggen said:
The interesting thing about these numbers is that the Obama campaign hasn't spent a dollar yet. Wait until they have somebody to run against.
Click to expand...

Actually the republicans are better off with no one running. These empty suits they are running out there aren't doing them any favors.
 
Justice For All said:
The biggest problem the Republicans have is they have no canidate to run, I even heard if there was a run off in the Republican nomination that Sara Palin might even try to run. The party is a mess.
Click to expand...

Maybe Allen West could step in, he would be perfect.
 
Rhapsody1447 said:
If Obama is doing a good job, how is this "his election to lose"? I would argue the opposite. Iraq was already winding down when he stepped in, the economy had bottomed out in his first year, the unpopular (but necessary) bailout package had already been passed, and the Republican party was still reeling from the Bush presidency. Considering that the model in the OP shows that the employment and economic ROC is more of a deciding factor than the state of the economy itself, this is his election to WIN.

I agree this primary season has been a mess for Republicans but if you look at the resumes of both Romney and Gingrich they are both great candidates. They've just proven that the Republican party sucks at winning the likability contest by running ****ty, old-fashioned campaigns. Hell, you guys ran Chris Dodd and John Edwards in 2008. Dodd's the buffoon who runs the MPAA and tried defend SOPA after the internet blackout day. Edwards makes Gingrich look like a saint.
Click to expand...


LOL. Funny stuff right there. Righties give Obama no credit for Iraq and all the blame for the bad in the economy goes to him. Hilarious
 
Amigo said:
Maybe Allen West could step in, he would be perfect.
Click to expand...

Rep. Allen West is comfortable right where he is - keeping his congressional seat warm from Florida. He'll remain on the sidelines being a conservative cheerleader while also being one more anti-Obama voice among many from the Right. Besides, Rep. West has about as much national appeal as does Rick Santorum which isn't saying much. He'd lose any political gains he has achieved thus far by jumping into the fray. He's better off staying right where he is - on the sidelines.
 
danarhea said:
Now before you Democrats start crowing, you need to understand that The Signal has been about 80% correct in predicting elections, but this one is much closer than that, so I put the Odds at Obama winning much lower. Still, Obama does have the advantage, but lots of things can change between now and election day. Even if nothing changes, there are 3 very important states on the map that are swing states, and could go either way. Check out the following table, which gives the odds in each state, and also predicts the popular vote in each state:

[snip]

Now take a look at Virginia, Ohio, and New Hampshire. The votes for Obama in these states are 50.22, 50.32, and 50.82, respectively. The margin of error is + or - 3 percent. The odds of Obama winning any of them are 52.00%, 52.95%, and 57.83%, respectively. There is a statistical margin of error here too. Given that all other states, Democratic and Republican alike, are a cinch for their candidate (not a sure thing either), what Republicans are going to have to do is win these 3 belweather states. This is doable. If Mitt Romney wins the nomination, this is going to be much closer than anybody thinks, maybe as close as Bush-Gore. I believe that Romney will be able to take much more of the moderate Independents than Santorum will, hence my prediction of Romney as the nominee, despite the recent upsurge of Santorum, who I believe will end up as just another Republican anti-Romney flavor of the day, just like the rest of the also rans.

So don't look at the headline and assume that Obama is going to win. This election is going to be a nail biter, as it goes right down to the wire. And Obama is not going to be the sure thing Democrats believe he is either.

Article is here.
Click to expand...
One of the easiest way to loose an election is to think you have it won; it never pays to be overconfident. The woman who ran to replace Sen. Ted Kennedy against Scott Brown for Senate in Massachusetts comes to mind.
 
Thunder said:
US DOT Misreports Gasoline Tax Revenue

even reducing federal gas taxes can only do soo much.

the only good solution, is more fuel efficient cars, and other sources of energy.
Click to expand...

Gas just hit $7/gallon here, hence average cars have 1.3 to 1.5 litre engines. Why can't y'all persuade US car makers to follow suit?
 
Andalublue said:
Gas just hit $7/gallon here, hence average cars have 1.3 to 1.5 litre engines. Why can't y'all persuade US car makers to follow suit?
Click to expand...

Unfortunately Americans won't buy them ... until gas prices hit something like $7/gallon.
 
Andalublue said:
Gas just hit $7/gallon here, hence average cars have 1.3 to 1.5 litre engines. Why can't y'all persuade US car makers to follow suit?
Click to expand...

Where exactly in Nevada are you? In the Reno, Fallon, Fernley area it is still $3.55 a gallon.
 
read a quote recently from someone in the GOP and it read " any Mammal could beat Obama right now, problem is all we have to offer are lizards"
 
TheNextEra said:
Where exactly in Nevada are you? In the Reno, Fallon, Fernley area it is still $3.55 a gallon.
Click to expand...

Nevada? I'm in the Sierra Nevada, Granada, Spain. Not Sierra, Nevada. Ha-ha!

Here gas sells at €1.40/l = $7. In the UK and France it's over $8.
 
pbrauer said:
One of the easiest way to loose an election is to think you have it won; it never pays to be overconfident. The woman who ran to replace Sen. Ted Kennedy against Scott Brown for Senate in Massachusetts comes to mind.
Click to expand...

Good advice. In the business of advising candidates, we have one bit of advice for them ..... "there are only two ways to run for public office: unopposed or behind".
 
danarhea said:
And Obama is not going to be the sure thing Democrats believe he is either.
Click to expand...

Democrats don't believe he is a sure thing. That's why the DNC isn't allowing any primary challengers to keep him honest.
 
samsmart said:
Democrats don't believe he is a sure thing. That's why the DNC isn't allowing any primary challengers to keep him honest.
Click to expand...


"isn't allowing any primary challengers"
Click to expand...

I must have missed that news item. Could you please provide more on this?
 
haymarket said:
I must have missed that news item. Could you please provide more on this?
Click to expand...

It's not a news item, but it's what I think.

There is a great deal of liberal discontent when it comes to Obama, especially on civil liberties issues.

The Liberal Critique of Obama: Judging the President by His Own Standards - Conor Friedersdorf - Politics - The Atlantic

If there's this much discontent from common Democrats then I don't think leaders in the Democratic Party are as lock-step as they appear to be. And I think that because of the amount of resistance he gets from the Republican Party, Democratic leaders are stamping down on primary challengers from his own party. The reason why is because they fear it may hurt his chances of re-election, since his chances are so slim. I think that party Democrats would go that far in order to keep a Republican out of the White House.

At the very least the leaders in the Republican Party are willing to challenge their presidential incumbents and favorites for the nomination. At least they're willing to have the debate.
 
Look sam - I favored Obama not running again and seeing Clinton run in his place. So I can see where you are coming from. However,the fact that no Democratic Party contender stepped forth to challenge the President in the primaries does not equate with stating that the DNC prevented such a thing from happening.
 
haymarket said:
Look sam - I favored Obama not running again and seeing Clinton run in his place. So I can see where you are coming from. However,the fact that no Democratic Party contender stepped forth to challenge the President in the primaries does not equate with stating that the DNC prevented such a thing from happening.
Click to expand...

You're right in that it is very likely that the DNC hasn't prevented Democratic primary challengers to Obama.

Even so, I still retain my cynical opinion on the matter.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom