If Rassmuseen gave Obama a favorable rating about anything I'd be terribly surprised...
...but I still wouldn't trust it.
So the months and months and months and months that Rasmussen has had Obama over the vast majority of every Presidential candidate on the Republican side must've given you a heart attack from shock then.
:roll:
"Rasmussen polls show Obama over Santorum"
Left: *Silence*
"Rasmussen polls show Obama over Santorum"
Left: *Silence*
"Rasmussen polls show Obama over Santorum"
Left: *Silence*
"Rasmussen polls show Obama over Santorum"
Left: *Silence*
"Rasmussen polls show Obama over Santorum"
Left: *Silence*
"Rasmussen polls show Santorum over Obama"
Left: OMG! ITS CONSERVATIVE BIAS! KILL IT WITH FIRE!
Liberals who immedietely simply dismiss Rasmussen are being as ridiculous as Conservatives who simply take it as the only worth while poll. People who point recent races as the only indication as to whether or not Rasmussen is useful are being ridiculously cherry picking by ignoring the high quality of their picks for much of the decade before that.
The reality is that Rasmussen's polling methods and trends is well known, not as an inherent purposeful "conservative bias" but rather a methodology that lends itself to better measure likely voters. Older voters tend to be the more consistent voting block, as are those who actually identify themselves as likely voteres. Anyone with a little bit of knowlege of Rasmussen knows that this is what the poll gears too. Knowing that, looking at trends within that poll itself, and comparing it to others can give you very useful data.
The Democratic base is made up of a multitude of disparate parts that do not necessarily directly correlate even though they often are viewed together. Those who make up the anti-war movement could easily not be part of the pro-choice movement who could easily not be part of the environmental movement who could potentially not be part of the "civil rights" movement which itself can be split between african americans and the LGBT community. While often they interconnect some, its largely a mass of individual groups all under th Democratic umbrella. If the Republicans are the "Big Tent" then the Democrats are like an outdoor carnival with different attractions all over and loosely enclosed in a particular area.
If you say that 33% of the country leans right and 33% lean left, what you'd likely find is that the right likely has a larger strong more politicall motivated "base" in that 33% that can be counted on to come out and vote than the left. So in years where there's voter apathy towards the Democratic nominee, likely voter polls will likely look accurate. In years where voter attitude towards the Democratic nominee is an extremely positive and energized one, then those polls are likely going to paint an inaccurate picture. This is why Rasmussen's pick in 2004 and in 2008, given the nature of the Democratic base in both elections, is not surprising but relatively expected.
We can look at this and say that, while it doesn't necessarily mean that Santorum WOULD beat Obama (actually, I'd say it definitely doesn't say that. Obama, whlie not nearly the pop icon of 2008, is still popular enough with the portions of the base that he'll drive many out to vote that normally wouldn't be likely voters), it does tell us that Santorum is having a small surge within the Republican base. There's a sudden and relatively strong uptick in support for him within the base and the public in general in the belief that he could be viable. It's a good sign for him, but not in any way a sign that he would beat Obama. The polls, by and large...and you should take a macro level collected view of them...indicate he'd have a hard time. However, he is improving a bit in standing which is a positive, regardless of whether or not its Rasmussen or not showing it.