I agree with you here Maggie! So does quantitative historian, Allan Lichtman, and the mathematical system of prediction he developed for presidential elections:
"The 13 Keys to the Presidency"
"
If six or more of these statements are false, the incumbent party loses. "
1. After the midterm election, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the preceding midterm election. (FALSE)
2. The incumbent-party nominee gets at least two-thirds of the vote on the first ballot at the nominating convention. (TRUE)
3. The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. (TRUE)
4. There is no third-party or independent candidacy that wins at least five percent of the vote. (TRUE)
5. The economy is not in recession during the campaign. (Probably TRUE)
6. Real (constant-dollar) per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth for the preceding two terms. (FALSE)
7. The administration achieves a major policy change during the term, on the order of the New Deal or the first-term Reagan “revolution.” (TRUE)
8. There has been no major social unrest during the term, sufficient to cause deep concerns about the unraveling of society. (TRUE)
9. There is no broad recognition of a scandal that directly touches the president. (TRUE)
10. There has been no military or foreign policy failure during the term, substantial enough that it appears to undermine America’s national interests significantly or threaten its standing in the world. (UNCERTAIN)
11. There has been a military or foreign policy success during the term substantial enough to advance America’s national interests or improve its standing in the world. (FALSE)
12. The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or is a national hero. (FALSE)
13. The challenger is not charismatic and is not a national hero. (TRUE)
If six or more of these statements are false, the incumbent party loses. "
Election 2012: The