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The majority of people only consider the presidential election and partisanship - because that is what the media does. Yet my perspective of what is at stake is quite different - and more in terms of reality.
First, it is my opinion that the demographics too heavily favor Obama that short of a major economic downturn he will win re-election and it will be a very bitter fight. Rather, the issue is about Congress, state and even local races. For Republicans and to consider the effects of the remaining candidates - which one to pick - the question more realistically which one most helps and hurts down-the-ticket Republicans?
For example, a really boring general election likely will keep minority voter percentages down, favoring Republicans down the ticket (probably). Thus, a milk toast candidate such as Romney might be superior. Or a fireball like Gingrich my be better at the fear-factor he can put on Obama - but himself doing worse against Obama in the general, but better outcomes for other Republicans.
Unless Obama can get hold of the House of Representatives, nothing is going to change and it will continue to be absurd partisan gridlock, for which Obama will pursue his goals through administrative government. If Republicans somehow gained the senate, it might actually harm Republicans more for 2014 and 2016 as they then more are at fault for problems.
Thus, ideally, Republicans want as strong a House of Representatives, plus governors and other lower ticket wins as possible, but not necessarily the Senate.
Which Republican candidate do you think would better help down-the-ticket Republicans or Democrats?
It really isn't just about the Presidential election. There will be 10,000 other elections going on across the country between Republicans and Democrats. How do you think Congressional and governorship races will go in 2012? Is the Tea Party picking the Republican primary candidates this time. Not hearing much about that.
First, it is my opinion that the demographics too heavily favor Obama that short of a major economic downturn he will win re-election and it will be a very bitter fight. Rather, the issue is about Congress, state and even local races. For Republicans and to consider the effects of the remaining candidates - which one to pick - the question more realistically which one most helps and hurts down-the-ticket Republicans?
For example, a really boring general election likely will keep minority voter percentages down, favoring Republicans down the ticket (probably). Thus, a milk toast candidate such as Romney might be superior. Or a fireball like Gingrich my be better at the fear-factor he can put on Obama - but himself doing worse against Obama in the general, but better outcomes for other Republicans.
Unless Obama can get hold of the House of Representatives, nothing is going to change and it will continue to be absurd partisan gridlock, for which Obama will pursue his goals through administrative government. If Republicans somehow gained the senate, it might actually harm Republicans more for 2014 and 2016 as they then more are at fault for problems.
Thus, ideally, Republicans want as strong a House of Representatives, plus governors and other lower ticket wins as possible, but not necessarily the Senate.
Which Republican candidate do you think would better help down-the-ticket Republicans or Democrats?
It really isn't just about the Presidential election. There will be 10,000 other elections going on across the country between Republicans and Democrats. How do you think Congressional and governorship races will go in 2012? Is the Tea Party picking the Republican primary candidates this time. Not hearing much about that.
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