Romney vs. Obama - More complicated than it seems

With Mitt Romney the presumed nominee for the GOP, polls are flying, and they are very interesting too. Obama leads Romney nationally, and if it holds up it does not guarantee an Obama victory, for we are talking about the popular vote, not electoral votes. Romney leads Obama in Florida. This could very well be one of those elections where Obama wins the popular vote but loses the electoral vote, and thus Romney becomes president. There are a couple of hitches in that, though. Obama actually leads Romney by one point in North Carolina. What does it all say? Nothing, really, since the election is months away, but right now, I am going to go out on a limb, and predict that, in an election that will be a nail biter, the winner is......

I don't know. LOL.

Discussion?

Traditionally the challenger has had their highest point in the polls during the primary. During the primary all the press is on the challenger, they are new and exciting, they haven't had time to offend too many people yet, the incumbent isn't campaigning yet really, the challenger hasn't really been heavily attacked yet by the incumbent who is waiting to see who the nominee will be before blowing a ton of money, while not only has the challenger been attacking the incumbent, but he's been backed up by all those competing for the nomination who are doing the same thing. It should be the best possible circumstances for the challenger.

Typically, the challenger will drop by around 10% in the polls relative to the incumbent between the primary and the general. For example, Dole was beating Clinton by 3% during the primary, but he lost by 8%. Kerry was up by 8% during the primary, but lost by 3% in the general.

The times when somebody has done better in the general than they were polling during the primary- eg Reagan- are when something unexpected happened. In that case, the Iranian hostage crisis that was still unfolding during the general. Barring something unexpected, we'll probably see about a 10% drop. If that happens, the final result in the popular vote would be 56.9% Obama, 35.1% Romney (plus the undecideds would presumably follow the same sort of division). That would be the biggest landslide since Reagan won 49 states against Mondale.

danarhea said:

With Mitt Romney the presumed nominee for the GOP, polls are flying, and they are very interesting too. Obama leads Romney nationally, and if it holds up it does not guarantee an Obama victory, for we are talking about the popular vote, not electoral votes. Romney leads Obama in Florida. This could very well be one of those elections where Obama wins the popular vote but loses the electoral vote, and thus Romney becomes president. There are a couple of hitches in that, though. Obama actually leads Romney by one point in North Carolina. What does it all say? Nothing, really, since the election is months away, but right now, I am going to go out on a limb, and predict that, in an election that will be a nail biter, the winner is......

I don't know. LOL.

Discussion?

Click to expand...

I'm with you, dude.

Obama has been padding his resume for months now first with the Iraqi pullout. And now the military budget cuts. He was losing too many of his core voters and their energy is what got him in last time. He doesn't want to run against Romney because he's middle ground but it's looking good for him. All the Romney adds in Florida are saying, "I'll bring this country back from debt." Romney will be saying debt, debt, debt till Obama's ready to scream and cry. Nail biter, Yes but Romney would win because too many won't show up at the polls for the Dems.

I think if it comes down to Mitt or Barack the deciding factor among voters will be that Barack provides better parody opportunities for SNL essentially giving Barack another term...

Awesome! said:

I think if it comes down to Mitt or Barack the deciding factor among voters will be that Barack provides better parody opportunities for SNL essentially giving Barack another term...

Click to expand...

You can't possibly know that until we know which cast member will do Romney. Their Obama is kind of meh in my opinion.

danarhea said:

What does it all say? Nothing, really, since the election is months away,

Click to expand...

Wrong.

The reason why "Romney vs. Obama" doesn't say anything is because Romney and Obama are both the same.

I'd say general election polls at this point are pretty irrevelent.

If Romney wants to make sure he wins Florida, pick Rubio as his VP.

haymarket said:

If Romney wants to make sure he wins Florida, pick Rubio as his VP.

Click to expand...

I disagree. If Romney thinks he can pick up Florida without Rubio, and the polls show that he has a good chance of doing that, I would pick someone from, say, Pennsylvania, and try to add that state's electoral votes. Eastern Pennsylvania might be Liberal, but the middle to western half of the state is very Conservative. I think Mitt's chances there might be pretty good with a running mate from that state.

Romney is definitely the one that will be most difficult for Obama to beat. But Romney definitely has his weaknesses. Romney is a major flip-flopper, he makes John Kerry look like a rod of stability. Personally I like the Old Romney much better than the new one, but it will be interesting to see how he stands up to the attacks once they start, and they haven't started yet. The biggest factor will be the economy. If it continues to improve, Romney is in trouble. If it falters and falls, Obama will be toast. Polls are interesting, but way too early at this point. Florida will definitely be in play for either. Romney cannot guarantee winning Florida and so Rubio is probably a good bet for him. The road to the whitehouse is extremely difficult for the GOP without winning Florida. The Democrats have a much easier road putting together an electoral victory without Florida, but it would mean that they must win Ohio.

danarhea said:

With Mitt Romney the presumed nominee for the GOP, polls are flying, and they are very interesting too. Obama leads Romney nationally, and if it holds up it does not guarantee an Obama victory, for we are talking about the popular vote, not electoral votes. Romney leads Obama in Florida. This could very well be one of those elections where Obama wins the popular vote but loses the electoral vote, and thus Romney becomes president. There are a couple of hitches in that, though. Obama actually leads Romney by one point in North Carolina. What does it all say? Nothing, really, since the election is months away, but right now, I am going to go out on a limb, and predict that, in an election that will be a nail biter, the winner is......

I don't know. LOL.

Discussion?

Click to expand...

Florida is the state where Romney shut down a manufacturing plant and fired everyone.

hazlnut said:

Florida is the state where Romney shut down a manufacturing plant and fired everyone.

Click to expand...

The polls still show Romney having a lead in Florida.

danarhea said:

The polls still show Romney having a lead in Florida.

Click to expand...

obama wont win North Carolina this time either

teamosil said:

Traditionally the challenger has had their highest point in the polls during the primary. During the primary all the press is on the challenger, they are new and exciting, they haven't had time to offend too many people yet, the incumbent isn't campaigning yet really, the challenger hasn't really been heavily attacked yet by the incumbent who is waiting to see who the nominee will be before blowing a ton of money, while not only has the challenger been attacking the incumbent, but he's been backed up by all those competing for the nomination who are doing the same thing. It should be the best possible circumstances for the challenger.

Typically, the challenger will drop by around 10% in the polls relative to the incumbent between the primary and the general. For example, Dole was beating Clinton by 3% during the primary, but he lost by 8%. Kerry was up by 8% during the primary, but lost by 3% in the general.

The times when somebody has done better in the general than they were polling during the primary- eg Reagan- are when something unexpected happened. In that case, the Iranian hostage crisis that was still unfolding during the general. Barring something unexpected, we'll probably see about a 10% drop. If that happens, the final result in the popular vote would be 56.9% Obama, 35.1% Romney (plus the undecideds would presumably follow the same sort of division). That would be the biggest landslide since Reagan won 49 states against Mondale.

Click to expand...

You bring up some very interesting points where the primary challenger's campaign efforts are concerned and the media's fixation on same. This is the #1 reason why the GOP presidential hopefuls and even the GOP itself continues to make the claim and all but demand that President Obama stops campaigning. They ARE scared. They worry that the incumbant will capture the hearts and minds of the People, thus, taking away any leverage the GOP hopefuls have of blowing smoke through the media's inability to "filter the white noise of politics".

In effect, Obama's doing what none of his Democratic predecessors have ever done. By making his presence known either in advance of or on the heels of each major GOP stomp - Iowa, NH, Ohio, SC - he's keeping himself relevent mostly by countering the overall philosophies and ideologies of the GOP overall. No incumbant Democrat President - not even Clinton - went out on the so-called "campaign trail" during the GOP primaries. Then again, why should they?

The way the "system" was designed (or atleast the notion of fair play was intended to be) was that the rivals caucused and the incumbant stayed home in the White House. But not this President! And that pisses the GOP off something fierce! They've tried real hard to give the impression to the American public that he's "campaigning" on the taxpayer's nickle, but how exactly do your prove it one way or the other? And since the President works for the People is it not his job to make public appearances occasionally? Fact is, you can't reconcile him making public appearances with campaigning - not without showing receipts. So, the GOP is stuck on this issue. Frankly, I can't blame Obama for getting out there because he's up against not just 1 or 2 GOP hopefuls, but at one point there were as few as EIGHT registered as GOP primary candidates and as many as TEN GOP hopefuls speaking out against him. The only way to counter such an onslaught is to get out among the public as often as you can! So, I applaud him for doing it because it kept him relevent.

As each GOP candidate falls off the primary landscape, it makes things easier for the incumbant President. Hopefully, the American people are truly listening and filtering through all the BS and :spin: to make well informed decisions in this upcoming election.

teamosil said:

You can't possibly know that until we know which cast member will do Romney. Their Obama is kind of meh in my opinion.

Click to expand...

It is my contention that Obama has more parody value...

danarhea said:

The polls still show Romney having a lead in Florida.

Click to expand...

I'm sure Newt and Rick will do some damage before the primary is done.

samsmart said:

The reason why "Romney vs. Obama" doesn't say anything is because Romney and Obama are both the same.

Click to expand...

Agree one hundred percent.

johnny_rebson said:

Agree one hundred percent.

Click to expand...

Come on guys, you know that Romney wants to keep those Bush tax cuts for the top bracket and Obama doesn't. I thought that was all you cared about. We know that nothing else matters to the T's so what's your problem?

samsmart said:

Wrong.

The reason why "Romney vs. Obama" doesn't say anything is because Romney and Obama are both the same.

Click to expand...

Not exactly.

One comes from privilege and money, the other... not so much.