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The Day After...

A

AlanF

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Wonder what the Wednesday morning bold headlines will read following tomorrow's Iowa Caucus: "Romney Reigns Supreme"; "Push for Paul"; "Perry Prevails"; "Santorum Surprises!"; "Comeback Kid Bachmann"; "Huntsman's Heroes", "Newt's Untouchables", or something else altogether? Who you got?
 
"Romney quietly walks to victory."
 
"With enemies like this, Obama doesn't need friends!"
 
AlanF said:
Wonder what the Wednesday morning bold headlines will read following tomorrow's Iowa Caucus: "Romney Reigns Supreme"; "Push for Paul"; "Perry Prevails"; "Santorum Surprises!"; "Comeback Kid Bachmann"; "Huntsman's Heroes", "Newt's Untouchables", or something else altogether? Who you got?
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Just remember. Mike Huckabee won the last time around.
 
"Bachmann Drops Out"
 
Interesting assessment, Swizz; talk about turning the GOP upside down, Frolicking Dinosaurs, a win by Paul would certainly give President Obama more to laugh about privately as he sizes up the Republican circus, er field; you make a good point, Stillballin75, and a win in Iowa doesn't necessarily equate into advance to the convention and be nominated status; thanks for good laugh this morning @ Chaddelamancha's and Manc Skipper's sharp wit...

It's a make or break day in Iowa...may the best candidate rise to the occasion. Who that is is anyone's guess at the moment.
 
"Race for second in the general election continues"
 
Due to the Iowa Caucus system rather than summary voting by secret ballot, the Iowa Caucus will tell us the choices of the Evangelical rightwing.

The bizarre concept of "winning" in Iowa is that it does not take a majority to win. Only those with 3 hours to spare at that exact time to argue and vote count at all. And then the vast majority of those who do come can vote against a candidate, but that candidate is declared "the winner." Literally, 70% can vote AGAINST a candidate and somehow that is converted to "winning."

Literally, 70+% could openly declare they totally oppose one of the candidates, but the media would declare that person "won."

That is just a couple of many reasons the Caucus system is absurd.
 
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joko104 said:
Due to the Iowa Caucus system rather than summary voting by secret ballot, the Iowa Caucus will tell us the choices of the Evangelical rightwing.

The bizarre concept of "winning" in Iowa is that it does not take a majority to win. Only those with 3 hours to spare at that exact time to argue and vote count at all. And then the vast majority of those who do come can vote against a candidate, but that candidate is declared "the winner." Literally, 70% can vote AGAINST a candidate and somehow that is converted to "winning."

Literally, 70+% could openly declare they totally oppose one of the candidates, but the media would declare that person "won."

That is just a couple of many reasons the Caucus system is absurd.
Click to expand...

The media declares they've won because the votes translate into delegates come time for the convention, and those delegates select the candidate. Therefore even if you only get 30% of the vote, but everyone else gets less, you've won the most delegates from that state. You will never seen over 50% vote for one guy this early in a campaign, there are too many candidates for that, but this is exactly what these early primaries are for as well, taking a state early can demonstrate your campaign has enough energy to attract votes.

Basically, if anyone is winning the Republican nomination race, its the guy who gets the most votes in primaries and therefore the most delegates. I think that's the literally definition of winning, winning states is like winning football games, it doesn't mean you've won the Superbowl, but you've still won that game and its gotten you closer to the ultimate prize.
 
Funny, it seems more democrats are worried or think about Iowa than republicans. Ya'll worried or something?
 
Thanks for sharing your insights, Joko104. @ Wiseone you crack me up with your "wise" remark above--good one, but we'll see in November whose holding the runner up trophy. President Obama is the reigning champion but he's not invincible.
 
Thanks for sharing, Randel. Still trying to figure out how Michele Bachmann lost her footing in Iowa...looks like Paul is well on his way to grabbing the spotlight/headlines tomorrow.
 
AlanF said:
Thanks for sharing, Randel. Still trying to figure out how Michele Bachmann lost her footing in Iowa...looks like Paul is well on his way to grabbing the spotlight/headlines tomorrow.
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just my prediction on how things will go
 
If its anybody but Romney, Iowa will have voted for another Mike Huckabee - a candidate who is going nowhere fast!
 
"Bachmans Miracle Didnt Happen"
"Bachman and Tebow; They Both Fell Hard"
"Obama 2012: Its a Given"
"Romney Won; That Was A Given"
 
jgarden47 said:
If its anybody but Romney, Iowa will have voted for another Mike Huckabee - a candidate who is going nowhere fast!
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that could describe any of this current crop of republican candidates
 
@ TheDemSocialist...thanks for weighing in...poor Tebow and Bachmann losing their magic at the most critical times (the playoffs and primary season)., but who knows, miracles can happen, and at least Tebow can relate to that.
 
Randel, given your lukewarm response to the current GOP field, Who would you least want to secure the GOP presidential nomination?
 
Thanks for sharing your insightful follow up...hat tip

Wiseone said:
The media declares they've won because the votes translate into delegates come time for the convention, and those delegates select the candidate. Therefore even if you only get 30% of the vote, but everyone else gets less, you've won the most delegates from that state. You will never seen over 50% vote for one guy this early in a campaign, there are too many candidates for that, but this is exactly what these early primaries are for as well, taking a state early can demonstrate your campaign has enough energy to attract votes.

Basically, if anyone is winning the Republican nomination race, its the guy who gets the most votes in primaries and therefore the most delegates. I think that's the literally definition of winning, winning states is like winning football games, it doesn't mean you've won the Superbowl, but you've still won that game and its gotten you closer to the ultimate prize.
Click to expand...
 
AlanF said:
Randel, given your lukewarm response to the current GOP field, Who would you least want to secure the GOP presidential nomination?
Click to expand...
honestly, if i were the President, there is no one in this group that would scare me....the way i see it breaking down, is romney, paul, gingrich, and santorum being the top tier from the repub side...i believe perry, bachman, and huntsman won't be much longer in the running...it could well be a brokered convention for the republicans....so long as the economy is moving in the right direction, and unemployment continues coming down, obama wins , my guess, with 52-48% split of the general election.
 
"Romney decisively tops Iowa!" (even though Paul will be either very close or slightly ahead of Romney)
 
No state could possibly be stronger for Paul than Iowa given it's very limited attendance Caucus system and the requirement to be there for hours limits attendance to only the most militant, zealots and others of high time-motivations. Iowa does not have secret ballots than anyone can vote on at the person's convenience. Iowa is ideal for Paul's hardcore self-disenfranchised groupies manner of politics.

Accordingly, Iowa will be his high water mark. If he can't win it, he can't win anywhere.
 
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