IMO, Mbig raises the right issues concerning the need for taking on the nation's long-term fiscal imbalances. The challenge is of a magnitude that spending reductions and revenue increases will be needed.
First and foremost, thanks for the sincere reply.
There was a string in Feedback I cited/linked earlier about too much trolling going on. Perhaps that poster was exaggerating, but there is Plenty of what I call..
'drive-by-posting'/wise-cracks, if not outright flaming.
However, I do not believe Ron Paul is the candidate who would move the nation toward a fiscally sustainable course. In the hypothetical but completely unlikely scenario that Ron Paul would win the Presidency, those who elected him would likely be asking what happened to the bold plans to immediately slash
$1 trillion in spending in Year 1. That the federal deficit remained large, perhaps even grew, would be a source of disillusionment for many who supported him. The question of the hour would be why did Paul's rhetoric and the reality of a Paul Presidency diverge so sharply?
He would perhaps Propose that much of a cut, but as we all realize (and thanks to Ikari for pointing it out in any case), he wouldn't get it.
Of course for those who think we don't need his axe/who don't understand how big the problem is.
A $1 trillion cut would still leave us with... a $400 billion deficit in, say, this fiscal year! About what I consider livable for now.
The 'regulars' in both parties just failed after months, then agreed to 1 trillion over 10 years of 'soft'/technical 'cuts', IOW, 100 billion a year. Inadequate beyond belief.
The answer would lie both in the nature of his proposals and the leadership capacity of the man himself. If one examines his proposals, he would eliminate five Cabinet-level departments immediately. Among those would be the Departments of Education, Commerce, and Interior. If so, what would happen to the Pell Grants on which account for more than a quarter of all grants received by the nation's undergraduate students even as U.S. college degree attainment has flatlined and is falling relative to its OECD peers? With the elimination of the Commerce Department, the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center would disappear. With the elimination of the Interior Department, who would manage the America's national parks? There is no likelihood Congress would accept such cuts, especially in areas that impact public safety. Foreign aid would also disappear, stripping the nation of a non-military foreign policy tool. Medicaid would be block granted to the states, even as no health care reform is pursued. With medical costs rising, that would translate into higher costs for State governments--in effect, a shifting of costs from the federal government to the states--and governors would strongly oppose such a move. No macroeconomic assumptions are provided, so many estimates are more speculative than usual.
as a generally progressive poster here, I don't agree with Most of his programs.
But, I don't think most here grasp how deep a hole we're in.
I have no problem, say Combining some of the Depts that he would cut altogether or, ie, merely Halving them.
His $1 Trillion would more likely come out of congress/any congress with cuts of Maybe 300-400 bil in year one.
Enough to put a true dent in the OUR Greek tragedy of a budget.
Anyone else, we'd be lucky to get an [Insignificant] fraction of that.
Beyond any recession, we have a Structural problem.
Unnoticed during our 4 year crisis, the boomers are starting to retire and go on medicare too.
.....As a result, he would likely relegate himself to vetoing spending bills. However, unlike the current situation where Democrats and Republicans are sharply divided on vision, both Parties would have a common stake in overcoming the Paul vetoes. To do so, given past precedent, each side would get something it wants to bring about the 2/3 votes to override the vetoes and rather than leading to fiscal discipline, the bias would lean toward fiscal excess. That would mean more debt and its associated financial and macroeconomic costs. With foreign rivals exploiting Paul's weakness, national security expenditures could actually wind up higher than they would otherwise be.
Yes, of course there would be stalemate on many issues.
The Proverbial congress/President Zugzwang.
But instead of being gridlocked between deficit increases and larger deficit increases.. the fight would be over how much TO cut, or not.
All said, a Paul Presidency would not mark the beginning of a course toward fiscal sustainability. It would mark more of the same, and perhaps even worse on account of the radical nature of his program (dead on arrival for the most part) and his weak leadership abilities.
I disagree, see the part of my reply immediately above.
In the unlikely case the American people were to elect Paul, it WOULD [finally] be a sign we Were ready for fiscal responsibility and the whole dynamic would change to... how much we were going to cut. Congress would have to defend the Budget from a Trillion... Again leading to perhaps a third of that in yr one.
And as someone mainly liberal here (see economic section and my posts in this one for that matter), I did have the luxury of knowing it 99% wouldn't happen.
It's as much a statement of how screwed we are with any/all of the basically status quo candidates.
And All of the others are either Lying, or more likely, don't know how big a problem we have.