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Poll: Obama Re-Election Odds Roughly 50-50

RDS

RDS

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I am hoping he is into a second term of office.

(WASHINGTON) — Entering 2012, President Barack Obama's re-election prospects are essentially a 50-50 proposition, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. It found that most Americans say the president deserves to be voted out of office even though they have concerns about the Republican alternatives.

Read more: AP-GfK Poll: Obama Re-Election Odds Roughly 50-50 - TIME
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It is going to depend on who the GOP chooses as their candidate. At present, Gingrich is their darling and that would virtually assure Obama a second term. Gingrich cannot pull all of the GOP vote, much less the independent and disgruntled Democrat vote.

Romney is their best bet for winning, but certainly not the best candidate for the very conservative factions. They would likely pick up more independents and disgruntled Dems than the number of very conservative GOP voters they would lose.

If they paired Paul with socially conservative VP, they might form a ticket that would appeal to the fiscally conservatives, social conservatives and opponents of big government among independents. I would love to see a Paul/Huntsman ticket, but I know I am dreaming.
 
I agree. Gingrich has no chance of winning against Obama.

I too hope Ron Paul makes it out of GOP nomination. He'll have a very good chance against Obama and definitely have my vote.
 
PoliticalTravlr said:
I agree. Gingrich has no chance of winning against Obama.

I too hope Ron Paul makes it out of GOP nomination. He'll have a very good chance against Obama and definitely have my vote.
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Paul is too drastic. He's funny and smart, but not smart enough to realize we can't stick our heads in the sand and survive. He would cut off our noses to spite our faces.
 
coolwalker said:
Paul is too drastic. He's funny and smart, but not smart enough to realize we can't stick our heads in the sand and survive. He would cut off our noses to spite our faces.
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I disagree with the notion that we need to mingle in every country's business militarily for our survival.
 
coolwalker said:
...and that came up because...?
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I assume you're not supportive of Ron Paul because of his stand on international policies (at least that's what i thought about your comment). and I think his international policies (if he carries them over to action) are far better than what we're doing today.
 
This is how I view the candidates in descending order from best to worst. General GOP candidate > Obama > The neighborhood feral cat with a few extra chromosomes > Ron Paul.
 
digsbe said:
This is how I view the candidates in descending order from best to worst. General GOP candidate > Obama > The neighborhood feral cat with a few extra chromosomes > Ron Paul.
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Wow. Such a difference.

Mine would be Ron Paul, anyone other than Obama and the current GOP candidates, Obama, Current GOP Candidates.
 
With the economy like this, if the GOP had been able to put forwards a serious candidate, Obama might have been in real trouble. But as it stands, I think he's pretty much a lock.
 
digsbe said:
This is how I view the candidates in descending order from best to worst. General GOP candidate > Obama > The neighborhood feral cat with a few extra chromosomes > Ron Paul.
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If the GOP had the option to run "generic Republican candidate" they'd most likely win. Unfortunately for them, actual Republican candidates poll far, far, worse than the hypothetical generic Republican.
 
teamosil said:
If the GOP had the option to run "generic Republican candidate" they'd most likely win. Unfortunately for them, actual Republican candidates poll far, far, worse than the hypothetical generic Republican.
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I agree completely
 
upsideguy said:
He is pretty much running unopposed in 2012. It is his to lose.
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I think this is the likely explanation:

Republican A-teamers aren’t running because they don’t think they can win

"The heavy hitters know Obama’s popular. He’s certainly not invincible, but he’s going to be much more difficult to beat in 2012 than they’re letting on to their donors. That’ll come as a huge surprise to a Republican base that takes it on faith that everybody harbors the same irrational hatred of him that they do."
 
“Mr. Obama decided to attack us,” Chávez said. “Now you want to win votes by attacking Venezuela. Don’t be irresponsible. You are a clown, a clown. Leave us in peace … Go after your votes by fulfilling that which you promised your people.”

“Focus on governing your country, which you’ve turned into a disaster,” Chávez said, according to The Guardian.
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Hugo Chavez: Obama?s a ?clown? president - Mackenzie Weinger - POLITICO.com
 
I believe in the end Romney will most likely be the nominee...and in the end turnout will determine whether he or obama wins.
 
lpast said:
I believe in the end Romney will most likely be the nominee...and in the end turnout will determine whether he or obama wins.
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Turnout is always crucial. I suspect another key factor will be what happens to Ron Paul and if he goes third party. If he does, that will not help Romney.
 
RDS said:
I am hoping he is into a second term of office.
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If they nominate Romney or Gingrich in the primaries or Palin decided to enter and actually win the primaries Obama will definitely get a second term.
 
haymarket said:
Turnout is always crucial. I suspect another key factor will be what happens to Ron Paul and if he goes third party. If he does, that will not help Romney.
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Dreams of vengeance for Gore. He will not pull 5%, nor do so in an important state.
 
I would say 50/50 with a viable Republican candidate....with the current lot, it is much higher. I would put his chances of relection at about 65-70% against Romney.....about 90-95% against Gingrich.
 
ecofarm said:
Dreams of vengeance for Gore. He will not pull 5%, nor do so in an important state.
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You are probably right. Libertarians cannot draw flies in a presidential election. However, a few points in a crucial state could tip it.
 
disneydude said:
I would say 50/50 with a viable Republican candidate....with the current lot, it is much higher. I would put his chances of relection at about 65-70% against Romney.....about 90-95% against Gingrich.
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Wellllllllllllllllllllllll...Obama's first run brought people out of the woodwork who had never before voted and they said they only voted because he was running...that was the black vote or 14% of the US population. Considering that most of them feel they got him elected once he will stay there, so probably around 20% will stay home and not vote...the students who always go with the youngest of the candidates are now pretty disillusioned as they see what things cost "in the real world", the GOP will never vote for him and the white vote he garnered from some held-over slave shame will not vote for him. His chances are not that great unless Romney has his zipper open during one of the debates. Gingrich will get les and less of the polling in his favor...the problem will be Ron Paul who could screw this country royally by going 3rd Party.
 
coolwalker said:
Wellllllllllllllllllllllll...Obama's first run brought people out of the woodwork who had never before voted and they said they only voted because he was running...that was the black vote or 14% of the US population. Considering that most of them feel they got him elected once he will stay there, so probably around 20% will stay home and not vote...the students who always go with the youngest of the candidates are now pretty disillusioned as they see what things cost "in the real world", the GOP will never vote for him and the white vote he garnered from some held-over slave shame will not vote for him. His chances are not that great unless Romney has his zipper open during one of the debates. Gingrich will get les and less of the polling in his favor...the problem will be Ron Paul who could screw this country royally by going 3rd Party.
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Your understanding of what various groups are thinking about this stuff appears to just be stuff you heard on Fox. Fox isn't real.
 
teamosil said:
Your understanding of what various groups are thinking about this stuff appears to just be stuff you heard on Fox. Fox isn't real.
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No that's your assumption and we all know what that does...this is what I have seen with my own eyes and heard during the previous election when the country took it's downward turn. Hopefully my assessment of the situation is correct because I would like to see all Americans get a better shake, even the disillusioned liberal faction.
 
coolwalker said:
No that's your assumption and we all know what that does...this is what I have seen with my own eyes and heard during the previous election when the country took it's downward turn. Hopefully my assessment of the situation is correct because I would like to see all Americans get a better shake, even the disillusioned liberal faction.
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That's the thing. The country didn't take a downward turn, it took an upward turn. You'd know that if you were getting your information from legit sources. For example, here is the graph for job losses:

tumblr_kxfgdhngiP1qz4udmo1_500.jpg

Since the end of that graph we've actually gained jobs every month except one. The stock market shows the same thing. It's up 80% now from the bottom which was just a few weeks after Obama took office. We've gotten out of both Bush wars. The world respects us again. Etc.
 
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