Newt 25%, Paul 18%, Romney 16% - Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll.

Iowa Poll: Newt Gingrich leads three-candidate race in Iowa | Iowa Caucuses

Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich has carved out a clear lead in what’s become a three-candidate race in Iowa, according to The Des Moines Register’s new Iowa Poll.

Texas Rep. Ron Paul has risen into second place, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has slid to third with just over a month before the Iowa caucuses kick off voting in the presidential nominating process.

Gingrich has support from 25 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers, Paul is at 18 percent and Romney at 16 percent.

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Iowa
11/27 - 11/30
401 likely Republican caucus-goers
+/-4.9%




Second choice for President:

Public Policy Polling

Newt: 27%
Ron Paul: 16%
Romney: 13%
Bachmann: 9%
Perry: 6%
Rick Santorum: 4%
Gary: 1%
Jon: 1%

jasonxe said:

Public Policy Polling

Newt: 27%
Ron Paul: 16%
Romney: 13%
Bachmann: 9%
Perry: 6%
Rick Santorum: 4%
Gary: 1%
Jon: 1%

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ekk sorry, read it wrong.

Newt: 27%
Ron Paul: 18%
Romney: 16%
Bachmann: 13%
Perry: 9%
Rick Santorum: 6%
Jon: 4%
Gary: 1%

Wow, i gotta stop staying up so late.

Because of the peculiar caucus system rather than an election, Iowa will be Ron Paul's highwater mark. The contest in Iowa is who can get people to spend 3 to 4 hours "voting." That excludes most young, lower income, parents of young children and people who work nightshifts. Instead, it shifts voting heavily towards the elderly and towards more committed/militant Republicans.

Iowa may surprise people. Potentially Bachman could win it again and Fox is promoting her hard lately. Paul could win it. So could Gingrich and Romney. Perry might be a surprise comeback.

I would think the only poll of much value would be to poll people who actually went to the Republican caucus in 2008. The number of people who say they will go versus who actually will spend the 3+ hours doing so will vary greatly.

Iowa is pretty much irrelevant. The real focus will be on New Hampshire and the other states with primaries in Jan/Feb.

disneydude said:

Iowa is pretty much irrelevant. The real focus will be on New Hampshire and the other states with primaries in Jan/Feb.

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Iowa has the ability to put a candidate off the map back on it for a while.

New Hampshire and South Carolina will greatly thin the pack. Florida then likely will narrow it to two being real potentials.

Iowa could sink Gingrich with a bad showing and it could breathe life into Bachman, Paul and potentially even Perry. New Hampshire could sink Romney as a must-win.


This could become a matter of last-man standing is the nominee.

Bruce Willis is the media in relation to the Republicans for president?


[video]http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=you+tube+last+man+standing+shootout&mid=45984421D5CE4C6C0D1A45984421D5CE4C6C0D1A&view=detail&FORM=VIRE3[/video]

The hope is that Paul could win Iowa or at the very least second. Winning Iowa will set the stage for NH to topple Romney lead over there. It will also get a lot of news coverage "Can so & so beat Romney in NH!" Making it a two person race to an extent. So winning Iowa is a important rolling boulder to taking it all. In the past it probably wouldn't but the media seems to be able to inflate a candidate this election.

Whoever wins in Iowa will at least be around for a bit of the ride. However, New Hampshire is going to be the bigger issue .The reason I say that is that Romney, the favorite, is unlikely to win in Iowa however if he takes New Hampshire then it becomes a pretty clear path with the winner of Iowa likely being in for a bit and Romney having a strong inside track.

I think there's two potential interesting things that could happen though...

1. Someone other than Newt or Romney win Iowa
2. Someone other than Newt or Romney win New Hampshire
3. Newt wins Iowa or Romney wins New Hampshire (or both), but a third candidate places 2nd in both states

Then things could get a bit interesting as we move deeper into the primary season. I'd like to see us have 3 people still in at least by Super Tuesday just to keep it interesting.

Almost anything could happen in Iowa if you really understand how it works. Obama personally worked Iowa like crazy, going house to house with advance teams quietly deciding who were the gossips of the towns.

All that matters is who shows up and sticks around for the caucus. Plus if your candidate is bumped out then a person's 2nd choice gets the vote. It is there that the local heavy weights (ordinary people) really become a factor. In a strange way, obtaining people making you their 2nd choice can be more important than first choice.

That's why they so much talk about 'the ground game" in Iowa. It is ideal for a hardworking (or rich) candidate to come up way from behind and an easy place for a front runner in polls to get trashed.

Things don't really starting locking in until S. Carolina.

The other aspect is that as long as the media keeps giving mass free publicity, there isn't much reason for anyone to drop out.

Let's go Newt!

Four more years!

joko104 said:

Iowa has the ability to put a candidate off the map back on it for a while.

New Hampshire and South Carolina will greatly thin the pack. Florida then likely will narrow it to two being real potentials.

Iowa could sink Gingrich with a bad showing and it could breathe life into Bachman, Paul and potentially even Perry. New Hampshire could sink Romney as a must-win.


This could become a matter of last-man standing is the nominee.

Bruce Willis is the media in relation to the Republicans for president?


[video]http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=you+tube+last+man+standing+shootout&mid=45984421D5CE4C6C0D1A45984421D5CE4C6C0D1A&view=detail&FORM=VIRE3[/video]

Click to expand...

disneydude said:

Iowa is pretty much irrelevant. The real focus will be on New Hampshire and the other states with primaries in Jan/Feb.

Click to expand...

Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina.... each nice states and nice places to visit in their own right (well some more than others), but singularly and collectively politically irrelevant to Republicans.

We all know the only primary that matters is the Rupert Murdoch primary....

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