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Election 2012: Generic Republican 48%, Obama 42%

In which state will they vote in next November where The Democratic Party lists Obama as their nominee and the Republican Party bears the name of GENERIC as their nominee?
 
haymarket said:
In which state will they vote in next November where The Democratic Party lists Obama as their nominee and the Republican Party bears the name of GENERIC as their nominee?
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lol

to me this is showing republicans for the most part will get behind what ever candidate it is!
 
MrMindSpeaker said:
lol

to me this is showing republicans for the most part will get behind what ever candidate it is!
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That isn't the problem. Of course, Republicans are going to get behind whatever sorry candidate that they run. However, you don't win elections with just Republicans and the list of potential Republican candidates are unlikely to appeal to the moderates/independents that actually control the election.
 
MrMindSpeaker said:
lol

to me this is showing republicans for the most part will get behind what ever candidate it is!
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I have no doubt that the vast majority of republicans will indeed do what you predict. And without independents, they still lose. Which GOP hopeful that has any chance other than the one you all in the right are united against - Mitt Romney - has a snowballs chance of winning the majority of Independents?
 
disneydude said:
That isn't the problem. Of course, Republicans are going to get behind whatever sorry candidate that they run. However, you don't win elections with just Republicans and the list of potential Republican candidates are unlikely to appeal to the moderates/independents that actually control the election.
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haymarket said:
I have no doubt that the vast majority of republicans will indeed do what you predict. And without independents, they still lose. Which GOP hopeful that has any chance other than the one you all in the right are united against - Mitt Romney - has a snowballs chance of winning the majority of Independents?
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i live around a large group of independents like my self!
some actually voted for Obama and not 1 person i know is going to vote for him again.
so if we represent only half of the independents i think Obama is a ONE TERM PRESIDENT!
 
MrMindSpeaker said:
lol

to me this is showing republicans for the most part will get behind what ever candidate it is!
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There is nothing in generic polling to indicate that. You are reading far more into the poll than what is there.
 
Redress said:
There is nothing in generic polling to indicate that. You are reading far more into the poll than what is there.
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REALLY?
the poll is would you pick Obama or a republican candidate and there is nothing to show that?
 
MrMindSpeaker said:
REALLY?
the poll is would you pick Obama or a republican candidate and there is nothing to show that?
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Correct, there is nothing beyond that. It does not mean any republican candidate, but Obama or a republican candidate.
 
MrMindSpeaker said:
i live around a large group of independents like my self!
some actually voted for Obama and not 1 person i know is going to vote for him again.
so if we represent only half of the independents i think Obama is a ONE TERM PRESIDENT!
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Sorry.....but given the choice of Obama v. Gingrich.....Independents will flock to Obama in a landslide.
The reality is...the only GOP candidate that is electable is the very one that they are having a hard time stomaching.
 
disneydude said:
Sorry.....but given the choice of Obama v. Gingrich.....Independents will flock to Obama in a landslide.
The reality is...the only GOP candidate that is electable is the very one that they are having a hard time stomaching.
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well forgive me if i actually believe the independents i speak with over you!

we will vote for fred flinstone over obama!

i think you dems also forget about the thousands that dont follow politics but still exercise their right to vote. in a bad economy they always vote against the current president and this year it looks like the republicans will see their votes as well.

dont be upset fellas, you could always have obama step down and run hilary or just wait till next election lol
 
MrMindSpeaker said:
well forgive me if i actually believe the independents i speak with over you!

we will vote for fred flinstone over obama!

i think you dems also forget about the thousands that dont follow politics but still exercise their right to vote. in a bad economy they always vote against the current president and this year it looks like the republicans will see their votes as well.

dont be upset fellas, you could always have obama step down and run hilary or just wait till next election lol
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If you seriously believe that, then I hope that you and your "friends" support Gingrich in his efforts.
Let me give you a little clue....Fred Flintstone is a far superior candidate that Newt "the scumbag" Gingrich. Fred doesn't have the morals of a sewer rat that permeate from Newt.

But don't be upset you and your "fellas"...you could have always chosen a little bit better candidate from the sorry lot that you've been dealt.
 
MrMindSpeaker said:
REALLY?
the poll is would you pick Obama or a republican candidate and there is nothing to show that?
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One can't assume that just because respondents expressed support for a generic Party candidate, that they would be inclined to support the specific candidate who is nominated. Head-to-head polling is an indicator of how individual candidates would fare at a given point in time.

Of course, as the election is still nearly a year away, today's polls likely have almost no utility except perhaps for candidates' fundraising efforts. Too much, especially the state of the economy, can change between now and then. If the unemployment rate is on a steady decline or the public widely believes improvement is imminent, President Obama will likely win. If, however, the unemployment rate remains stuck somewhere between 8.5% and 9.0% with no real movement, it will be very close and odds could tilt somewhat to the Republican (assuming a credible candidate is nominated). If the unemployment rate is rising, the President likely would be defeated except if a very weak candidate e.g. a Michele Bachmann were nominated.
 
MrMindSpeaker said:
i live around a large group of independents like my self!
some actually voted for Obama and not 1 person i know is going to vote for him again.
so if we represent only half of the independents i think Obama is a ONE TERM PRESIDENT!
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Your claim hangs on a very doubtful and tenuous thread: that you and your friends truly represent even half of independents nation wide.
 
MrMindSpeaker said:
a generic republican is still winning according to

Election 2012: Generic Presidential Ballot - Rasmussen Reports™

i think this is going to stay like this and get even worse for Obama when the GOP pick a candidate!
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President Obama vs. Republican Candidates

General Election: Romney vs. Obama
*************************************
RCP Average (11/8 - 11/22) - Obama +1.5
Obama (D) 45.9
Romney (R) 44.4

General Election: Gingrich vs. Obama
**************************************
RCP Average (11/8 - 11/29) - Obama +5.7
Obama (D) 48.7
Gingrich (R) 43.0

General Election: Cain vs. Obama
***************************************
RCP Average (11/8 - 11/27) - Obama +10.2
Obama (D) 49.6
Cain (R) 39.4

General Election: Perry vs. Obama
***************************************
RCP Average (11/5 - 11/14) - Obama +9.6
Obama (D) 49.8
Perry (R) 40.2

General Election: Paul vs. Obama
****************************************
RCP Average (10/28 - 11/13) - Obama +7.7
Obama (D) 46.7
Paul (R) 39.0

General Election: Bachmann vs. Obama
*****************************************
RCP Average (11/8 - 11/16) - Obama +14.0
Obama (D) 49.7
Bachmann (R) 35.7

General Election: Huntsman vs. Obama
******************************************
RCP Average (8/29 - 10/21) - Obama +8.7
Obama (D) 45.7
Huntsman (R) 37.0

General Election: Santorum vs. Obama
*******************************************
Rasmussen Reports (10/2 - 10/3) - Obama +11
Obama (D) 45
Santorum (R) 34

RealClearPolitics - President Obama vs. Republican Candidates
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With all due respect, the OP has based this thread on the results of the Rasmussen Reports - perhaps the one and only poll that shows Republicans leading.

This "RCP Average" is the combined average of all the major polls conducted - in this case during the month of November, 2011.

When the current GOP candidates are polled "one-on-one" versus the current president, the "RCP Averages" place Obama consistently in the lead - by a range of 1.5 to 14.0 points.

General Election: Romney vs. Obama - Obama +1.5
General Election: Gingrich vs. Obama - Obama +5.7
General Election: Cain vs. Obama - Obama +10.2
General Election: Perry vs. Obama - Obama +9.6
General Election: Paul vs. Obama - Obama +7.7
General Election: Bachmann vs. Obama - Obama +14.0
General Election: Huntsman vs. Obama - Obama +8.7
General Election: Santorum vs. Obama - Obama +11

Romney appears to be the only GOP presidential candidate with a realistic chance of defeating Obama in the 2012 General Election, but his polls appear to have peaked at about 25% - meaning that 75% of conservatives prefer to support someone positioned farther to the "right."
 
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haymarket said:
Your claim hangs on a very doubtful and tenuous thread: that you and your friends truly represent even half of independents nation wide.
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im willing to bet at least half of the independent votes go to the GOP candidate!
 
jgarden47 said:
Romney appears to be the only GOP presidential candidate with a realistic chance of defeating Obama in the 2012 General Election
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Look at more than the current numbers. Over the past month Newt has had steady and continual gain in regards to polling vs Obama where as Obama has been showing a distinct consistent downward trend save for one extremely short lived spike. Newt's been the only candidate to do this during his month of being "hot". I think its far to early to suggest that he's not viable when talking about polls. Simply looking at a snap shot and not looking and analyzing trends is basically looking at the polls through a pinhole.
 
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Zyphlin said:
Look at more than the current numbers. Over the past month Newt has had steady and continual gain in regards to polling vs Obama where as Obama has been showing a distinct consistent downward trend. Newt's been the only candidate to do this during his month of being "hot". I think its far to early to suggest that he's not viable when talking about polls. Simply looking at a snap shot and not looking and analyzing trends is basically looking at the polls through a pinhole.
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agreed

also I believe the economy will be that deciding factor that will give any candidate running against obama a boost that might not of been there if this was a different election.

i cant recall and president ever getting re-elected with these UI numbers and a stagnate economy like this one.
 
Zyphlin said:
Look at more than the current numbers. Over the past month Newt has had steady and continual gain in regards to polling vs Obama where as Obama has been showing a distinct consistent downward trend save for one extremely short lived spike. Newt's been the only candidate to do this during his month of being "hot". I think its far to early to suggest that he's not viable when talking about polls. Simply looking at a snap shot and not looking and analyzing trends is basically looking at the polls through a pinhole.
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I think we'll have a better idea in a few weeks. What it looks like to me is that Gingrich's ratings soared as Cain flamed out, but he's been relatively flat (at about -5 to -8 vs. Obama) for the last two weeks as he's settled into the top not-Romney role. He had a little blip in the last few days, but it's too soon to say if it's a trend.
 
He's trended steadliy upwards for a month. At the very least it is soon enough to say its at least a short term trend. Its too early to say if he'll be able to sustain it...or if he'll flame out.
 
I don't think the person the the GOP chooses can win. The GOP candidates that are capable of winning the presidential election, are not going to get the nomination. I personally back the current president and would vote for his second term if who I believe is gonna get the GOP nomination wins it. The only 2 people on the stage now that my vote would go to (note that i can't even vote) would be Huntsman or Paul and maybe , just maybe Romney. The rest are far too conservative and will not help the country at all. On the same note, we need to pay closer attention to our Congressional elections in 2012. We the people were displeased with the first Congress of this administration so we elected a do-nothing Congress that was even worse. The president is the mere head of government, let's elect decent legislators for the other 600+ officers in charge of this country.
 
Zyphlin said:
He's trended steadliy upwards for a month. At the very least it is soon enough to say its at least a short term trend. Its too early to say if he'll be able to sustain it...or if he'll flame out.
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He has moved up, but it's been anything but steady. He rocketed up for two weeks and then leveled off -- though still trending upward -- over the last few weeks.
 
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