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Yep, that's another of the big reasons why Rasmussen comes in the way it does. I disagree with those who try to claim there's some inherent ATTEMPT for bias, but rather its simply polling a different set of information. And, again, I think Rasmussen's method is actually more viable than some of the others in certain political climates, I just don't think that climate is what we have now and those times are going to be reduced the farther and farther we get into the 21st century.
I love looking at the RCP averages and its what I tend to use. I also think looking at the numbers alone as some kind of static thing isn't all that useful. For example, the RCP average currently has it 48.7 to 43 in favor of Obama. A solid 5+ point lead. Looking at only that, it would seem that based ONLY on polling data that Obama should be able to handle Gingrich.
On the flip side though, polls aren't static and looking at them singularly in a static way is akin of attempting to watch the 30 yard line only during a football game and expect to make the most accurate guess of how it may end.
At the beginning of November RCP had the difference at 13% points in favor of Obama. By Mid November that lead had dropped to 8% points. During that month long span Gingrich began at a average polling score of 36.7% and Obama was at 50.3%. At the end of that span Gingrich has trended upwards consistently the entire month. On the flip side, Obama took a DEEP drop, spiked back up, and then began to solidly steadily decline in the polls.
The Gingrich rise in the RCP average and the Obama slide coincides with Gingrich's emergence as a potential legitimate option for the Republican nomination that has been occurring over the month of November (wherein he hit his peak of 23.8%). What's most interesting though is to look at this compared to the other three flavor of the month front runners...
First was Bachmann's best showing compared to the other candidates was in July, where she had the largest amount of support of this primary season (Peaking at 14%). During this time period she had a definitely increase in terms of her going against Obama (16.8% different to 12.4% by month end), however unlike in the Newt Example, it was mostly from picking up true undecideds than switch over votes, as Obama's average remained pretty smooth, falling only by .5% by the end of the month.
Second is Perry. Perry's month to shine was September, reaching the most support of any candidate all primary season with 31.8% of primary votes going for him at his height. Yet, when polled against Obama, his time in September was a roller coaster. It began with roughly a 6.6% difference between the two. It then quickly took a steep decline for Obama and increase for Perry, with Perry running within 2% of Obama and both of them sort of flat lining. After that quick, hot, and fast start however the rest of his month at the top went backwards with Obama trending up and Perry being the one trending down. By the end of the month Perry was down 7.6%, one percent worse than at the start. Perry managed to get closest of any of the flavor of the month candidates, but he also began to peter out far quicker.
Third, you have Cain. His time in the spotlight came from Mid-October to Mid-November, peaking at 26% of republican support. Cain began that time 8 points down from Obama. By the end, he was 8.7 points away. His graph spiked up slightly, flatlined, spiked up slightly, flatlined again. Meanwhile, Obama’s just steadily rose by a small amount.
Of the three “flavor of the month” candidates, the only one so far whose month period of being the “hot” front-runner in the not-Romney race whose managed to consistently increase his polling against Obama while Obama’s decreased against him throughout that entire time span has been Gingrich. Bachmann, went up while Obama stayed flat. Perry shot up only to shoot right back down. Cain climbed up and down while Obama just slowly increased. Newt trended up and Obama trended down.
Does that mean Newt is absolutely going to win this thing? Of course not. However, what I do hope is it highlights is that there’s a LOT more to what you can discern from polls than simply looking at a snap shot of what the poll number is at this very moment. What it tells me is that, compared to the other three, Newt with some momentum appears to have the best shot of successfully not just propping himself up but actually winning mild Obama supporters over to his side. Bachmann and Cain largely benefited from pure undecideds giving them their support as evidenced by the little movement in Obama’s support during their time at the top of the heap. Perry LOOKED like he could win support away from Obama, but that died extremely quickly. Gingrich has shown a month of sustained gains through Obama losses, which is something going in his favor I think.
Summary for those going tl;dr
Bachmann, Perry, Cain, and Gingrich each have had a roughly month long period during the Primary season where they were the highest polling “Not-Romney” candidate in the field. During that month stretch, when looking at their polls in a theoretical election vs Obama, Gingrich was the only one whose numbers went up as Obama’s went down. Bachmann’s and Cain’s went up during their time, but Obama remained consistent. Perry shot up, then shot right back down with Obama doing the inverse. This seems to suggest that there’s a possibility that Newt has a better ability to win over weak Obama supporters better than the other three candidates and thus could potentially be a bit more dangerous in a general than any of them.
I love looking at the RCP averages and its what I tend to use. I also think looking at the numbers alone as some kind of static thing isn't all that useful. For example, the RCP average currently has it 48.7 to 43 in favor of Obama. A solid 5+ point lead. Looking at only that, it would seem that based ONLY on polling data that Obama should be able to handle Gingrich.
On the flip side though, polls aren't static and looking at them singularly in a static way is akin of attempting to watch the 30 yard line only during a football game and expect to make the most accurate guess of how it may end.
At the beginning of November RCP had the difference at 13% points in favor of Obama. By Mid November that lead had dropped to 8% points. During that month long span Gingrich began at a average polling score of 36.7% and Obama was at 50.3%. At the end of that span Gingrich has trended upwards consistently the entire month. On the flip side, Obama took a DEEP drop, spiked back up, and then began to solidly steadily decline in the polls.
The Gingrich rise in the RCP average and the Obama slide coincides with Gingrich's emergence as a potential legitimate option for the Republican nomination that has been occurring over the month of November (wherein he hit his peak of 23.8%). What's most interesting though is to look at this compared to the other three flavor of the month front runners...
First was Bachmann's best showing compared to the other candidates was in July, where she had the largest amount of support of this primary season (Peaking at 14%). During this time period she had a definitely increase in terms of her going against Obama (16.8% different to 12.4% by month end), however unlike in the Newt Example, it was mostly from picking up true undecideds than switch over votes, as Obama's average remained pretty smooth, falling only by .5% by the end of the month.
Second is Perry. Perry's month to shine was September, reaching the most support of any candidate all primary season with 31.8% of primary votes going for him at his height. Yet, when polled against Obama, his time in September was a roller coaster. It began with roughly a 6.6% difference between the two. It then quickly took a steep decline for Obama and increase for Perry, with Perry running within 2% of Obama and both of them sort of flat lining. After that quick, hot, and fast start however the rest of his month at the top went backwards with Obama trending up and Perry being the one trending down. By the end of the month Perry was down 7.6%, one percent worse than at the start. Perry managed to get closest of any of the flavor of the month candidates, but he also began to peter out far quicker.
Third, you have Cain. His time in the spotlight came from Mid-October to Mid-November, peaking at 26% of republican support. Cain began that time 8 points down from Obama. By the end, he was 8.7 points away. His graph spiked up slightly, flatlined, spiked up slightly, flatlined again. Meanwhile, Obama’s just steadily rose by a small amount.
Of the three “flavor of the month” candidates, the only one so far whose month period of being the “hot” front-runner in the not-Romney race whose managed to consistently increase his polling against Obama while Obama’s decreased against him throughout that entire time span has been Gingrich. Bachmann, went up while Obama stayed flat. Perry shot up only to shoot right back down. Cain climbed up and down while Obama just slowly increased. Newt trended up and Obama trended down.
Does that mean Newt is absolutely going to win this thing? Of course not. However, what I do hope is it highlights is that there’s a LOT more to what you can discern from polls than simply looking at a snap shot of what the poll number is at this very moment. What it tells me is that, compared to the other three, Newt with some momentum appears to have the best shot of successfully not just propping himself up but actually winning mild Obama supporters over to his side. Bachmann and Cain largely benefited from pure undecideds giving them their support as evidenced by the little movement in Obama’s support during their time at the top of the heap. Perry LOOKED like he could win support away from Obama, but that died extremely quickly. Gingrich has shown a month of sustained gains through Obama losses, which is something going in his favor I think.
Summary for those going tl;dr
Bachmann, Perry, Cain, and Gingrich each have had a roughly month long period during the Primary season where they were the highest polling “Not-Romney” candidate in the field. During that month stretch, when looking at their polls in a theoretical election vs Obama, Gingrich was the only one whose numbers went up as Obama’s went down. Bachmann’s and Cain’s went up during their time, but Obama remained consistent. Perry shot up, then shot right back down with Obama doing the inverse. This seems to suggest that there’s a possibility that Newt has a better ability to win over weak Obama supporters better than the other three candidates and thus could potentially be a bit more dangerous in a general than any of them.
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