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New poll is out, Romney down to 15%!! Newt is surging on Intrade

C

Camlon

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CBS just released a new poll. The biggest surprise is that it looks like Gingrich is taking voters from Romney as well. I'm getting somewhat confident that he can win the nomination, because there are simply too many not-Romney voters.

CBS poll
Cain - 18
Romney - 15
Gingrich - 15
Perry - 8
Paul - 5

And Newt is surging on Intrade. In the last 15 minutes, he went up from 9-5 to 12 - 13. Which is good for all of us who have invested in Newt.
https://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=654836

Question is, Can he keep up the momentum?
 
I think the Republican Party is finding itself in the same position as the Democratic Party was in 1972. In 1972 the Democratic Party base moved far to the left and as a result nominated a candidate that was so far out of the mainstream he lost by a landslide. Today, the Republican Party base has moved so far to the right that they could nominate a candidate that will be so far outside the mainstream they lose the election by a landslide in a year that they ought to easily win given the state of the economy.

The Republican's have 2 candidates that can win in 2021, Romney and Huntsman. Why they don't seem to get this, I don't know.
 
Camlon said:
CBS just released a new poll. The biggest surprise is that it looks like Gingrich is taking voters from Romney as well. I'm getting somewhat confident that he can win the nomination, because there are simply too many not-Romney voters.

CBS poll
Cain - 18
Romney - 15
Gingrich - 15
Perry - 8
Paul - 5

And Newt is surging on Intrade. In the last 15 minutes, he went up from 9-5 to 12 - 13. Which is good for all of us who have invested in Newt.
https://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=654836

Question is, Can he keep up the momentum?
Click to expand...
Well that's bad news for the GOP. The only Republican candidate who stands a chance at beating Obama is Romney.
 
Obama would slaughter Newt.
 
There was me thinking that a "Newt" was a unit of severe drunkenness. ("He's pissed as a newt!") Quite why an aquatic reptile should gain such a reputation, I don't know.
 
Swizz said:
Obama would slaughter Newt.
Click to expand...
Obama beats Gingrich by an average of 11 percentage points. Not many in the GOP race fare worse. At this point, I just don't see anybody beating Obama. The only one with a chance is Romney and that's only because he draws votes from the middle. The far right can't stand him because he leans towards the center.
 
High tide, low tide...this is going to keep going up and down until Election Day. Newt is surging today, but tomorrow it will be someone else, until the media decides to delve into their past, then it will again be someone new surging ahead. Not until the last day will we know if Obama will head back to Chi-Town.
 
Sheik Yerbuti said:
Obama beats Gingrich by an average of 11 percentage points. Not many in the GOP race fare worse. At this point, I just don't see anybody beating Obama. The only one with a chance is Romney and that's only because he draws votes from the middle. The far right can't stand him because he leans towards the center.
Click to expand...
You know that's not the reason. They don't stand him, because he is an extreme flip-flopper. They would have backed him if he really believed what he was saying. His "opinions" are fine.

And I don't think Romney has a chance either. The only one I really do think has a chance if Conservatives support him, is Huntsman.
 
Swizz said:
Obama would slaughter Newt.
Click to expand...


Then Obama would have no problem doing Lincoln/Douglas style debates.

Seven debates, 3 hours each, no moderator......no teleprompter.

Obama tries to channel Lincoln so...
 
coolwalker said:
High tide, low tide...this is going to keep going up and down until Election Day. Newt is surging today, but tomorrow it will be someone else, until the media decides to delve into their past, then it will again be someone new surging ahead. Not until the last day will we know if Obama will head back to Chi-Town.
Click to expand...


Does that include college transcipts?
 
SouthernDemocrat said:
I think the Republican Party is finding itself in the same position as the Democratic Party was in 1972. In 1972 the Democratic Party base moved far to the left and as a result nominated a candidate that was so far out of the mainstream he lost by a landslide. Today, the Republican Party base has moved so far to the right that they could nominate a candidate that will be so far outside the mainstream they lose the election by a landslide in a year that they ought to easily win given the state of the economy.

The Republican's have 2 candidates that can win in 2021, Romney and Huntsman. Why they don't seem to get this, I don't know.
Click to expand...

A lot of Republicans are convinced that beating Obama will be "so easy, a caveman could do it".

They'll rally around Romney in the end though. But they won't be happy about it.
 
CedarBear said:
Then Obama would have no problem doing Lincoln/Douglas style debates.

Seven debates, 3 hours each, no moderator......no teleprompter.

Obama tries to channel Lincoln so...
Click to expand...

I agree, he would have no problem.

Having said that, Newt will not be the nominee so it will never happen.
 
Newt is the latest not-Romney to surge in the polls, and may not be the last. To his credit, he's a more serious not-Romney than the last one (i.e. he was Speaker of the House rather than a pizza guy.) Newt's problem is that he's a gasbag, he's personally dislikable, he runs an undisciplined campaign that makes lots of mistakes, and the Republican establishment loathes him. I think it will be very difficult for him to win the Republican nomination, and he would be a disaster for Republicans in the general election if he did win the primary.
 
Camlon said:
You know that's not the reason. They don't stand him, because he is an extreme flip-flopper. They would have backed him if he really believed what he was saying. His "opinions" are fine.

And I don't think Romney has a chance either. The only one I really do think has a chance if Conservatives support him, is Huntsman.
Click to expand...

You really think the right would support a guy who pushed for universal health care in his state and gets possitive ratings from pro-choice groups? You're delirious.
 
Camlon said:
You know that's not the reason. They don't stand him, because he is an extreme flip-flopper. They would have backed him if he really believed what he was saying. His "opinions" are fine.

And I don't think Romney has a chance either. The only one I really do think has a chance if Conservatives support him, is Huntsman.
Click to expand...


I agree with you. I like Huntsman, I believe he can actually take down Obama in the general election. I think his main problem in GOP primaries is that he is not "angry" enough for the right. He impress me in the debate the other night how he answer the China question. Those other clowns were just talking out their a**es.
 
Kandahar said:
Newt is the latest not-Romney to surge in the polls, and may not be the last. To his credit, he's a more serious not-Romney than the last one (i.e. he was Speaker of the House rather than a pizza guy.) Newt's problem is that he's a gasbag, he's personally dislikable, he runs an undisciplined campaign that makes lots of mistakes, and the Republican establishment loathes him. I think it will be very difficult for him to win the Republican nomination, and he would be a disaster for Republicans in the general election if he did win the primary.
Click to expand...

Well, that and he has so many skeletons in the closet it makes graveyards jealous.
 
The problem is that the GOP faithful want a right wing talk radio host to be their candidate -- not someone who can win the general election ... or run the country effectively.
 
Manc Skipper said:
There was me thinking that a "Newt" was a unit of severe drunkenness. ("He's pissed as a newt!") Quite why an aquatic reptile should gain such a reputation, I don't know.
Click to expand...

Thats OK, I thought it was a measure of tension, but someone told me that was a "newton".
 
CedarBear said:
Then Obama would have no problem doing Lincoln/Douglas style debates.

Seven debates, 3 hours each, no moderator......no teleprompter.

Obama tries to channel Lincoln so...
Click to expand...

I believe Newt wrote a book about Lincoln, so he hight hold his own.
 
Hatuey said:
You really think the right would support a guy who pushed for universal health care in his state and gets possitive ratings from pro-choice groups? You're delirious.
Click to expand...

I suspect that Cain might get some positive ratings from pro-choice groups also.
 
CedarBear said:
Then Obama would have no problem doing Lincoln/Douglas style debates.

Seven debates, 3 hours each, no moderator......no teleprompter.

Obama tries to channel Lincoln so...
Click to expand...

Speaking as a progressive Democrat who some think is closer to Leon Trotsky, I would love to see far more debates than the two or three we usually get. I would like to see at least five and would be happy to see how the first one would go without a moderator. As for three hours, it was hard enough to get people to sit in a theater to watch LORD OF THE RINGS or TITANIC at that length given the short attention span of many Americans. I would be happy with two hours.
 
You liberals don't get it. The fact that so many of you like Romney and Huntsman is the very reason why neither will win the nomination. Both are barely conservative when you take into consideration the totality of their policies. With that said, any republican will beat BO, even these guys since the repubs will go to the polls in huge numbers.....many holding their noses closed when they vote.
 
imagep said:
I suspect that Cain might get some positive ratings from pro-choice groups also.
Click to expand...

Herman Cain - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Cain argued that he was a conservative, noting that he opposed the legality of abortion except when the mother's life is threatened.[59] Cain finished second in the primary with 26.2% of the vote, ahead of Collins, who won 20.6%, but because Isakson won 53.2% of the vote, Isakson was able to avoid a runoff.[60]
Click to expand...

Doubt it.
 
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