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Herman Cain, The Practical Joke No One Is Getting

Kandahar said:
He really doesn't. He has rarely spent time in Iowa, yet has devoted considerable effort to his book tour. And his state organizations? Last I heard he had a team of five people in Iowa.
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His strategy is to focus on southern states, while picking up as many early states as he has a shot at. His feeling is that he is going to have a hard time in alot of northern states, but if he can pick up the southern states plus a few key northern states, he wins. The first big test for him is not Iowa, it's Florida.
 
Redress said:
His strategy is to focus on southern states, while picking up as many early states as he has a shot at. His feeling is that he is going to have a hard time in alot of northern states, but if he can pick up the southern states plus a few key northern states, he wins. The first big test for him is not Iowa, it's Florida.
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Yeah, Rudy Giuliani tried that strategy and he crashed and burned. And Giuliani was a much stronger and more serious candidate than Herman Cain is. But even if this "Florida strategy" had some merit, Cain isn't actively pursuing it. He isn't seriously campaigning in Florida or anywhere else.
 
Kandahar said:
Yeah, Rudy Giuliani tried that strategy and he crashed and burned. And Giuliani was a much stronger and more serious candidate than Herman Cain is. But even if this "Florida strategy" had some merit, Cain isn't actively pursuing it. He isn't seriously campaigning in Florida or anywhere else.
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You know he was in Florida just Wednesday, right? Cain leads right now in Iowa, South Carolina, and is only 4 back from Romney in Florida. Realize that he did that with not alot of campaign donations having come in. He is just now getting the funding to really ramp things up. If he pulls off those three states, who beats him for the nomination?
 
Redress said:
You know he was in Florida just Wednesday, right?
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Not for any serious campaigning. You simply can't do the kind of retail politicking in Florida that is expected of candidates in Iowa and New Hampshire. The state is just too big. And it's not like his campaign has the money for a big media blitz.

Cain leads right now in Iowa, South Carolina, and is only 4 back from Romney in Florida.
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Numbers which mean nothing, as the vast majority of voters either haven't started paying attention yet or haven't really made a firm decision. The betting odds of Cain being the nominee now stand at 5.4% on InTrade, which sounds about right to me.

Realize that he did that with not alot of campaign donations having come in. He is just now getting the funding to really ramp things up.
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It's too late for that. When has a candidate ever started "really ramping things up" in November before the primaries and gone on to win his party's nomination? I can't think of a single example in the modern primary era.

If he pulls off those three states, who beats him for the nomination?
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No one. The flaw is in the "if."
 
So it's too late for campaigning, but no one is paying attention yet. That makes sense....

Realize, I expect Cain to lose the primary. What I am not doing is dismissing him out of hand. The whole primary system is getting weird with the first state on Jan 3, and so much compression in the schedule.
 
I predict Mitt Romney will easily win the nomination, because 1) it's his turn to be the nominee, and 2) there aren't any other serious alternatives to him. If Romney somehow manages to lose, it will most likely be to one of the candidates who has at least some ties to the establishment...Rick Perry or Newt Gingrich.

Herman Cain is, at best, the fourth most likely person to win the Republican nomination. Look at the bucket of previous Republican nominees - John McCain, George W. Bush, Bob Dole, George H.W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, Jerry Ford. Does anyone seriously think that a guy who has never held elective office, is best known for selling pizzas, and had almost zero name recognition prior to this campaign really fits the profile of a candidate who is going to end up in that "Republican nominee" bucket?
 
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Redress said:
So it's too late for campaigning, but no one is paying attention yet. That makes sense
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It's not necessarily too late to campaign, but it's too late to start ramping things up to build a campaign organization. Although it's a moot point, since Herman Cain has shown little interest in doing either.

Realize, I expect Cain to lose the primary. What I am not doing is dismissing him out of hand. The whole primary system is getting weird with the first state on Jan 3, and so much compression in the schedule.
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The primary season is more dispersed and back-loaded than it has been in many election cycles.
 
Kandahar said:
I predict Mitt Romney will easily win the nomination, because 1) it's his turn to be the nominee, and 2) there aren't any other serious alternatives to him. If Romney somehow manages to lose, it will most likely be to one of the candidates who has at least some ties to the establishment...Rick Perry or Newt Gingrich.

Herman Cain is, at best, the fourth most likely person to win the Republican nomination. Look at the bucket of previous Republican nominees - John McCain, George W. Bush, Bob Dole, George H.W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, Jerry Ford. Does anyone seriously think that a guy who has never held elective office, is best known for selling pizzas, and had almost zero name recognition prior to this campaign really fits the profile of a candidate who is going to end up in that "Republican nominee" bucket?
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Oh for christ sake. Barring significant changes, there are only two people with a chance to win the nominations, and Cain is one of them. Gingrich is the only other candidate with double digit support in the polls, and what state is he going to win?
 
Redress said:
Oh for christ sake. Barring significant changes, there are only two people with a chance to win the nominations, and Cain is one of them. Gingrich is the only other candidate with double digit support in the polls, and what state is he going to win?
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I'll vote for Gingrich if he has any shot at winning. I'd rather have Gingrich than any of them. Of course, I voted for Fred Thompson last time, and he didn't get anywhere.
 
poweRob said:
Man.. the bit about him quoting "a great poet" which turns out to be the theme song for a Pokemon movie was effin' hilarious.
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Quotes from other movies, or video games, is the approach taken of a successful talk show host. Herman Cain makes an entertaining conservative talk show host. If Herman Cain becomes president, what are his policies going to be?

Was that a slip, that a woman has a right to choose, or a revelation of his true beliefs? Herman Cain lobbied against the minimum wage increase, against the lowering of the legal limit for blood alcohol level, both issues popular with restaurant owners. Being humorous is a valid goal for a talk-show host. Is Herman Cain's first priority to be humorous through conservative ideologies?


Is Herman Cain getting alot of his advise from Ginni Thomas, wife of Clarence Thomas, SCOTUS?

Herman Cain Sits Down With...Clarence Thomas' Wife | Mother Jones





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Kandahar said:
I predict Mitt Romney will easily win the nomination, because 1) it's his turn to be the nominee, and 2) there aren't any other serious alternatives to him. If Romney somehow manages to lose, it will most likely be to one of the candidates who has at least some ties to the establishment...Rick Perry or Newt Gingrich.

Herman Cain is, at best, the fourth most likely person to win the Republican nomination. Look at the bucket of previous Republican nominees - John McCain, George W. Bush, Bob Dole, George H.W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, Jerry Ford. Does anyone seriously think that a guy who has never held elective office, is best known for selling pizzas, and had almost zero name recognition prior to this campaign really fits the profile of a candidate who is going to end up in that "Republican nominee" bucket?
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Gingrich may very well be a better choice
 
If romney or gingrich win...one thing will be crystal clear...the teaparty has lost and does not have the support even in the republican ranks they think they have...now someone has to tell the majority in congress to tell grover norquist to sit down and shut the hell up
 
While I dearly hope Cain wins the GOP nomination because it would make Goldwater and 64 look like a close election, he actually has no chance at all of doing this. He exposes his shortcomings and flaws more and more with each passing newscycle.

But having said that I must take my hat off and give hims his propers for one terrific line that he delivers in support of his 9-9-9 tax scheme. He caps off his plug for the plan by stating that if 10% is good enough for God, then 9% should be good enough for the government. Clever and catchy. Also crazy. But a great campaign line just the same.
 
haymarket said:
While I dearly hope Cain wins the GOP nomination because it would make Goldwater and 64 look like a close election, he actually has no chance at all of doing this. He exposes his shortcomings and flaws more and more with each passing newscycle.

But having said that I must take my hat off and give hims his propers for one terrific line that he delivers in support of his 9-9-9 tax scheme. He caps off his plug for the plan by stating that if 10% is good enough for God, then 9% should be good enough for the government. Clever and catchy. Also crazy. But a great campaign line just the same.
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I doubt very much cain can win
 
lpast said:
I doubt very much cain can win
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Oh, I agree 100%. But the momentary thought of it and the nationwide Democratic landslide from the top to the bottom of the ticket that it would deliver is a happy thought just the same.
 
lpast said:
I doubt very much cain can win
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Oh, I agree 100%. But the momentary thought of it and the nationwide Democratic landslide from the top to the bottom of the ticket that it would deliver is a happy thought just the same.
 
haymarket said:
Oh, I agree 100%. But the momentary thought of it and the nationwide Democratic landslide from the top to the bottom of the ticket that it would deliver is a happy thought just the same.
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If he is going to lose by a landslide, then he must be a horrible campaigner.

But if he is a horrible campaigner, then he will never win the nomination.
 
Redress said:
His strategy is to focus on southern states, while picking up as many early states as he has a shot at. His feeling is that he is going to have a hard time in alot of northern states, but if he can pick up the southern states plus a few key northern states, he wins. The first big test for him is not Iowa, it's Florida.
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One thing for sure. Cain does not have a chance in Illinois. Ron Paul just won the straw poll there with 52% of the vote. :)
 
Redress said:
Oh for christ sake. Barring significant changes, there are only two people with a chance to win the nominations, and Cain is one of them.
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It's far more likely that Cain collapses and most of his support goes back to Perry, than that Cain wins the nomination. "Barring significant changes"? Why would we do a silly thing like that?

Gingrich is the only other candidate with double digit support in the polls, and what state is he going to win?
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The states that Cain is polling well in. And I'm not saying that it's very likely that Gingrich will win either, just that it's more likely that he'll win than Cain. At least he's actually, you know, running a campaign.
 
I think Cain has a significantly greater chance of winning the nomination than Perry does. But it's far too early to guess who the nominee will be.
 
Camlon said:
Well, I don't think anyone or Cain though he could win when he joined the Republican race.

The question is if he changed his mind after he started rising in polls. It seems like he didn't.
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I honestly don't think he believes he has a chance which would explain why he is hocking his book more than he is campaigning. Kind of, making hay while the sun still shines.
 
Camlon said:
If he is going to lose by a landslide, then he must be a horrible campaigner.

But if he is a horrible campaigner, then he will never win the nomination.
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Two very very different groups of the electorate. To win the primary nomination, he needs to appeal to the right. To win the election, he needs to both hold his base and expand to the middle. And he would find that nearly impossible. Thus the reason why an extremist can win the GOP nomination but get creamed in the general election.
 
nota bene said:
I think Cain has a significantly greater chance of winning the nomination than Perry does. But it's far too early to guess who the nominee will be.
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I don't think so for the simple reason that Cain has almost no ground game. He has very little actual organization to get out the vote, raise funds, and bring on volunteers. That's not so important at this stage, but it becomes very important when the primaries get underway. It's why Harry Reid was reelected despite the fact that he was pretty unpopular.
 
The guy on Fox News with the open mouth stare as Cain tries to explain his abortion position was hilarious.
 
Redress said:
Oh for christ sake. Barring significant changes, there are only two people with a chance to win the nominations, and Cain is one of them.
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Cain can't win because the Republican Party doesn't support him and because he has no organization to speak of. And the reason he has no organization is because he is not a serious candidate for President. You can't build a building without a foundation and you can't run a successful campaign for President without a good organization.

I and others believe he entered the race as a way to promote himself, but never as becoming President. His polls are nothing more than a house of cards that will quickly collapse.

The best candidate the Republicans have today is clearly Jon Huntsman, but so far they don't recognize that fact. He would be Obama's toughest opponent, in my opinion.
 
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