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Rasmussen: Cain 43, Obama 41

cpwill

cpwill

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That's still a huge toss-up.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Cain attracting 43% support, while Obama earns 41%. Given such a matchup, eight percent (8%) prefer some other candidate, and another eight percent (8%) are undecided.

...Last week, Cain trailed Obama by three. The week before, he was behind by five. “Cain now has the chance to make the case for why he should be the challenger to Mitt Romney,” says Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports. “Many others have auditioned for the role and fallen flat, and it remains to be seen whether Cain’s fate will be similar.”...
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meanwhile....


the numbers are reversed with Romney, with Obama winning 43-41
 
Its rasmussen, so we can probably calibrate it to reflect reality by swapping 5 or 6% from Cain to Obama.
 
cpwill said:
That's still a huge toss-up.
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We haven't even actually had a primary or caucus yet either. Wasn't Giuliani the front runner at this point 4 years ago? Yeah, that worked out for him...
 
megaprogman said:
Its rasmussen, so we can probably calibrate it to reflect reality by swapping 5 or 6% from Cain to Obama.
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Unless Obama was leading, then Rasmussen would be hitting the bullseye. Right?
 
apdst said:
Unless Obama was leading, then Rasmussen would be hitting the bullseye. Right?
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Nope, they would be still using the same models.
 
apdst said:
Unless Obama was leading, then Rasmussen would be hitting the bullseye. Right?
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There's no question Rasmussen polling has had a Republican lean in the past. I believe they polled 4.9% toward the Republicans on average compared to actual results for the Senate last year.
 
All the more reason Republicans should support Cain.


Go Cain/PAlin!
 
neocon1225 said:
Meanwhile the RCP average has Obama up 6.7% vs. Cain while only averaging up .7% against Romney.
RealClearPolitics - President Obama vs. Republican Candidates
It doesn't really matter though, polls at this point are pretty pointless.
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That is only because they use old data, when people didn't know who Cain was.

Rasmussen didn't hit in 2010. However they did hit in 2008, RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama Also, same time last year, McCain polled 5% below for Obama.
 
Camlon said:
Rasmussen didn't hit in 2010. However they did hit in 2008, RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama Also, same time last year, McCain polled 5% below for Obama.
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I believe Rasmussen started showing a significant Republican bias over the last two years just because it uses robocalls. Republicans are much more likely to answer a robopoll because they were more excited about voting and are more likely to own a landline than being cell-phone only. Rasmussen and other pollsters didn't adjust and all but one of the robocallers had a significant Republican lean last election.
 
Anagram said:
I believe Rasmussen started showing a significant Republican bias over the last two years just because it uses robocalls. Republicans are much more likely to answer a robopoll because they were more excited about voting and are more likely to own a landline than being cell-phone only. Rasmussen and other pollsters didn't adjust and all but one of the robocallers had a significant Republican lean last election.
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Even if it is true, Cain still fares better than the other candidates AND Cain gets a higher percentage of independent voters. So, for today, Cain is the front runner.
 
ksu_aviator said:
Even if it is true, Cain still fares better than the other candidates AND Cain gets a higher percentage of independent voters. So, for today, Cain is the front runner.
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I wasn't denying that. I'm just saying Rasmussen uses outdated methodology to conduct it polls which gives it significant Republican bias.
 
disneydude said:
All the more reason Republicans should support Cain.
Go Cain/PAlin!
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Good idea. I am considering it. I would not vote for Romney unless the choice was Romney (Obama-lite) or the Marxist. Then, for me it is anybody but the Marxist.
 
Anagram said:
I wasn't denying that. I'm just saying Rasmussen uses outdated methodology to conduct it polls which gives it significant Republican bias.
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What outdated methodology is this? And so are you saying that Rasmussen has a positive GOP bias?
 
nota bene said:
What outdated methodology is this? And so are you saying that Rasmussen has a positive GOP bias?
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Not adjusting to the growing percentage of cell-phone only households. Rasmussen and all other robo-pollsters but one showed a Republican bias in 2010. They were on average, nearly 5% skewed toward the GOP candidate last year, a bias larger than almost all other polling firms.
 
Anagram said:
Not adjusting to the growing percentage of cell-phone only households. Rasmussen and all other robo-pollsters but one showed a Republican bias in 2010. They were on average, nearly 5% skewed toward the GOP candidate last year, a bias larger than almost all other polling firms.
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You mean, compared to the pollsters that openly oversample Democrats?
 
Reg said:
You mean, compared to the pollsters that openly oversample Democrats?
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Can you provide examples of this from 2010? All I'm saying is that Rasmussen had a large Republican bias in 2010. Only Mason-Dixon had a Democratic one, by .4%. These are just facts, numbers that are indisputable. And since it has absolutely nothing to do with ideology, I'm wondering why some people get so defensive over polling firms.
 
Misterveritis said:
Good idea. I am considering it. I would not vote for Romney unless the choice was Romney (Obama-lite) or the Marxist. Then, for me it is anybody but the Marxist.
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I encourage you to get everyone you know to support Cain. Go out and campaign for him. Let's help Cain get the GOP nod over Romney!
 
Why nominate Romney? His positions on major issues are indistinguisbable from Obama's.

What are elections for if there are no choices?
 
Reg said:
Why nominate Romney? His positions on major issues are indistinguisbable from Obama's.

What are elections for if there are no choices?
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That all depends on how much you value having a POTUS with an "R" after his name. Either way, the Republicans get a republican in office, its just one would have a 'D' after his name.
 
upsideguy said:
That all depends on how much you value having a POTUS with an "R" after his name. Either way, the Republicans get a republican in office, its just one would have a 'D' after his name.
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Obama is landslidable. Why settle for Romney?
 
Reg said:
Obama is landslidable. Why settle for Romney?
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Do you have anything at all to back that up? There have been no polls showing anything close to a Republican landslide, and there is no historical precedent of a president with Obama's current approval being easily beaten for re-election.
 
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