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Cain Leads in Latest SC Primary Poll

ksu_aviator

ksu_aviator

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The interesting thing about this poll (other than it is a 24% increase in support over night) is that a large chunk of Cain's support is coming from former Perry supporters, Democrats and Independents.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2011/InsiderAdvantage_SC_1017.pdf

So it is Cain at 32%, Romney at 16.4% and Perry at 12.4%. Again, the bulk of Cain's support is coming from former Perry supporters, Democrats and Independents.

I think Cain may actually be building real momentum. He's getting the largest percentage of independents and democrats by far.
 
the Dem/Indy thing is interesting - my question is how soft is it; how fast will they fold.
 
cpwill said:
the Dem/Indy thing is interesting - my question is how soft is it; how fast will they fold.
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That is the question isn't it? Is Cain a flash in the pan/flavor of the week or does his message resonate with voters?
 
someone eventually has to emerge as the not-romney. it looks like it's gonna be Cain or Perry; i think Cain's future is dependent on Perry continuing to fail.
 
cpwill said:
someone eventually has to emerge as the not-romney. it looks like it's gonna be Cain or Perry; i think Cain's future is dependent on Perry continuing to fail.
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I really think Perry has to look and perform well at tomorrow's debate. His poll numbers have to come up and he has to have something positive or he is going to fade down with the Bachmann's and Paul's and Gingrich's.
 
ksu_aviator said:
The interesting thing about this poll (other than it is a 24% increase in support over night) is that a large chunk of Cain's support is coming from former Perry supporters, Democrats and Independents.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2011/InsiderAdvantage_SC_1017.pdf

So it is Cain at 32%, Romney at 16.4% and Perry at 12.4%. Again, the bulk of Cain's support is coming from former Perry supporters, Democrats and Independents.

I think Cain may actually be building real momentum. He's getting the largest percentage of independents and democrats by far.
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It's all soft support in my opinion. I fully expect at some point Perry will pull his head out of his rear and get his act together. As soon as Perry starts getting it together the Cain bubble will deflate and it will be back to the bottom of the polls for Cain.
 
cpwill said:
someone eventually has to emerge as the not-romney. it looks like it's gonna be Cain or Perry; i think Cain's future is dependent on Perry continuing to fail.
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I think Perry might actually have a better shot. I don't believe its physically possible for Perry to put up worse debate performances than the last few. Cain will probably start to fall when all the other candidates begin to focus their attacks on him, like with Perry on immigration and the mandated vaccine. What gives Perry the advantage I think is money and campaign strategy. Perry has millions of dollars while Cain raised about 3 million last quarter and is for some reason spending it all in states like Tennessee. But who knows, maybe Cain will be able to whether the attacks, and maybe Tennessee will turn out to be the tipping point state for the nomination.
 
Anagram said:
I think Perry might actually have a better shot. I don't believe its physically possible for Perry to put up worse debate performances than the last few. Cain will probably start to fall when all the other candidates begin to focus their attacks on him, like with Perry on immigration and the mandated vaccine. What gives Perry the advantage I think is money and campaign strategy. Perry has millions of dollars while Cain raised about 3 million last quarter and is for some reason spending it all in states like Tennessee. But who knows, maybe Cain will be able to whether the attacks, and maybe Tennessee will turn out to be the tipping point state for the nomination.
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That's why I don't think A)Cain is really running for President, he really wants to sell books and get a Fox News spot and B)he can't win. Rick Perry is flush with cash, he has a built in base of donors, and has an organization on the ground in Iowa. Herman Cain skipped off the campaign trail to go on a book tour, has very little money, and has zero organization on the ground anywhere. Cain has no position policies other than 999 which won't stand up to anything other a superficial investigation. While Perry has yet to articulate very many policies he at least has a decade as Governor with a pretty good record on spending and job creation in a large state to stand on, while Herman Cain ran a second rate pizza joint, which is good but doesn't lend itself very well to running for President.
 
Rasmussen has similar results in the hypothetical election:

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Cain attracting 43% support, while Obama earns 41%. Given such a matchup, eight percent (8%) prefer some other candidate, and another eight percent (8%) are undecided.

...

Cain attracts only 72% of the Republican vote, while the president earns 82% support from voters in his party. However, Cain leads by 19 among those not affiliated with either major party.

2012 Presidential Matchups - Rasmussen Reports™
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neocon1225 said:
That's why I don't think A)Cain is really running for President, he really wants to sell books and get a Fox News spot and B)he can't win. Rick Perry is flush with cash, he has a built in base of donors, and has an organization on the ground in Iowa. Herman Cain skipped off the campaign trail to go on a book tour, has very little money, and has zero organization on the ground anywhere. Cain has no position policies other than 999 which won't stand up to anything other a superficial investigation. While Perry has yet to articulate very many policies he at least has a decade as Governor with a pretty good record on spending and job creation in a large state to stand on, while Herman Cain ran a second rate pizza joint, which is good but doesn't lend itself very well to running for President.
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at various points in time I've agreed with everything you've said above; but I think you may be underestimating the siren call of the belief that maybe he can make it. What if Cain didn't start out running for President, but now thinks he has a shot and so he is?
 
cpwill said:
at various points in time I've agreed with everything you've said above; but I think you may be underestimating the siren call of the belief that maybe he can make it. What if Cain didn't start out running for President, but now thinks he has a shot and so he is?
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He still has to tackle the fact that A) he waited until mid- to late October to attempt to build an organization in Iowa with limited funds B) the 999 plan is complete and utter garbage that is being attacked by the right and left in unison and C) he has no real positions on anything at all. No foreign policy plans or discernible policies. He hasn't articulated any real economic or jobs plan. I feel like he throws s**t against the wall and hopes it stick, and if it doesn't he gets hyper defensive or claims it was a "joke." Well I happen to think Herman Cain is a joke and so is his 999 plan.
 
Cain may lead, but there's not one GOP candidate I've seen so far that won't get slaughtered by Obama.

This feels like 2004 and 2008 all over again -- GWB and BHO were shoe-ins and the opposition party chose sacrificial lambs that had no chance.

Had the GOP House actually done something proactive, maybe even out of character, to bring jobs back, maybe that would have helped bring in a viable Presidential candidate.

But, they didn't. And now the media power of the sitting President will be all she wrote.
 
Ontologuy said:
Cain may lead, but there's not one GOP candidate I've seen so far that won't get slaughtered by Obama.

This feels like 2004 and 2008 all over again -- GWB and BHO were shoe-ins and the opposition party chose sacrificial lambs that had no chance.

Had the GOP House actually done something proactive, maybe even out of character, to bring jobs back, maybe that would have helped bring in a viable Presidential candidate.

But, they didn't. And now the media power of the sitting President will be all she wrote.
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I think Romney would win against Obama, and I also think if Huntsman could resurrect his campaign he would win by a good margin against Obama.
 
neocon1225 said:
I think Romney would win against Obama, and I also think if Huntsman could resurrect his campaign he would win by a good margin against Obama.
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I would like to think you're right, as the way Obama would win in a landslide could set him up with a supermajority in Congress .. and I can't begin to describe how bad that would be for America.

But so far the GOP House is getting a "do nothing" label, and rightly so. An intollerant voting public fuming from lack of jobs will make the pendulum swing all that much wider.
 
neocon1225 said:
While Perry has yet to articulate very many policies he at least has a decade as Governor with a pretty good record on spending and job creation in a large state to stand on, while Herman Cain ran a second rate pizza joint, which is good but doesn't lend itself very well to running for President.
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Perry is quickly losing pace and face with concervative voters. The guy has problems on immigration and he got nailed early on for abusing his executive authority (whether true or not). He is not polished enough to hang in a debate and yet he keeps picking fights with the one guy who is polished and waxes the floor with him every time. Did you see the way Romney put his arm on top of Perry's shoulder during the debate? Romney just toys with him and he just comes back for more, every time looking bad. His numbers are falling every week.

Gingrich on the other hand continues to shine in the debates. I don't like some of the things he has done in the past (Example CPAC speech this year "Green Conservatism", commercial with Nancy Pelosi), but this guy is no dummy and has been in the game for a long time. That teaser he threw out at the end of the debate about 7, three hour long debates with Obama in the style of Lincoln and Douglas, may get some attention. I think he is setting himself up as the one who will actually make Obama look like a fool if they debated. (He's not my first choice)

I don't think Cain is a flash in the pan but he is new to this game. I suspect most of the money he raised came in after his Florida straw poll victory and has been coming in steady since. He probably is behind in organizing on the ground with paid staffers, but he's going to get unpaid volunteers now that he's rising. He will probably have to play serious catchup to organize beyound SC and FL but he it may not matter if the teaparty eventually migrate to him as the anti-Romny candidate.
 
neocon1225 said:
I think Romney would win against Obama, and I also think if Huntsman could resurrect his campaign he would win by a good margin against Obama.
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They'd both get killed by Obama. There is no difference betwen either of them and Obama on what matters.

Obama wanted to run against Huntsman.
 
J Adams said:
Perry is quickly losing pace and face with concervative voters. The guy has problems on immigration and he got nailed early on for abusing his executive authority (whether true or not). He is not polished enough to hang in a debate and yet he keeps picking fights with the one guy who is polished and waxes the floor with him every time. Did you see the way Romney put his arm on top of Perry's shoulder during the debate? Romney just toys with him and he just comes back for more, every time looking bad. His numbers are falling every week.

Gingrich on the other hand continues to shine in the debates. I don't like some of the things he has done in the past (Example CPAC speech this year "Green Conservatism", commercial with Nancy Pelosi), but this guy is no dummy and has been in the game for a long time. That teaser he threw out at the end of the debate about 7, three hour long debates with Obama in the style of Lincoln and Douglas, may get some attention. I think he is setting himself up as the one who will actually make Obama look like a fool if they debated. (He's not my first choice)

I don't think Cain is a flash in the pan but he is new to this game. I suspect most of the money he raised came in after his Florida straw poll victory and has been coming in steady since. He probably is behind in organizing on the ground with paid staffers, but he's going to get unpaid volunteers now that he's rising. He will probably have to play serious catchup to organize beyound SC and FL but he it may not matter if the teaparty eventually migrate to him as the anti-Romny candidate.
Click to expand...

I'm playing to take Romney out, first and foremost, then when see where the chips fall on the real conservatives.
 
J Adams said:
Perry is quickly losing pace and face with concervative voters. The guy has problems on immigration and he got nailed early on for abusing his executive authority (whether true or not). He is not polished enough to hang in a debate and yet he keeps picking fights with the one guy who is polished and waxes the floor with him every time. Did you see the way Romney put his arm on top of Perry's shoulder during the debate? Romney just toys with him and he just comes back for more, every time looking bad. His numbers are falling every week.

Gingrich on the other hand continues to shine in the debates. I don't like some of the things he has done in the past (Example CPAC speech this year "Green Conservatism", commercial with Nancy Pelosi), but this guy is no dummy and has been in the game for a long time. That teaser he threw out at the end of the debate about 7, three hour long debates with Obama in the style of Lincoln and Douglas, may get some attention. I think he is setting himself up as the one who will actually make Obama look like a fool if they debated. (He's not my first choice)

I don't think Cain is a flash in the pan but he is new to this game. I suspect most of the money he raised came in after his Florida straw poll victory and has been coming in steady since. He probably is behind in organizing on the ground with paid staffers, but he's going to get unpaid volunteers now that he's rising. He will probably have to play serious catchup to organize beyound SC and FL but he it may not matter if the teaparty eventually migrate to him as the anti-Romny candidate.
Click to expand...
Perry's got the money, and as he keeps releasing policies I think he'll regain ground. Herman Cain's 999 "plan" will ultimately be his undoing.
 
J Adams said:
Perry is quickly losing pace and face with concervative voters. The guy has problems on immigration and he got nailed early on for abusing his executive authority (whether true or not). He is not polished enough to hang in a debate and yet he keeps picking fights with the one guy who is polished and waxes the floor with him every time. Did you see the way Romney put his arm on top of Perry's shoulder during the debate? Romney just toys with him and he just comes back for more, every time looking bad. His numbers are falling every week.

Gingrich on the other hand continues to shine in the debates. I don't like some of the things he has done in the past (Example CPAC speech this year "Green Conservatism", commercial with Nancy Pelosi), but this guy is no dummy and has been in the game for a long time. That teaser he threw out at the end of the debate about 7, three hour long debates with Obama in the style of Lincoln and Douglas, may get some attention. I think he is setting himself up as the one who will actually make Obama look like a fool if they debated. (He's not my first choice)

I don't think Cain is a flash in the pan but he is new to this game. I suspect most of the money he raised came in after his Florida straw poll victory and has been coming in steady since. He probably is behind in organizing on the ground with paid staffers, but he's going to get unpaid volunteers now that he's rising. He will probably have to play serious catchup to organize beyound SC and FL but he it may not matter if the teaparty eventually migrate to him as the anti-Romny candidate.
Click to expand...

Pretty solid analysis. I take issue with the Gingrich making a fool of Obama remark - but the rest is pretty much right on.
 
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