The Next Osama?

kansaswhig · 09-12-09, 02:06 PM

Great article at FP:

Quote:

Eight years after the September 11 attacks -- years that have seen many precious lives lost and an overwhelming expenditure of effort and money -- the battle against al Qaeda still continues, and it is still not clear whether America is winning or not. As I give talks on this topic to everyone from undergraduate students to counterterrorism practitioners to community groups, I am invariably asked whether there is a winner in the war on terrorism. Questioners are almost always dissatisfied with my answer: "It depends."

But this is the only answer I can give, because the terms of the question are out of date. If you're asking whether the United States has defeated al Qaeda, you also have to ask: Which al Qaeda are we talking about? The senior leaders operating somewhere in the tribal areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan? The al Qaeda franchises around the world, most notably in Iraq, Algeria, and Yemen? Or the global ideological following, sparked by al Qaeda, calling itself al Qaeda, but not technically affiliated with al Qaeda? If you ask about winning, you have to also ask whether winning means killing the organization or just handicapping it. Does it refer to destroying al Qaeda's military capabilities, or to mitigating al Qaeda's ability to win hearts and minds around the world?

As these questions suggest, over the last eight years al Qaeda has undergone a metamorphosis. It has transformed from a global terrorist group into a global terrorist movement, one with its own founding fathers, well-codified doctrine, substantial and accessible corpus of literature, and deep bench of young, bright, and ambitious commanders. Attacks still matter to them, but in an era of increased counterterrorism pressure, al Qaeda is beginning to realize that it is a lot more effective at being a movement, an ideology, even a worldview. It is starting to see that terrorism is only one of many tools in its arsenal and that changing minds matters more than changing policies.

In other words, the al Qaeda that we are fighting in 2009 is not the same al Qaeda that we went to war with in 2001. Unfortunately, however, our own mindset has remained mostly unchanged.

Much of al Qaeda's evolution over the last eight years is embodied in one man, Sheikh Abu Yahya al-Libi, director of al Qaeda's jurisprudence committee and a likely successor to Osama bin Laden. Young, media-savvy, ideologically extreme, and masterful at justifying savage acts of terrorism with esoteric religious arguments, Abu Yahya offers the global al Qaeda movement everything that its old guard cannot.

Full Article

Arcana XV · 09-12-09, 02:46 PM

Very good article. Looks like AlQaeda is following in the footsteps of other terrorist organisations in the past that also realized that violence alone will not get them what they want. Eventually, they all reduce the violence and increase the ideology speeches that do win more minds, especially the young and highly educated, around to the cause.

kansaswhig · 09-12-09, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arcana XV

Eventually, they all reduce the violence and increase the ideology speeches that do win more minds, especially the young and highly educated, around to the cause.

The Wahhabism movement is alive and well. The Maddrassas have been built; probably more to follow. More importantly, they target audience is breeding at an astounding rate all over the world...especially Europe.

bhkad · 09-17-09, 08:30 PM

Thread bump.

other · 09-17-09, 09:05 PM

And what happens when there's a fanatical ideology at war with you, and you are unable or unwilling to acknowledge it?

There is real danger because of the dispersion of wahhabism, linked through western communication networks to what is essentially a central group of propagandists. Internal law enforcement agencies need to be on the alert, and we need to remain on the offensive. This is a war, unfortunately, where it is difficult to pin down what constitutes a success or a defeat. These extremists' sole purpose is the propagation of violence as a means to an end--neither peace nor compromise is not an option for them.

<thanks for posting the article>

Norman · 10-12-09, 09:38 AM

09-12-09, 02:46 PM	#2
Arcana XV Left/Right of Center Join Date: May 2007 Last Seen: Today 01:34 PM Location: Geneva, Switzerland Posts: 2,084 Thanks: 1,013 Thanked 1,121 Times in 626 Posts Lean: Independent Gender:	Re: The Next Osama? Very good article. Looks like AlQaeda is following in the footsteps of other terrorist organisations in the past that also realized that violence alone will not get them what they want. Eventually, they all reduce the violence and increase the ideology speeches that do win more minds, especially the young and highly educated, around to the cause.
	__________________ "Yes, but are you a Protestant atheist or a Catholic atheist?".- Northern Irish joke

09-17-09, 08:30 PM	#4
bhkad Sage Join Date: May 2007 Last Seen: Today 12:28 AM Posts: 10,267 Thanks: 3,494 Thanked 1,570 Times in 1,057 Posts Total Awards: 1	Re: The Next Osama? Thread bump.
	__________________ OBL 11/24/02

09-17-09, 09:05 PM	#5
other Advisor Join Date: Sep 2009 Last Seen: Today 02:40 AM Location: VA Posts: 579 Thanks: 178 Thanked 191 Times in 134 Posts Lean: Conservative Gender: Total Awards: 1	Re: The Next Osama? And what happens when there's a fanatical ideology at war with you, and you are unable or unwilling to acknowledge it? There is real danger because of the dispersion of wahhabism, linked through western communication networks to what is essentially a central group of propagandists. Internal law enforcement agencies need to be on the alert, and we need to remain on the offensive. This is a war, unfortunately, where it is difficult to pin down what constitutes a success or a defeat. These extremists' sole purpose is the propagation of violence as a means to an end--neither peace nor compromise is not an option for them. <thanks for posting the article>

10-12-09, 09:38 AM	#6
Norman User Join Date: Oct 2009 Last Seen: 10-12-09 09:38 AM Posts: 1 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Re: The Next Osama?

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