Summerwind

Well, I wouldn't be counting on the idea that they find us so important to them anymore.

jallman

Ha. Okay. The middle east would crumble back to the stone age without our guidance and support. Oil is the only thing that brought that barbaric wasteland out of tribal wars and once it's gone, I'll be more than happy to see it sink back into the sands.

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Summerwind

No you miss my point, there are plenty of other countries needing oil, they don't need us (USA) so much anymore. And honestly do you think Europe will refuse to buy ME oil just because we choose to boycott? Or China? Or India? It will be 10 years of dedicated domestic oil search and seizure before we could come close to replacing that much oil. So who'd be hurting more, the ME or the USA?

I also don't stand by your definition of civilized in order to judge the ME as barbaric; the ME has had many stages in its history including some that would put ours to shame relatively speaking. And it seems that current or recently past history as displayed to us in the USA may be quite propagandized, so I have little faith in the idea of barbarity that they supposedly needed to be saved from.

jallman

How are they gonna get that oil to Europe if it has to come across that strait? I mean, the whole discussion was about closing that strait off. That's why I originally stated that they won't do it. It's their income.

And we will agree to disagree about the middle east. I firmly believe the entire Arab tribe is subhuman and a blight to the world.

Summerwind

Wow, you really have the time line messed up somehow, there's room for all of it on a time line; not as happening all at once though. I think that the arrogance, about the ME (and most any other country in the world including our allies) that you and so many display, will be the same attitude that basically causes the US's down fall.

Particularly when throughout that arrogance we somehow find ways to justify acting just like them; not just on the battlefield, but also removing and rescinding rights of our own citizens, our death penalty laws, our own human rights abuses (for example; our rate of incarceration wherein blacks and hispanics more likely to be incarcerated fraudulently or have unfairly harsh sentences), corruption of our elected officials, power abuse by police and military forces, and so much more.

Gladiator

Geo. W. Bush thinks he uinderstands air support because he flew a link trainer on the ground.

The concept of a projection of power fails to recognize mobile guided missles. What are the details of how the projection of force is going to affect two men in a cave with with a mobile missle, and maybe a cell phone. And then maybe 5000 men with 2500 missles, in 2500 hideouts.

How is this projection of force from a carrier group going to significangtly impinge on the missle firing capability of the Iranians in the Stait of Hormuz, and nearby areas? The US and the West uses the most sophisticated helicoptors, and cannot stop Mortars or Katyusha rockets.


"Kiryat Shmona was hard-hit during the 34-day Second Lebanon War, during which Hezbollah fired some 4,000 Katyusha rockets at towns and cities across northern Israel."

Olmert: Katyusha strikes show need for UNIFIL in S. Lebanon - Haaretz - Israel News


The force from an air craft carrier group will not put much of a dent in dedicated terrorists who are dedicated to launcning mobile guided missles.

A carrier strike force is awsome, I am sure, but it is of little help against thousands of terrorists spread out in the mountains with mobile missles.

The reaility is that it would be easy for Iran to shut down the Straight of Hormuz. One question, is whether the order will be given? Another question is how fast can the West get trucks and piplines going to bypass the Strait of Hormuz?

Anyone who doubts that Iran cannot close the Strait of Hormuz, is failing to give the Iranians the respect they are due at the negotiating table. Underestimating Iran's capabilities would be typical of W, and his advisers.



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WI Crippler

Its one thing to lob rockets into crowded cities, and with marginal effect at that, and hitting a moving target in a vast body of water. I am not afraid of their supposed ability to strike Naval vessels with any degree of success. They could not even average a rate kill of 1 Israeli per rocket.

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partier9

Now if Israel can do this for vechicles we could do it against rocket launchers from caves on our ships.


so i wouldn't worry about it.

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Gladiator

Katyusha rockets are not accurate, I agree.

"Iranian Sunburns, Silkworms and Exocets are on mobile launchers, hidden in caves and warehouses throughout a million square miles of mountainous cliffy terrain. The mobile missiles only need a spotter with eyes on the Hormuz, and a wire phone link to the cave. "

Iran has more accurate anti-ship missles. Iran can either stop shipping, or just harrass shipping, with inacruate missles. Iran has both effective and ineffective missles.

Which would you prefer Iran to use in the Strait of Hormuz?

WI Crippler

I'm really not worried about it. Honestly. The military is most certainley aware of Irans capabilities, as well as our own. If our Admirals aren't quailing in fear, then I am not. Force Recon, SEALs as well as covert op forces could be used to locate areas where resistance is mounted and airstrikes could take out those areas and launchers. I worked in Marine Aviation, and part of my job was working hand in hand with our intel image analysts, who received imagrey from our overhead aerial reconassaince provided by our F/A-18s via the ATARS system. So I have an idea just how good our aerial recce can be, and coupled with ground intel, we would have an advantage in ship positioning, and first strike capability based on that. Would it be difficult? Sure, nothing in war is supposed to be easy. But I am confident we have the capability to keep the Strait open if we so choose. Plus the US Navy has a robust anti-missile defense in their carrier groups.