What It Would Really Take to Knock Out the Power Grid

What It Would Really Take to Knock Out the Power Grid

Simpleχity;1065197396 said:

What It Would Really Take to Knock Out the Power Grid

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Given the nature of our grid just now, I'm going to stop complaining about upgrades. Seems we're better off without them.

I fail to see why companies that use control systems and networks, which much be pretty much all of them, have to connect them directly or indirectly to the Internet. That's just completely foolish just waiting for trouble to find them.

The attackers don't even have to attack in any physical sense. Just via the Internet, as demonstrated by this DHS test.

Idaho National Laboratory ran the Aurora Generator Test in 2007 to demonstrate how a cyber attack could destroy physical components of the electric grid.[SUP][1][/SUP] The experiment used a computer program to rapidly open and close a diesel generator's circuit breakers out of phase from the rest of the grid and explode. This vulnerability is referred to as the Aurora Vulnerability.
This vulnerability is especially a concern because much grid equipment supports using Modbus and other legacy communications protocols that were designed without security in mind. As such, they don't support authentication, confidentiality, or replay protection, which means any attacker that can communicate with the device can control it and use the Aurora Vulnerability to destroy it. This is a serious concern, as the failure of even a single generator could cause widespread outages and possibly cascading failure of the entire power grid, like what occurred in the Northeast blackout of 2003. Additionally, even if there are no outages from the removal of a single component (N-1 resilience), there is a large window for a second attack or failure, as it could take more than a year to replace it, because many generators and transformers are custom-built for the substation.
The Aurora vulnerability can be mitigated by preventing the out-of-phase opening and closing of the breakers. Some suggested methods include adding functionality in protective relays to ensure synchronism and adding a time delay for closing breakers.[SUP][2][/SUP]

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Aurora Generator Test
Video of the test:


This isn't some new revelation, and was foreshadowed quite some time ago.

WarGames (1983)

Simpleχity;1065197396 said:

What It Would Really Take to Knock Out the Power Grid

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As evidenced by the somewhat innocuous events that cascaded into major blackouts in the Eastern US in recent history, our power grid is increasingly vulnerable. Add in the move to install individual renewable energy generation and the resulting impact on utility revenue, and the power grid is in growing danger of severe problems.

There is no doubt an asymmetrical attack on the power grid is a real possibility. Failure to be proactive will be catastrophic.

eohrnberger said:

I fail to see why companies that use control systems and networks, which much be pretty much all of them, have to connect them directly or indirectly to the Internet. That's just completely foolish just waiting for trouble to find them.

The attackers don't even have to attack in any physical sense. Just via the Internet, as demonstrated by this DHS test.
Aurora Generator Test
Video of the test:


This isn't some new revelation, and was foreshadowed quite some time ago.

WarGames (1983)

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Good morning, Erik. :2wave:

:agree: All we've basically heard so far is talk about what should be done to protect our grid, but is anything actually being done? I hope so, because one strike will send this country back to the dark ages since we are so dependent on electricity, and from what I've read, it will take years, if at all, to replace what we will lose. I hate to think about this!

Since I doubt we would get any forewarning from those that would destroy us, how long will people survive without food, water, communications, heating and cooling, vehicles that still run, medicines that people need to take, etc, not to mention no police or firemen and all the other things we take for granted? No more than a week after all the looting is done by the "unprepareds" to get what they need for themselves and their families to survive for the moment, I would guess. Then what after that besides desperation, since the government will be unable to help?

I read recently that the very wealthy are already buying property in New Zealand, of all places, to escape to, and I wondered "why New Zealand? - because it's on the other side of the world?" They apparently really believe something is coming I guess. :shock:

Put a militiaman under every pylon, it'll keep them away from tree-watering.

Actually it's even more simple than that.

There was this one incident where an entire power system was knocked out by a military jet's chaffe, which is jsut foil strips.

When the northeastern grid went out 10 years ago or so, it was summer so not too bad. If it happened in January, I'd imagine people would be burning trees within hours for warmth.

polgara said:

Good morning, Erik. :2wave:

:agree: All we've basically heard so far is talk about what should be done to protect our grid, but is anything actually being done? I hope so, because one strike will send this country back to the dark ages since we are so dependent on electricity, and from what I've read, it will take years, if at all, to replace what we will lose. I hate to think about this!

Since I doubt we would get any forewarning from those that would destroy us, how long will people survive without food, water, communications, heating and cooling, vehicles that still run, medicines that people need to take, etc, not to mention no police or firemen and all the other things we take for granted? No more than a week after all the looting is done by the "unprepareds" to get what they need for themselves and their families to survive for the moment, I would guess. Then what after that besides desperation, since the government will be unable to help?

I read recently that the very wealthy are already buying property in New Zealand, of all places, to escape to, and I wondered "why New Zealand? - because it's on the other side of the world?" They apparently really believe something is coming I guess. :shock:

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Networked control systems are a reality we can no longer escape, as the systems have grown so complex that there's no way to operating them any more without such control systems. You may very well ask why the CIA operates both a secure network and an unsecured network, and devices are on one or the other, but never both, and never switched between the two. Same should be done for the control systems and networks for the utilities the electorate depends on, as without them, chaos would soon follow.

The very wealthy believe that they can escape to New Zealand should an attack take out the power grid. They are fooling themselves. The only way to avoid getting caught up in the big blackout is to be in New Zealand before it starts.

My house is too close to Detroit. If I had to bug out without electricity, I'd have to siphon the gas from all the other cars into one, pack it and head out to the cottage, where the population density is much lower, but probably still not low enough to survive unscathed or unmolested.

Face it. Should the big black out come, the US society would turn into animalistic anarchy probably at the beginning of week two, and you wouldn't know exactly when that second week was starting.

Ancient Herald said:

Actually it's even more simple than that.

There was this one incident where an entire power system was knocked out by a military jet's chaffe, which is jsut foil strips.

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Hmm. A drone, and you probably could deliver that pretty easily. Knocking out a larger area would take a set of coordinated drone attacks. On the other hand, it would be pretty quick and easy to clean it up and get the power back online I would imagine.

polgara said:

No more than a week after all the looting is done by the "unprepareds" to get what they need for themselves and their families to survive for the moment, I would guess. Then what after that besides desperation, since the government will be unable to help?

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That's a decent prediction. I live way out in the boonies and the local rural utility company takes a good week to repair lines from an ice storm or nearby tornado. So, we have generators, but for a large-scale scenario like we're talking about here - the damage could be catastrophic.

The saving grace is that the grid is not connected - not completely. If New York goes black, out here, my little rural co-op will still be running, as well as all the other utilities in regions not affected. If a handful of major cities were targeted all at once, as you say, we would see looting and eventually robbing to take food from those who are hoarding/growing/producing. Total chaos.

Even those of us with generators would soon run out of fuel to run them. We're all personally responsible for having our own backup plans. I know I'm not prepared for an event such as that but I think rural dwellers such as myself, would fare better overall.

HowardBThiname said:

That's a decent prediction. I live way out in the boonies and the local rural utility company takes a good week to repair lines from an ice storm or nearby tornado. So, we have generators, but for a large-scale scenario like we're talking about here - the damage could be catastrophic.

The saving grace is that the grid is not connected - not completely. If New York goes black, out here, my little rural co-op will still be running, as well as all the other utilities in regions not affected. If a handful of major cities were targeted all at once, as you say, we would see looting and eventually robbing to take food from those who are hoarding/growing/producing. Total chaos.

Even those of us with generators would soon run out of fuel to run them. We're all personally responsible for having our own backup plans. I know I'm not prepared for an event such as that but I think rural dwellers such as myself, would fare better overall.

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You know there are hand crank generators, don't you?

Why would you use those that require fuel?

Ancient Herald said:

You know there are hand crank generators, don't you?

Why would you use those that require fuel?

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There are pedal-powered ones as well, but they require a lot of effort for a small output. A better long-term option would be off-grid solar or wind. Grid-tie systems are useless if the utility company fails.

HowardBThiname said:

That's a decent prediction. I live way out in the boonies and the local rural utility company takes a good week to repair lines from an ice storm or nearby tornado. So, we have generators, but for a large-scale scenario like we're talking about here - the damage could be catastrophic.

The saving grace is that the grid is not connected - not completely. If New York goes black, out here, my little rural co-op will still be running, as well as all the other utilities in regions not affected. If a handful of major cities were targeted all at once, as you say, we would see looting and eventually robbing to take food from those who are hoarding/growing/producing. Total chaos.

Even those of us with generators would soon run out of fuel to run them. We're all personally responsible for having our own backup plans. I know I'm not prepared for an event such as that but I think rural dwellers such as myself, would fare better overall.

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Good morning, HowardBThiname. :2wave:

:agree: I honestly don't know how people are going to handle being forced to live like people did 300 years ago in this country. Most of the population were farmers back then, and could at least grow their own food, where today we depend on our grocery stores. Even if people started gardens, it takes time for things to grow, and those living in high rise apartments wouldn't even have that option. We have cold weather here in NE Ohio with snow for at least five months a year which is another problem. And where will people get clean drinking water? Those two items are the most important IMO, because we need them to survive. I really think our governments at all levels should be instructing people on what to do now - if nothing bad happens, you would at least have extra food on hand that could be eaten, so it wouldn't be a waste of time or money. Maybe I'll start a thread to give people a chance to make suggestions, because this is something that will affect us all if it comes to pass.

HowardBThiname said:

That's a decent prediction. I live way out in the boonies and the local rural utility company takes a good week to repair lines from an ice storm or nearby tornado. So, we have generators, but for a large-scale scenario like we're talking about here - the damage could be catastrophic.

The saving grace is that the grid is not connected - not completely. If New York goes black, out here, my little rural co-op will still be running, as well as all the other utilities in regions not affected. If a handful of major cities were targeted all at once, as you say, we would see looting and eventually robbing to take food from those who are hoarding/growing/producing. Total chaos.

Even those of us with generators would soon run out of fuel to run them. We're all personally responsible for having our own backup plans. I know I'm not prepared for an event such as that but I think rural dwellers such as myself, would fare better overall.

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This is why we all should hoard gold. It's good to eat and drink, and you can turn your power back on with it. Who knew?

HowardBThiname said:

That's a decent prediction. I live way out in the boonies and the local rural utility company takes a good week to repair lines from an ice storm or nearby tornado. So, we have generators, but for a large-scale scenario like we're talking about here - the damage could be catastrophic.

The saving grace is that the grid is not connected - not completely. If New York goes black, out here, my little rural co-op will still be running, as well as all the other utilities in regions not affected. If a handful of major cities were targeted all at once, as you say, we would see looting and eventually robbing to take food from those who are hoarding/growing/producing. Total chaos.

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Actually, you would be surprised.

Are you aware that there are only 2 US states who have an entirely self-contained power grid? Where there are no connections between their power providers and those of neighboring states and countries?

You may have a "rural co-op", but is it completely cut off from the rest of the power grid?Odds are, it is not. This is because the vast majority are connected as a way to use the grid as a battery. Selling excess power to the grid for money when demand is low, buying it from the grid when demand is high. They all do this, from Eddison and PGE to LA DWP and all others.

A single switch failure in New York in 1965 knocked out power to most of the Eastern US (and huge areas of Canada), killing the power to over 30 million homes in 8 states and 2 Provinces.

polgara said:

:agree: I honestly don't know how people are going to handle being forced to live like people did 300 years ago in this country. Most of the population were farmers back then, and could at least grow their own food, where today we depend on our grocery stores. Even if people started gardens, it takes time for things to grow, and those living in high rise apartments wouldn't even have that option. We have cold weather here in NE Ohio with snow for at least five months a year which is another problem. And where will people get clean drinking water? Those two items are the most important IMO, because we need them to survive. I really think our governments at all levels should be instructing people on what to do now - if nothing bad happens, you would at least have extra food on hand that could be eaten, so it wouldn't be a waste of time or money. Maybe I'll start a thread to give people a chance to make suggestions, because this is something that will affect us all if it comes to pass.

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Quite simply, most of the population would die. Probably 60-80% within 9 months. Then another 50-60% of the survivors in the next 9 months. Those survivors, the rate will probably drop to 20% of those survivors in the following 9 months, roughly a year and a half after that was required.

Simple fact is, we are to technologically dependent on our technology to survive without it. Not only to grow the crops, but to irrigate and harvest them. Then to process them, and then distribute them to the people who need to eat.

And not just food, what would happen in say Las Vegas or Los Angeles if the water stopped coming in?

The first result would be a mass exodus, officer workers who would barely recognize wild wheat if they saw it fleeing to the countryside, eating everything in their path like locusts. Bankers and Bakers ruining half the meat from butchering a milk cow because they are hungry now, not thinking that by leaving the cow alive and using the milk they would survive much longer.

And even if they did recognize wheat, how many would know how to harvest it? How many water or wind mills are left to turn grain into meal or flour?

Simple truth is, probably 80% of the people would be dead within 2 years if the lights went off forever. Most simply lack the skills that would be required to survive.

Oozlefinch said:

Actually, you would be surprised.

Are you aware that there are only 2 US states who have an entirely self-contained power grid? Where there are no connections between their power providers and those of neighboring states and countries?

You may have a "rural co-op", but is it completely cut off from the rest of the power grid?Odds are, it is not. This is because the vast majority are connected as a way to use the grid as a battery. Selling excess power to the grid for money when demand is low, buying it from the grid when demand is high. They all do this, from Eddison and PGE to LA DWP and all others.

A single switch failure in New York in 1965 knocked out power to most of the Eastern US (and huge areas of Canada), killing the power to over 30 million homes in 8 states and 2 Provinces.

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We've come a long way since 1965. Right now, relay stations can switch on and off specific parts of their service area in order to work on areas damaged by storms etc. That why, even when there's city-wide outage from a storm, parts of the city come back online a bit at a time. If all the grid was affected every time a storm knocked down a line, we'd be in big trouble but it doesn't work that way anymore.

HowardBThiname said:

We've come a long way since 1965. Right now, relay stations can switch on and off specific parts of their service area in order to work on areas damaged by storms etc. That why, even when there's city-wide outage from a storm, parts of the city come back online a bit at a time. If all the grid was affected every time a storm knocked down a line, we'd be in big trouble but it doesn't work that way anymore.

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*laugh*

Keep telling that to yourself, it might help you sleep at night.

The 2003 blackout, which affected over 55 million people in 8 states and Canada, was caused by a software bug in a single switching station in Ohio.

I am not saying such things happen every time, but they can and do still happen.

BTW, I was actually living in one of the few areas in 2011 that ran an isolated power grid. It was not connected to any other power systems, and for 3 days we had rolling blackouts in subzero weather because about 1/3 of the generators went offline.

Oozlefinch said:

*laugh*

Keep telling that to yourself, it might help you sleep at night.

The 2003 blackout, which affected over 55 million people in 8 states and Canada, was caused by a software bug in a single switching station in Ohio.

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I know "things happen" and the 2003 blackout was widespread but within hours some power was restored and the rest were brought back online over the next few days.

I thought we were talking about a doomsday scenario here - one that would have people looting and starving. How much of that went on in the 2003 outage?

I am not saying such things happen every time, but they can and do still happen.

BTW, I was actually living in one of the few areas in 2011 that ran an isolated power grid. It was not connected to any other power systems, and for 3 days we had rolling blackouts in subzero weather because about 1/3 of the generators went offline.

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Yes, that the kind of thing I was thinking of. An ice storm a few years ago broke so many power lines that it was right at a week before the utility company could restore power. But, that's why folks around here have generators.

I'm sure we'll have more situations like those, but that's not exactly what I thought this thread was about.

HowardBThiname said:

I know "things happen" and the 2003 blackout was widespread but within hours some power was restored and the rest were brought back online over the next few days.

I thought we were talking about a doomsday scenario here - one that would have people looting and starving. How much of that went on in the 2003 outage?

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That kind of thing requires a great many things to happen.

I do remember the 1977 blackout very well, and that one resulted in widespread looting and valdalism.

It requires much more then just a blackout to cause panic and looting.

HowardBThiname said:

Yes, that the kind of thing I was thinking of. An ice storm a few years ago broke so many power lines that it was right at a week before the utility company could restore power. But, that's why folks around here have generators.

I'm sure we'll have more situations like those, but that's not exactly what I thought this thread was about.

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In 2011 no power lines were damaged, the generators simply could not operate in the cold and shut down.