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The Republicans caused this bad economy.



To really figure out what caused this collapse we have to stick to the big picture on taxation. Since Ronald Reagan, our government has simply chosen to tax less than they spend. This was a component of the collapse.

As for Fair Tax, I see some good and bad. Too mixed to get off the ground I think. I like consumption taxes. That is where it is right. I like the concession that they made in the proposal to ensure that no one pays this consumption tax up to the poverty level. The big and obvious problem here is that tax burden would shift entirely to us. (I think it’s us, anybody here making ten million dollars a year?) The problem is that a person making $75K a year has to spend all of that to live, thus being taxed on 100% of income. If a person earning 10 million dollars a year lives by spending only 500K in that year, then they pay taxes on only 5% of their income.

The person making 1 billion dollars a year pays even less. We can’t live in a system where only poor people pay taxes.

More sensible would be some workable flat tax built by someone smarter than me. Perhaps a flat 6% with no deductions no matter what you earn?
 
Since Reagan, Congress has chosen to spend more than it taxes.
 
So which party follows the ideology of less government/regulation? Is it the Democrats?

That shows what happens when Conservatives try to act in a bipartisan fashion. All of a sudden it's, "look at what the Republicans did."

I guess that is why Republicans should get rid of any ideas of trying to work with liberals if we are going to be held responsible for what was done TOGETHER.
 
President Bush warned us of GSE problems in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007 and 17 times in 2008.

The White House, President George W. Bush

For Immediate Release
Office of the Press Secretary
September 19, 2008

Just the Facts: The Administration's Unheeded Warnings About the Systemic Risk Posed by the GSEs

For many years the President and his Administration have not only warned of the systemic consequences of financial turmoil at a housing government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) but also put forward thoughtful plans to reduce the risk that either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac would encounter such difficulties. President Bush publicly called for GSE reform 17 times in 2008 alone before Congress acted. Unfortunately, these warnings went unheeded, as the President's repeated attempts to reform the supervision of these entities were thwarted by the legislative maneuvering of those who emphatically denied there were problems.

2001

April: The Administration's FY02 budget declares that the size of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is "a potential problem," because "financial trouble of a large GSE could cause strong repercussions in financial markets, affecting Federally insured entities and economic activity."

2002

May: The President calls for the disclosure and corporate governance principles contained in his 10-point plan for corporate responsibility to apply to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. (OMB Prompt Letter to OFHEO, 5/29/02)

2003

January: Freddie Mac announces it has to restate financial results for the previous three years.

February: The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) releases a report explaining that "although investors perceive an implicit Federal guarantee of [GSE] obligations," "the government has provided no explicit legal backing for them." As a consequence, unexpected problems at a GSE could immediately spread into financial sectors beyond the housing market. ("Systemic Risk: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Role of OFHEO," OFHEO Report, 2/4/03)

September: Fannie Mae discloses SEC investigation and acknowledges OFHEO's review found earnings manipulations.

September: Treasury Secretary John Snow testifies before the House Financial Services Committee to recommend that Congress enact "legislation to create a new Federal agency to regulate and supervise the financial activities of our housing-related government sponsored enterprises" and set prudent and appropriate minimum capital adequacy requirements.

October: Fannie Mae discloses $1.2 billion accounting error.

November: Council of the Economic Advisers (CEA) Chairman Greg Mankiw explains that any "legislation to reform GSE regulation should empower the new regulator with sufficient strength and credibility to reduce systemic risk." To reduce the potential for systemic instability, the regulator would have "broad authority to set both risk-based and minimum capital standards" and "receivership powers necessary to wind down the affairs of a troubled GSE." (N. Gregory Mankiw, Remarks At The Conference Of State Bank Supervisors State Banking Summit And Leadership, 11/6/03)

2004

February: The President's FY05 Budget again highlights the risk posed by the explosive growth of the GSEs and their low levels of required capital, and called for creation of a new, world-class regulator: "The Administration has determined that the safety and soundness regulators of the housing GSEs lack sufficient power and stature to meet their responsibilities, and therefore…should be replaced with a new strengthened regulator." (2005 Budget Analytic Perspectives, pg. 83)

February: CEA Chairman Mankiw cautions Congress to "not take [the financial market's] strength for granted." Again, the call from the Administration was to reduce this risk by "ensuring that the housing GSEs are overseen by an effective regulator." (N. Gregory Mankiw, Op-Ed, "Keeping Fannie And Freddie's House In Order," Financial Times, 2/24/04)

June: Deputy Secretary of Treasury Samuel Bodman spotlights the risk posed by the GSEs and called for reform, saying "We do not have a world-class system of supervision of the housing government sponsored enterprises (GSEs), even though the importance of the housing financial system that the GSEs serve demands the best in supervision to ensure the long-term vitality of that system. Therefore, the Administration has called for a new, first class, regulatory supervisor for the three housing GSEs: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banking System." (Samuel Bodman, House Financial Services Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations Testimony, 6/16/04)

2005

April: Treasury Secretary John Snow repeats his call for GSE reform, saying "Events that have transpired since I testified before this Committee in 2003 reinforce concerns over the systemic risks posed by the GSEs and further highlight the need for real GSE reform to ensure that our housing finance system remains a strong and vibrant source of funding for expanding homeownership opportunities in America… Half-measures will only exacerbate the risks to our financial system." (Secretary John W. Snow, "Testimony Before The U.S. House Financial Services Committee," 4/13/05)

2007

July: Two Bear Stearns hedge funds invested in mortgage securities collapse.

August: President Bush emphatically calls on Congress to pass a reform package for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, saying "first things first when it comes to those two institutions. Congress needs to get them reformed, get them streamlined, get them focused, and then I will consider other options." (President George W. Bush, Press Conference, The White House, 8/9/07)

September: RealtyTrac announces foreclosure filings up 243,000 in August – up 115 percent from the year before.

September: Single-family existing home sales decreases 7.5 percent from the previous month – the lowest level in nine years. Median sale price of existing homes fell six percent from the year before.

December: President Bush again warns Congress of the need to pass legislation reforming GSEs, saying "These institutions provide liquidity in the mortgage market that benefits millions of homeowners, and it is vital they operate safely and operate soundly. So I've called on Congress to pass legislation that strengthens independent regulation of the GSEs – and ensures they focus on their important housing mission. The GSE reform bill passed by the House earlier this year is a good start. But the Senate has not acted. And the United States Senate needs to pass this legislation soon." (President George W. Bush, Discusses Housing, The White House, 12/6/07)

2008

January: Bank of America announces it will buy Countrywide.

January: Citigroup announces mortgage portfolio lost $18.1 billion in value.

February: Assistant Secretary David Nason reiterates the urgency of reforms, says "A new regulatory structure for the housing GSEs is essential if these entities are to continue to perform their public mission successfully." (David Nason, Testimony On Reforming GSE Regulation, Senate Committee On Banking, Housing And Urban Affairs, 2/7/08)

March: Bear Stearns announces it will sell itself to JPMorgan Chase.

March: President Bush calls on Congress to take action and "move forward with reforms on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They need to continue to modernize the FHA, as well as allow State housing agencies to issue tax-free bonds to homeowners to refinance their mortgages." (President George W. Bush, Remarks To The Economic Club Of New York, New York, NY, 3/14/08)

April: President Bush urges Congress to pass the much needed legislation and "modernize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. [There are] constructive things Congress can do that will encourage the housing market to correct quickly by … helping people stay in their homes." (President George W. Bush, Meeting With Cabinet, the White House, 4/14/08)

May: President Bush issues several pleas to Congress to pass legislation reforming Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac before the situation deteriorates further.

*

"Americans are concerned about making their mortgage payments and keeping their homes. Yet Congress has failed to pass legislation I have repeatedly requested to modernize the Federal Housing Administration that will help more families stay in their homes, reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to ensure they focus on their housing mission, and allow State housing agencies to issue tax-free bonds to refinance sub-prime loans." (President George W. Bush, Radio Address, 5/3/08)
*

"[T]he government ought to be helping creditworthy people stay in their homes. And one way we can do that – and Congress is making progress on this – is the reform of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. That reform will come with a strong, independent regulator." (President George W. Bush, Meeting With The Secretary Of The Treasury, the White House, 5/19/08)
*

"Congress needs to pass legislation to modernize the Federal Housing Administration, reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to ensure they focus on their housing mission, and allow State housing agencies to issue tax-free bonds to refinance subprime loans." (President George W. Bush, Radio Address, 5/31/08)

June: As foreclosure rates continued to rise in the first quarter, the President once again asks Congress to take the necessary measures to address this challenge, saying "we need to pass legislation to reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac." (President George W. Bush, Remarks At Swearing In Ceremony For Secretary Of Housing And Urban Development, Washington, D.C., 6/6/08)

July: Congress heeds the President's call for action and passes reform of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as it becomes clear that the institutions are failing.

# # #

Return to this article at:
Just the Facts: The Administration's Unheeded Warnings About the Systemic Risk Posed by the GSEs
 
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Every budget, every piece of legislation, every blunder made to get us in this mess had votes from Democrats as well as from Republicans. However, I see no reason to overlook the fact that Republicans held majority in Congress for an incredible 11 years from 1995 to 2006. During that time they were not known for “acting in a bipartisan fashion”. They were not known for “trying to work with liberals”. Far from it. Republicans became known for literally locking Democrats out of key meetings. They set the agenda and they followed it.

Again, look at who wrote the law, who voted for it and whom it benefited. Look back at the spending votes. Look at Gramm-Bliley and Futures Modernization.

Republicans didn’t reach over to work with the opposition. In the worse sort of abuse of authority, shortly after the 9/11 attacks, their attitude became “vote with me or you are no patriot”, using a national tragedy to push an agenda that proved disastrous.
 
Don't forget that it was Clinton who signed the Gramm Act, which dismantled the Glass-Steagall Act, into law. There is plenty of blame to go around, and it should be laid at the doorstep of EVERYBODY, not just the Republican Party.
 
The total value of all mortgages in the US is just over 10 trillion dollars. Right now, just over 6.5* percent of those are either delinquent or in default. That represents 650 billion dollars worth of mortgage paper. The houses underlying will not lose all value. Even if we take an extreme look and knock off 50%, we have a potential real loss of 325 billion dollars.

So why the 1.2 trillion dollar bailout? Changes to regulation allowed the industry to securitize bundled mortgages which were then sold to markets on margin, with investment banks lending at a 30:1 ratio.

Those changes to regulation effected the greatest wealth transfer in our history.

* Delinquencies and Foreclosures Increase in Latest MBA National Delinquency Survey

Wait, are you intentionally trying to confuse hard product, credit confidence/asset price risk, and how market regulation works? 1.2 trillion dollar bailout? Are you talking about Obama's plan or Bush's original numbers before the cutoff?

I'm looking over your info here and you've based the majority of your arguement on the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (which was overwhelming agreed upon by both parties) which is debatable at best. However, you out critical info adjustable rate mortgages (which had nothing to do with Gramm-Bailey) or the connection of Securities to CDS's.

In short, your paper while good in its shock and awe factor is a few pages to light to explain what caused this cascade failure. But it this isn't something new either since Paul Krugmann wrote something pretty similar (which is why I don't view your blog as original)...and was reamed for it on the same points.

No my friend, if the Republicans are going to take some blame its for their inaction.
 
Yes. He was weak. Wasn’t that against a veto-proof majority?

No it wasn't. The Democrats had a majority in the Senate at the time. The Republicans controlled the House, but did not have anywhere near the 2/3 majority required to be able to override a veto.
 
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Wait, are you intentionally trying to confuse hard product, credit confidence/asset price risk, and how market regulation works? 1.2 trillion dollar bailout? Are you talking about Obama's plan or Bush's original numbers before the cutoff?

I'm looking over your info here and you've based the majority of your arguement on the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (which was overwhelming agreed upon by both parties) which is debatable at best. However, you out critical info adjustable rate mortgages (which had nothing to do with Gramm-Bailey) or the connection of Securities to CDS's.

In short, your paper while good in its shock and awe factor is a few pages to light to explain what caused this cascade failure. But it this isn't something new either since Paul Krugmann wrote something pretty similar (which is why I don't view your blog as original)...and was reamed for it on the same points.

No my friend, if the Republicans are going to take some blame its for their inaction.


Gramm-Bliley was a foot in the door. Clinton and other Democrats of the time were just as strongly deregulationist as the authors of the bill. The real meat I think came in the Futures Modernization Act which went so far as to specifically make it illegal to regulate Credit Default Swaps. These were the major steps taken to make it legal to create many new investment instruments that we see falling about us now. And don’t discount the effect of changing the fractional reserve ratio. And yes, I try to read as much as I can. I wouldn’t know any of this if I didn’t read.
 
Gramm-Bliley was a foot in the door. Clinton and other Democrats of the time were just as strongly deregulationist as the authors of the bill. The real meat I think came in the Futures Modernization Act which went so far as to specifically make it illegal to regulate Credit Default Swaps. These were the major steps taken to make it legal to create many new investment instruments that we see falling about us now. And don’t discount the effect of changing the fractional reserve ratio. And yes, I try to read as much as I can. I wouldn’t know any of this if I didn’t read.

Gramm-Bliley was more than just a foot in the door. The purpose of the Glass-Steagall Act was to wall off the banking, insurance, and stock market sectors from each other, so that if one sector went down, it would not take the other sectors with it. The reason this recession is going to be a bad one can be directly attributable to Gramm-Bliley.
 
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No it wasn't. The Democrats had a majority in the Senate at the time. The Republicans controlled the House, but did not have anywhere near the 2/3 majority required to be able to override a veto.


Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act
On May 6, 1999, the Senate passed the bills by a 54-44 vote along party lines (53 Republicans and one Democrat in favor; 44 Democrats opposed).

105th United States Congress
Senate Majority: Republican Party
House Majority: Republican Party

Republican Party 55
Democratic Party 45



all Wikipedia, so it could have been written by a monkey
 
Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act
On May 6, 1999, the Senate passed the bills by a 54-44 vote along party lines (53 Republicans and one Democrat in favor; 44 Democrats opposed).

105th United States Congress
Senate Majority: Republican Party
House Majority: Republican Party

Republican Party 55
Democratic Party 45



all Wikipedia, so it could have been written by a monkey

Oops, my bad on the Senate. However, that is not 67 Republicans, is it?
 
More sensible would be some workable flat tax built by someone smarter than me. Perhaps a flat 6% with no deductions no matter what you earn?

There was an interesting debate in Parliament before the Revolution where it was in essence argued that landed estates do not pay fair taxes, when the consumer pays a tax on their drink at the pub but the landed estate owner pays no tax on his consumption.

Keeping that in mind, I did the calculations once when a newspaper published the net worth and tax returns of several rich people; the paper I wrote on it was destroyed during a hurricane, so this is what I remember (general range for Dole and Isackson):

$250,000,000 temp agency owner running for Governor, was paying .75% of his net worth in taxes. {In one of the years listed he paid absolutely no income tax, yet the government continued to protect his net worth from the barbarian horde that would pillage it, I had to work to eat.}

Bob Dole was paying about 1.75% of his net worth in taxes.

Johnny Isackson whose net worth was less than Bob Dole was paying about 2% of his net worth in taxes.

I was paying 3.75% of my net worth in taxes, with a net worth of about $80,000.

The flatter the income tax the worse the calculations turn out, that is due to the fact that many rich people do not have as much of the majority of their net worth in Real property like they did during the age of landed estates.

According to the nature of things income put in the wallet is no different than the net worth in the wallet.

Logic dictates that Income can have more than three years of plenty and more than seven years of lean. That is the reason for income averaging, but it is only for a short time.

Logically the person who sees ten years of plenty for a progressive punishment and then sees ten years of drought gets punished by progressive taxes, like actors in a 99.9% income tax bracket, so now that we have fixed it the flat income tax crowd knee-jerks for more. The lucky guy who had the steady stream of income is not punished by progressive taxes.

If you want a flat income tax on income to the wallet, why not just do away with the ups and downs of progressive income punishment and have a flat net worth tax on the wallet, with one deduction up to $200,000 of net worth for the principle residence? That would give everyone the exact same flat tax and the exact same deduction; isn‘t that more fair than a flat income tax that makes you sweat to pay the insurance on the rich man‘s estate when he has no income?

You said: “’This is all because Bill Clinton made us loan money to minorities.’ This is ridiculous.”

You are 100% true on that. It was good for rhetoric, for the ignorant, but not good at making laws to fix the problems.

Congress sets goals for the Fed and when Republicans had both houses they saw no problem, and like I quoted Greenspan from 2004 (on page one) he saw no problem, but we blame Meeks, Waters, and Frank for in 2005 seeing no problem. As far as I know only Meeks was man enough to repent without any prodding. I think we may need some cattle prods to get the Republican party to repent. Maybe eight years of Obama putting them in retreat will make them see the light.

Although deficits were created to fight wars, and the British kicked French butt to prove it, we are in a potentially endless kind of war making deficits stupid. We are at war in the oil basket, the economic oil pan, running up a debt after breaking the Newt/Clinton agreements to balance, and we could not change the oil without a National Energy Policy (we could not get because neither side would compromise on Alaska). Having an economic downturn was inevitable. War is a fluid situation especially when your supply lines are tenuous.

If you had all the old US News and World Reports, or a library with them, I would say look for a last page article during Jimmy Cotter Pin on the S&L’s, and what they predicted. It can be good rhetoric to blame the S&L crisis and the current Mortgage crisis on Jimmy Cotter Pin, when we are innocent, but Republicans are not innocent and neither are the businesses.

Without addressing the laws, the bailout to increase credit is like a bucket with holes in it and you are poking more; the worker sweats, the usurer gives him more debt than he can handle without laws to stop it. In normal downturns, food and gas go up, hours get cut, and the usurers come out smelling like a rose if they can survive long enough to sell all those bank owned properties the government subsidized. The little guys the banks fracked mercilessly due to irresponsible business practices literally must pay for the bank’s continued wealth and stable net worth.

Government offering to help homeowners without putting a choking collar around the neck of every usurer (using Shakespeare's definition) is like a beautiful sadist tying the homeowner up for sex then letting the dog eat him.
 
So which party follows the ideology of less government/regulation? Is it the Democrats?

Neither Republicans nor Democrats follow the ideology of less government/regulation.

Both parties are Liberal now.
 
Philip Gramm Is A Terrorist!

"Philip Gramm Is A Terrorist!"
You're right. He should have vetoed it.
That would have forced another vote.

The simple deduction is that the CRA would have been limited to direct credit, if it had not been for the bipartisan screwing of the american public with deregulation which repealed legislation that legalized fraud by allowing the creation and sale of essentially junk bonds, that was perpetrated upon the average investors retirement.

410k is tax deferred so there can be no write down losses, which is a convenient dupe designed by the criminals and malefactors in both parties, which orchestrated the robbery and disintegration of the countries finances, while feigning valor and concern, while selfishly, unrestrainingly, helping themselves to a big bowl of lagniappe with taxpayer gravy.

I raised hell about this on many instances, an example: http://www.debatepolitics.com/us-po...ommandeers-enron-loophole.html#post1057764757
 
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As I said, someone smarter than me needs to figure out the new tax structure. I do like the home mortgage deduction. It’s the only thing I have working for me. Also, before the start of progressive taxation, wasn’t there a problem with wealth growing unchecked? Isn’t that why we needed one? I don’t think we’ll see a major change in tax structure. After some stimulus time, they'll simply decrease spending and then roll taxes back to where they were in 1999.
 
Re: Philip Gramm Is A Terrorist!

"Philip Gramm Is A Terrorist!"

Might be a bit strong. I do agree that he is one of the primary culprits in the blame game we are playing here. I’d like to see him in jail. It hard to believe he was so recently the Economic Advisor to the Republican candidate for President.
 
before the start of progressive taxation, wasn’t there a problem with wealth growing unchecked?

The Roman emperors would not allow corporations out of fear of something more powerful than them. At one point the robber barons were a real threat, and we were on the edge of it looking like a Dickens novel where the urchins play in a wooden elephant.

I don’t think smarts had anything to do with this mess. And I stupidly wanted to vote for Philip Gramm once; he has such a cute baby face. I think the real criminal here is a lack of common sense regulation for safe and sound business practices in keeping with safe and sound operation of Aristotle’s household management.

Two usurers with different morals and the same debtor cannot be safe and sound business without some government regulation.

The owners and executive officers of the principle means of production can set their income and golden parachutes so they suffer not, passing down the cost to the consumers no matter how progressive the income tax. At the same time the workers must fight for every insurance against pollution caused by not being able to open the door on a hot day because it would violate the EPA’s clean air regulations. Workers are given a golden parachute in the name of entitlements, which is figured into the contracts, then the silver spoon in his mouth inheritor of the principle means of production wants to remove those golden parachutes knowing only his wealth is protected by no ex post facto law allowing for his golden parachute to be taken away.

Conservatives need to learn a little history and find some common sense with liberals, for something other than having to sue or riot for benefits, and not think the word “conservative” means going Libertarian until the elephant is full of totally free ragged urchins with peg legs...
 
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