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Clinton’s Lead Is Becoming Safer

imyoda

imyoda

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Clinton’s Lead Is Becoming Safer


Gary Johnson averaged just 7 percentage points in 11 polls1 released on Thursday, continuing a string of bad results for the Libertarian Party nominee. At the same time, the number of undecided voters appears to be falling. Those two trends are combining to remove some of the uncertainty in our forecasts — historically, the number of undecided and third-party voters has been strongly correlated with both polling volatility and polling error. The share of voters not supporting the major-party candidates remains higher than it was at this point in the 2012 campaign, for example, but the more it shrinks, the safer Hillary Clinton’s lead becomes.

Clinton and Donald Trump now combine for a little over 84 percent of the vote. That’s the highest their combined share has been since we started issuing our forecasts in June.2 There hasn’t been a huge change, but it’s meaningful. All this shouldn’t be too surprising. We’re now only about a month away from the election; more voters are making up their minds. In recent elections, moreover, third-party candidates have tended to fade in the polls as Election Day approaches — Johnson and Jill Stein, the Green Party nominee, appear to be following the same trend.

With more voters committed to one of the two major-party nominees, Trump simply has fewer people he can appeal to in order to make up his current deficit, which makes Clinton’s lead more secure. A 5-percentage-point lead with about 15 percent of the electorate undecided or voting for a third-party candidate (about where the race currently stands) is far better than a 5-point lead with over 20 percent of the electorate undecided or voting for a third-party candidate (about where the race was in mid-June). That’s part of the reason that Clinton’s chances of winning the election are in the upper 70s now, while they were in the low 70s back in June. ………….

Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Is Becoming Safer | FiveThirtyEight

If all holds true to form……..AS Election Day gets closer the support of Johnson and Stein will bleed away with most voting for HRC……….
………….Which should add another 3 pts to her lead
 
Jesse Booth said:
Thanks, Trump. She literally couldn't have done it without you.
Click to expand...

It seems to be so.

Last time I checked 538's Election Forecast, Trump had a 39% chance of winning. I just checked it a minute ago, and now it's down to 21.3%.
 
Jesse Booth said:
Thanks, Trump. She literally couldn't have done it without you.
Click to expand...

Let's face it, Trump never had a chance the moment he opened his mouth.
 
imyoda said:
Clinton’s Lead Is Becoming Safer


Gary Johnson averaged just 7 percentage points in 11 polls1 released on Thursday, continuing a string of bad results for the Libertarian Party nominee. At the same time, the number of undecided voters appears to be falling. Those two trends are combining to remove some of the uncertainty in our forecasts — historically, the number of undecided and third-party voters has been strongly correlated with both polling volatility and polling error. The share of voters not supporting the major-party candidates remains higher than it was at this point in the 2012 campaign, for example, but the more it shrinks, the safer Hillary Clinton’s lead becomes.

...There hasn’t been a huge change, but it’s meaningful....

With more voters committed to one of the two major-party nominees, Trump simply has fewer people he can appeal to in order to make up his current deficit, which makes Clinton’s lead more secure. A 5-percentage-point lead with about 15 percent of the electorate undecided or voting for a third-party candidate (about where the race currently stands) is far better than a 5-point lead with over 20 percent of the electorate undecided or voting for a third-party candidate (about where the race was in mid-June). That’s part of the reason that Clinton’s chances of winning the election are in the upper 70s now, while they were in the low 70s back in June. ………….
Click to expand...

Again, with the Polls?

"There hasn't been a huge change...but her 5 point lead" seems safer, at least according to this opinion piece. That's all it is, a piece of opinion.

Again, always crowing about appearances based on trending polls. The hope is if you can make her appear to be a winner then she will become the winner.

I think the pundits are over-estimating and I hope they keep doing it.

IMO the more people who think their candidate is bound to win, the less likely they think their vote is needed. Thus, the less likely they are to get off their asses and actually vote.

Trump keeps pulling them in to mass rallies, and those people clearly believe that their votes count. I certainly believe mine does now.
 
imyoda said:
Clinton’s Lead Is Becoming Safer


Gary Johnson averaged just 7 percentage points in 11 polls1 released on Thursday, continuing a string of bad results for the Libertarian Party nominee. At the same time, the number of undecided voters appears to be falling. Those two trends are combining to remove some of the uncertainty in our forecasts — historically, the number of undecided and third-party voters has been strongly correlated with both polling volatility and polling error. The share of voters not supporting the major-party candidates remains higher than it was at this point in the 2012 campaign, for example, but the more it shrinks, the safer Hillary Clinton’s lead becomes.

Clinton and Donald Trump now combine for a little over 84 percent of the vote. That’s the highest their combined share has been since we started issuing our forecasts in June.2 There hasn’t been a huge change, but it’s meaningful. All this shouldn’t be too surprising. We’re now only about a month away from the election; more voters are making up their minds. In recent elections, moreover, third-party candidates have tended to fade in the polls as Election Day approaches — Johnson and Jill Stein, the Green Party nominee, appear to be following the same trend.

With more voters committed to one of the two major-party nominees, Trump simply has fewer people he can appeal to in order to make up his current deficit, which makes Clinton’s lead more secure. A 5-percentage-point lead with about 15 percent of the electorate undecided or voting for a third-party candidate (about where the race currently stands) is far better than a 5-point lead with over 20 percent of the electorate undecided or voting for a third-party candidate (about where the race was in mid-June). That’s part of the reason that Clinton’s chances of winning the election are in the upper 70s now, while they were in the low 70s back in June. ………….

Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Is Becoming Safer | FiveThirtyEight

If all holds true to form……..AS Election Day gets closer the support of Johnson and Stein will bleed away with most voting for HRC……….
………….Which should add another 3 pts to her lead
Click to expand...

Good, let's she pull her a Congress.
 
From the day Trump announced he was running most every prediction was WRONG. How many times were we told that he could not get above 20% then it was 30% then 40%. That what he just said will finish him. No really this time he went to far he is done! He beat very experienced republican politicians and received the largest number of votes ever for a republican presidential candidate. Pretty much the democrats, republicans, most of the media have hammered this guy every way they could. The race is very close a few point ahead for Clinton.

There are still about 30 some days till we vote. This race is absolutely no where close to being over.
 
Common Sense 1 said:
From the day Trump announced he was running most every prediction was WRONG. How many times were we told that he could not get above 20% then it was 30% then 40%. That what he just said will finish him. No really this time he went to far he is done! He beat very experienced republican politicians and received the largest number of votes ever for a republican presidential candidate. Pretty much the democrats, republicans, most of the media have hammered this guy every way they could. The race is very close a few point ahead for Clinton.

There are still about 30 some days till we vote. This race is absolutely no where close to being over.
Click to expand...

I'd rather it be over so we can pull the Congress.
 
Yoda, the American people have the attention span of a goldfish.

No politician in the modern era would have gotten away with saying a 50th of the crap that he's said and it's only because of that, that Clinton is staving off what would have been certain defeat at the hands of Rubio or Bush.

The question we have to ask ourselves at this point is, are Americans actually crazy enough to elect Trump?

I really hope the answer is no, for all our sakes.

Dark populism has gripped the Western World, with the dark auspices of nationalism and fear becoming the driving forces behind a ever growing spiral of looking for easy solutions and "strong men" to "fix" it.

Voting for Trump is simply put, an insane decision.
 
A little over a month from now we won't be talking about who's going to win,we'll be talking about how much Clinton won by and hearing all of the 'woulda,coulda,shouldas from the Alt-Right losers.

Just sayin'

:lol:
 
Food for thought:

Colombian voters’ rejection on Sunday of a peace agreement to end the country’s 52-year conflict with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, was a backbreaking defeat for the Bogota government. It was also an embarrassment for Colombian pollsters, who were so confident the accord would be approved that they muffed their country's most consequential election in a generation.
.
.
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Carlos Julio Lemoine, president of the Centro Nacional de Consultoría polling firm, which had projected a 65 percent to 29 percent win for Sí, attributed the polling failure to “the spiral of silence.” That’s a theory by the late German political scientist Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann, which posits that people prefer to keep quiet rather than publicly express views that they fear aren’t held by the majority.
.
.
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Colombian pollsters say the other factor that might have tripped them up was the triumphant signing ceremony held by the government on September 26, the Monday before the referendum was held. The elaborate event, featuring more than a dozen foreign heads of state, was meant to trigger a surge of momentum for the Sí forces down the home stretch. But it seems to have had the opposite effect.
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The ?spiral of silence?: how pollsters got the Colombia-FARC peace deal vote so wrong - Vox

Here people who like Trump tend to get harassed for it, and the elite are almost gleefully waiting for a Trump drubbing.

Maybe the polls are massively wrong here too.....
 
Top Cat said:
For good reason. He's a total jack wagon.
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Because America is a very intolerant place, actually.

We tend to think that we get to decide what is in other peoples minds.

And we tend to get very not nice when reality does not conform to our will, because Americans tend to be ignorant.

Including and maybe especially those who have submitted they minds to warping at the modern "UNIVERSITY", even the IVY's.
 
Last edited:
imyoda said:
Clinton’s Lead Is Becoming Safer


Gary Johnson averaged just 7 percentage points in 11 polls1 released on Thursday, continuing a string of bad results for the Libertarian Party nominee. At the same time, the number of undecided voters appears to be falling. Those two trends are combining to remove some of the uncertainty in our forecasts — historically, the number of undecided and third-party voters has been strongly correlated with both polling volatility and polling error. The share of voters not supporting the major-party candidates remains higher than it was at this point in the 2012 campaign, for example, but the more it shrinks, the safer Hillary Clinton’s lead becomes.

Clinton and Donald Trump now combine for a little over 84 percent of the vote. That’s the highest their combined share has been since we started issuing our forecasts in June.2 There hasn’t been a huge change, but it’s meaningful. All this shouldn’t be too surprising. We’re now only about a month away from the election; more voters are making up their minds. In recent elections, moreover, third-party candidates have tended to fade in the polls as Election Day approaches — Johnson and Jill Stein, the Green Party nominee, appear to be following the same trend.

With more voters committed to one of the two major-party nominees, Trump simply has fewer people he can appeal to in order to make up his current deficit, which makes Clinton’s lead more secure. A 5-percentage-point lead with about 15 percent of the electorate undecided or voting for a third-party candidate (about where the race currently stands) is far better than a 5-point lead with over 20 percent of the electorate undecided or voting for a third-party candidate (about where the race was in mid-June). That’s part of the reason that Clinton’s chances of winning the election are in the upper 70s now, while they were in the low 70s back in June. ………….

Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Is Becoming Safer | FiveThirtyEight

If all holds true to form……..AS Election Day gets closer the support of Johnson and Stein will bleed away with most voting for HRC……….
………….Which should add another 3 pts to her lead
Click to expand...

Yup, Trump is getting smaller in the rear view mirror.
 
Captain Adverse said:
Again, with the Polls?

"There hasn't been a huge change...but her 5 point lead" seems safer, at least according to this opinion piece. That's all it is, a piece of opinion.

Again, always crowing about appearances based on trending polls. The hope is if you can make her appear to be a winner then she will become the winner.

I think the pundits are over-estimating and I hope they keep doing it.

IMO the more people who think their candidate is bound to win, the less likely they think their vote is needed. Thus, the less likely they are to get off their asses and actually vote.

Trump keeps pulling them in to mass rallies, and those people clearly believe that their votes count. I certainly believe mine does now.
Click to expand...

The opinion piece is talking about the change in the polls..................What one should be looking for is the trend lines an also how HRC has taken the lead in the swing states........

GOP's running for Congress and have begun to jump ship and if Trump does as well in #2 Sunday nite as he did in #1...........look out for the stamped of GOP candidates running away from Trump as if he had plague.............

It is always not to give up hope ..........but as 538 sees the EC count...........it is 70-30 HRC........

But in Trump's favor someone..........possibly a little birdie .........he has decided not to do that Clinton scandal stuff he was threatening to do........

At least, not doing that...........he still has a remote chance of getting close of 270........
 
Captain Adverse said:
Again, with the Polls?

"There hasn't been a huge change...but her 5 point lead" seems safer, at least according to this opinion piece. That's all it is, a piece of opinion.

Again, always crowing about appearances based on trending polls. The hope is if you can make her appear to be a winner then she will become the winner.

I think the pundits are over-estimating and I hope they keep doing it.

IMO the more people who think their candidate is bound to win, the less likely they think their vote is needed. Thus, the less likely they are to get off their asses and actually vote.

Trump keeps pulling them in to mass rallies, and those people clearly believe that their votes count. I certainly believe mine does now.
Click to expand...
I have a few friendly comments, here.

If you choose to discard the polls, fair enough - it seems to a standard feature of Trump supporters, and the election results will bear-out the wisdom (or not) of disregarding polls. [if it's safe to infer you are indeed a Trump supporter - my apologies if my inference is incorrect]

But yes, there is a substantial difference in this 5% lead vs that of August, and the OP piece described it well. A 5% lead and 20% undecided at 3 months out, is quite a bit different in statistical terms than the same lead with 15% undecided at 1 month out.

I'd also like to point-out that rally participation numbers do not necessarily directly translate to voter share. Examples abound: In 1988 Dukakis lost badly to Bush 41 while drawing large crowds, and ditto in 2004 for Kerry vs Bush 43.The most recent and perhaps most apropos example might be Bernie's crowds greatly exceeding HRC's to the very end!

So crowd size is relatively irrelevant.

I'd submit that Trump is a new & unique phenomenon in politics, whereas HRC has been strutted about for us for 3 decades, and that counts for much of the crowd discrepancy - the same as it did with Bernie.
 
imyoda said:
Clinton’s Lead Is Becoming Safer


Gary Johnson averaged just 7 percentage points in 11 polls1 released on Thursday, continuing a string of bad results for the Libertarian Party nominee. At the same time, the number of undecided voters appears to be falling. Those two trends are combining to remove some of the uncertainty in our forecasts — historically, the number of undecided and third-party voters has been strongly correlated with both polling volatility and polling error. The share of voters not supporting the major-party candidates remains higher than it was at this point in the 2012 campaign, for example, but the more it shrinks, the safer Hillary Clinton’s lead becomes.

Clinton and Donald Trump now combine for a little over 84 percent of the vote. That’s the highest their combined share has been since we started issuing our forecasts in June.2 There hasn’t been a huge change, but it’s meaningful. All this shouldn’t be too surprising. We’re now only about a month away from the election; more voters are making up their minds. In recent elections, moreover, third-party candidates have tended to fade in the polls as Election Day approaches — Johnson and Jill Stein, the Green Party nominee, appear to be following the same trend.

With more voters committed to one of the two major-party nominees, Trump simply has fewer people he can appeal to in order to make up his current deficit, which makes Clinton’s lead more secure. A 5-percentage-point lead with about 15 percent of the electorate undecided or voting for a third-party candidate (about where the race currently stands) is far better than a 5-point lead with over 20 percent of the electorate undecided or voting for a third-party candidate (about where the race was in mid-June). That’s part of the reason that Clinton’s chances of winning the election are in the upper 70s now, while they were in the low 70s back in June. ………….

Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Is Becoming Safer | FiveThirtyEight

If all holds true to form……..AS Election Day gets closer the support of Johnson and Stein will bleed away with most voting for HRC……….
………….Which should add another 3 pts to her lead
Click to expand...

You really must be worried about the election to post these poll threads all over the board all the time. It is if a 2 point change is huge. It isn't.
 
NonoBadDog said:
You really must be worried about the election to post these poll threads all over the board all the time. It is if a 2 point change is huge. It isn't.
Click to expand...

I don't much trust Yoda, but I do trust 538's analysis.
 
Kobie said:
I don't much trust Yoda, but I do trust 538's analysis.
Click to expand...

I used to then I started watching the spread and their articles and how they changed. The odds change every day so they are an indicator but when they polls change one point and the odds change 10 points it makes me dubious as to how they are shifting their odds on the back side. One point is well below the margin of error.

As far as polls go, they are still out of the 30 day window so they don't have to work at being accurate yet. They get graded on how accurate they are close to the election (inside the 30 day window). Some even fudge up until the last week, on both sides.

I like 538, most of the time. I was reading an article on that site about how polls aren't really skewed because pollsters don't skew polls. The article was about Trump's bad numbers, in August I think it was. A couple of weeks ago I was reading their "chat" and they were talking about how come the polls seem "inaccurate" when Trump's numbers were up. I will wait until the last two weeks to start taking polls seriously.
 
NonoBadDog said:
You really must be worried about the election to post these poll threads all over the board all the time. It is if a 2 point change is huge. It isn't.
Click to expand...

He neglects to acknowledge that Johnson has actually been taking more support away from Trump than Hillary. If Johnson's numbers continue to decline, that indicates Trump's winning them back due to Johnson's recent gaffes. (Stein would of course be taking more support from Hillary, but her polling is so tiny it is practically nonexistent)...
 
Abbazorkzog said:
He neglects to acknowledge that Johnson has actually been taking more support away from Trump than Hillary. If Johnson's numbers continue to decline, that indicates Trump's winning them back due to Johnson's recent gaffes. (Stein would of course be taking more support from Hillary, but her polling is so tiny it is practically nonexistent)...
Click to expand...

You are probably right. I have been waffling on who Johnson takes votes from. I thought it was Hillary but someone pointed out the possibility that it could be Stein that was taking numbers from Hillary. I had subconsciously removed Stein from the picture because she isn't worth thinking about for the most part. I realized I had been making a mistake. In the 4 way the losses to Hillary matched the gains for Stein. I had erroneously been attributing that to Johnson. Lately Johnson has been like a wannabe comedy routine. It wouldn't be so sad if he was actually funny. I was even thinking about voting for him but the more I look at his stances and knowledge the more he seems like an idiot.

(Pretty much exactly what you said only different)
 
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