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Anti-Trump faces deadline for real action

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haymarket

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This has been the week for lots of speculation about the move to stop Donald Trump from gaining the GOP Presidential nomination. We are four months away from the convention in Cleveland.

But a far more important date is fast coming up if there is any serious consideration to a third party effort for a true conservative candidate.

Texas would have to be one of the states the third party conservatives would likely target. To get on the ballot in Texas , one has to do one of two things:
1- get a party which already has automatic ballot access to nominate your candidate, or
2- start your own party and obtain nearly 80,000 signatures of registered voters by May 9th.

Since such an effort would be presumable be national in scope, it is doubtful the third party would piggyback on an existing party with ballot access - although that is possible. And in a pinch with no other viable alternative, they may go that route.

If conservatives want a third party candidacy, they would have to decide within the next three weeks or so giving them time to mount the effort to get those 80,000 signatures by the May 9th deadline. Waiting until the convention - and I would suggest waiting for the inevitable Trump nomination to take place - would be too late for them to get on the ballot in several other states as well having missed those deadlines or cutting it too close for all practical purposes.

https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_for_presidential_candidates

My prediction: no way Jose. They simply are not serious about doing this. And watch the calendar to validate my prediction that the right is not serious about this effort.

Instead we will get the mixed messages and half hearted efforts of some groups and individuals who fantasize about a brokered convention and stopping Trump there. And that plan will not work as it would openly destroy the party in the short term.

I welcome your thoughts.
 
haymarket said:
I welcome your thoughts.
Click to expand...

Seems like it'd be an awful waste of time and money ensuring a Clinton victory in November.

Curious though, is there some national consensus conservative candidate that all these petulant little #StopTrumpers agree should be the one to make it on to the ballot?

Unless I'm mistaken it isn't sufficient to have your party on the ballot, you actually need the name of a candidate.

I would think that all the Republicans who have already been knocked out of that race would be able to make a case (though how convincing any of them would be on an individual basis I have no idea) that he or she should be the third party candidate, and I'm sure that others would come out of the woodwork too looking for the nod as well.

Maybe if such a consensus candidate already existed you could put the mechanisms in place that would be necessary to do the groundwork to get him/her on the ballot.

But the whole point of primaries is to determine who the most desirable/electable candidate is.

In the situation you're describing it would have to be a matter of conservative "bosses" basically picking the one they liked and then building support around that individual (understanding that what the big money bosses want might not be the same thing, at all, that the rank and file conservative voter wants).

It's kind of a recipe for disaster if you ask me, but I guess folks who still think the world is flat and that dinosaurs frolicked with Neanderthals can be led around by the nose pretty easily so maybe there's a shot?
 
soot said:
Seems like it'd be an awful waste of time and money ensuring a Clinton victory in November.

Curious though, is there some national consensus conservative candidate that all these petulant little #StopTrumpers agree should be the one to make it on to the ballot?

Unless I'm mistaken it isn't sufficient to have your party on the ballot, you actually need the name of a candidate.

I would think that all the Republicans who have already been knocked out of that race would be able to make a case (though how convincing any of them would be on an individual basis I have no idea) that he or she should be the third party candidate, and I'm sure that others would come out of the woodwork too looking for the nod as well.

Maybe if such a consensus candidate already existed you could put the mechanisms in place that would be necessary to do the groundwork to get him/her on the ballot.

But the whole point of primaries is to determine who the most desirable/electable candidate is.

In the situation you're describing it would have to be a matter of conservative "bosses" basically picking the one they liked and then building support around that individual (understanding that what the big money bosses want might not be the same thing, at all, that the rank and file conservative voter wants).

It's kind of a recipe for disaster if you ask me, but I guess folks who still think the world is flat and that dinosaurs frolicked with Neanderthals can be led around by the nose pretty easily so maybe there's a shot?
Click to expand...

I agree with much of your analysis. You provide some solid additional reasons as to why this is not going to happen and is just more idle right wing talk that will come to nothing in the end.
 
I agree with you. Plenty of speculation, but not enough time. Besides the time issue, there is no guarantee they would win. If they split the vote, they might as well concede the election to Hillary. They might as well go with Cruz. If Trump is passed over, maybe Cruz would pick up some of his votes and be competitive against Hillary.
 
Tonawanda said:
I agree with you. Plenty of speculation, but not enough time. Besides the time issue, there is no guarantee they would win. If they split the vote, they might as well concede the election to Hillary. They might as well go with Cruz. If Trump is passed over, maybe Cruz would pick up some of his votes and be competitive against Hillary.
Click to expand...

Aside from the idea of viability as far as winning goes - I think there is a bigger question - at least for the angry conservatives who claim they cannot support Trump and that is control of the heart and soul of the party they claim as their own property.

Will they fight for it even if it threatens to destroy both the convention and the party.... or will they concede it and move the fight to another venue - the third party route ..... or will they do what some accuse the Democratic power structure of in 1972 - going along on the surface but sitting not heir hands during the election for them most part and then considering their control of their party after the objectionable candidate loses in November?

Number three is the easiest of the options and causes the least harm to the conservatives and their party providing they can keep control of the Senate despite not gaining the White House.

I see Cruz as never being competitive against Clinton and would probably do even worse than Trump. Although Trump is more of a wild card - Cruz is a sure thing loser in the manner of Goldwater in 64. In fact, the more I think about it, I would rather the Dems run against Cruz than anyone else.
 
Needing so many signatures *6 months* before the election, except for a few parties that are granted special favor, only further cements my view that our 'democracy' is rigged to be as undemocratic as possible. Throw 'superdelegates' and electoral college into the mix and it's almost like democracy in iran
 
What happens if Trump is contested? Would he just put his name on the ballot anyway as a independent or something?
 
haymarket said:
Aside from the idea of viability as far as winning goes - I think there is a bigger question - at least for the angry conservatives who claim they cannot support Trump and that is control of the heart and soul of the party they claim as their own property.

Will they fight for it even if it threatens to destroy both the convention and the party.... or will they concede it and move the fight to another venue - the third party route ..... or will they do what some accuse the Democratic power structure of in 1972 - going along on the surface but sitting not heir hands during the election for them most part and then considering their control of their party after the objectionable candidate loses in November?

Number three is the easiest of the options and causes the least harm to the conservatives and their party providing they can keep control of the Senate despite not gaining the White House.

I see Cruz as never being competitive against Clinton and would probably do even worse than Trump. Although Trump is more of a wild card - Cruz is a sure thing loser in the manner of Goldwater in 64. In fact, the more I think about it, I would rather the Dems run against Cruz than anyone else.
Click to expand...

Yes, that would probably be the best option, but they have to gamble that Trump or Cruz would lose. They seem reluctant to take that chance. With Hillary's issues and problems with her base, anything could happen, especially if its Trump. And, there is a lot at stake in this election.
 
The establishment and media will just keep up this same crap with there slander and propaganda awakening more and more people all the way up to the general. The more they do this the more the people realize that they are full of sh** and will vote Trump.
 
The conventions are usually a borefest, but the GOP gig could be interesting to watch. I have been saying since Jan if it goes to a brokered convention, and Trump is denied, he will go 3rd party on the grounds the RNC broke there agreement, he has already made the threat several times. Mr. Trump does not like to loose, he will give the finger to the RNC and go it alone. Either way it does not look good for the GOP in Nov for the WH, I certainly would not bet on them.
 
haymarket said:
This has been the week for lots of speculation about the move to stop Donald Trump from gaining the GOP Presidential nomination. We are four months away from the convention in Cleveland.

But a far more important date is fast coming up if there is any serious consideration to a third party effort for a true conservative candidate.

Texas would have to be one of the states the third party conservatives would likely target. To get on the ballot in Texas , one has to do one of two things:
1- get a party which already has automatic ballot access to nominate your candidate, or
2- start your own party and obtain nearly 80,000 signatures of registered voters by May 9th.

Since such an effort would be presumable be national in scope, it is doubtful the third party would piggyback on an existing party with ballot access - although that is possible. And in a pinch with no other viable alternative, they may go that route.

If conservatives want a third party candidacy, they would have to decide within the next three weeks or so giving them time to mount the effort to get those 80,000 signatures by the May 9th deadline. Waiting until the convention - and I would suggest waiting for the inevitable Trump nomination to take place - would be too late for them to get on the ballot in several other states as well having missed those deadlines or cutting it too close for all practical purposes.

https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_for_presidential_candidates

My prediction: no way Jose. They simply are not serious about doing this. And watch the calendar to validate my prediction that the right is not serious about this effort.

Instead we will get the mixed messages and half hearted efforts of some groups and individuals who fantasize about a brokered convention and stopping Trump there. And that plan will not work as it would openly destroy the party in the short term.

I welcome your thoughts.
Click to expand...

I have no idea how this "reality show" will end and plan to just sit here and eat my popcorn waiting for the sure to be.........surprise ending..........


.....this is the stuff of fiction....
 
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