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Chuck Todd & Trumps numbers predictions

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haymarket

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NBC weekly Sunday Morning show MEET THE PRESS features moderator Chuck Todd - who is something of a whiz with the numbers that tell the back story in politics. Just now he revealed something that I found really interesting - and possible predictive of Tuesday.

In states where
a- the state unemployment is above 5%, and
b - the African American population is above 8%

Trump finishes first in those states in past GOP primaries winning all nine out of nine.

This Tuesday, five states vote - in three of them - Illinois, Florida and North Carolina, both factors are present.

So will this interesting factoid be a predictive indicator and Trump wins all three states this Tuesday?

btw - Todd pointed out that Trump is NOT gets African American votes in those states but that white voters who live in those states are then more likely to vote for Trump.

The other interesting development on both MEET THE PRESS and FACE THE NATION is that it looks like Kasich is expected to win Ohio.
 
So whats his prediction on a trump win or loss
 
haymarket said:
NBC weekly Sunday Morning show MEET THE PRESS features moderator Chuck Todd - who is something of a whiz with the numbers that tell the back story in politics. Just now he revealed something that I found really interesting - and possible predictive of Tuesday.

In states where
a- the state unemployment is above 5%, and
b - the African American population is above 8%

Trump finishes first in those states in past GOP primaries winning all nine out of nine.

This Tuesday, five states vote - in three of them - Illinois, Florida and North Carolina, both factors are present.

So will this interesting factoid be a predictive indicator and Trump wins all three states this Tuesday?

btw - Todd pointed out that Trump is NOT gets African American votes in those states but that white voters who live in those states are then more likely to vote for Trump.

The other interesting development on both MEET THE PRESS and FACE THE NATION is that it looks like Kasich is expected to win Ohio.
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What are you insinuating? Or, alternatively, what are you implying that Todd is insinuating? Especially given that I live in one of the states you're talking about.
 
Beaudreaux said:
What are you insinuating? Or, alternatively, what are you implying that Todd is insinuating? Especially given that I live in one of the states you're talking about.
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Simply providing the numbers and then a possible predictive factor for Tuesday if those numbers hold true as they have in nine out of nine past states where Trump finished first.
 
haymarket said:
Simply providing the numbers and then a possible predictive factor for Tuesday if those numbers hold true as they have in nine out of nine past states where Trump finished first.
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Correlation does not imply causation. Again, what is the implied causation by the insinuation you and Todd are making?
 
Beaudreaux said:
Correlation does not imply causation. Again, what is the implied causation by the insinuation you and Todd are making?
Click to expand...

WHAT? :roll: I have no idea what you are hinting around at. All I am doing is presenting some interesting figures that proved predictive in nine past states where Trump won and saying lets watch on Tuesday night to see if they hold true again.
 
haymarket said:
WHAT? :roll: I have no idea what you are hinting around at. All I am doing is presenting some interesting figures that proved predictive in nine past states where Trump won and saying lets watch on Tuesday night to see if they hold true again.
Click to expand...

Correlation does not imply causation. Therefore... what you and Todd are discussing is not predictive of outcome, but rather portrayed by you both indicative of Trump supporters (which I am not, by any stretch of the imagination, BTW).

You're not a stupid person - I know this. Please don't write sentences that appear to be so. I'm not hinting at anything, and if truth would be told, neither are you or Todd - it's plain as day. I just want you to put it in honest words. Be proud of your views. Stand with your fist clinched and held high over your head. Tell us what you think about his supporters without the veils or verbal slight of hand.
 
Beaudreaux said:
What are you insinuating? Or, alternatively, what are you implying that Todd is insinuating? Especially given that I live in one of the states you're talking about.
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I'll say it- where whites have lower the national average income or higher than national average unemployment, where minorities are larger than the national average it seems the white folks flock to Trump. His following seems to be resentful white folks the trickle down never got to... :peace
 
Beaudreaux said:
Correlation does not imply causation. Therefore... what you and Todd are discussing is not predictive of outcome, but rather portrayed by you both indicative of Trump supporters (which I am not, by any stretch of the imagination, BTW).

You're not a stupid person - I know this. Please don't write sentences that appear to be so. I'm not hinting at anything, and if truth would be told, neither are you or Todd - it's plain as day. I just want you to put it in honest words. Be proud of your views. Stand with your fist clinched and held high over your head. Tell us what you think about his supporters without the veils or verbal slight of hand.
Click to expand...

If its plain as day perhaps you better step up and explain it. All I did was relate what Todd revealed as interesting predictive factors which could predict Tuesdays results.
 
haymarket said:
If its plain as day perhaps you better step up and explain it. All I did was relate what Todd revealed as interesting predictive factors which could predict Tuesdays results.
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They aren't predictive, they are anecdotal. Again, correlation does not imply causation. You and Todd are implying causation, hence your post above where you say just that - "predictive factors which could predict Tuesdays (sic) results." I asked you in essence: Why you feel they are predictive and not anecdotal? Why are they not just two otherwise extraneous data points to election outcome but rather causal in nature and allowing you to use them to predict said outcome?
 
Beaudreaux said:
They aren't predictive, they are anecdotal. Again, correlation does not imply causation. You and Todd are implying causation, hence your post above where you say just that - "predictive factors which could predict Tuesdays (sic) results." I asked you in essence: Why you feel they are predictive and not anecdotal? Why are they not just two otherwise extraneous data points to election outcome but rather causal in nature and allowing you to use them to predict said outcome?
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I have absolutely not the teeniest or slightest idea why your are reacting in this way. All this is is Todd pointing out that when those two factors are present, Trump finishes first and has done so in nine out of nine states where these are present.

And on Tuesday, three more states - have the factors and Trump could well win making it 12 out of 12.

For people who like to make predictions - that is something to hang your hat on.

Data Download: Will Trump'''s Victories Predict Future Primary Success? - NBC News
 
haymarket said:
I have absolutely not the teeniest or slightest idea why your are reacting in this way. All this is is Todd pointing out that when those two factors are present, Trump finishes first and has done so in nine out of nine states where these are present.

And on Tuesday, three more states - have the factors and Trump could well win making it 12 out of 12.

For people who like to make predictions - that is something to hang your hat on.

Data Download: Will Trump'''s Victories Predict Future Primary Success? - NBC News
Click to expand...

As you seem to prefer to get your post count up instead of answering my question, I will move on.
 
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