Its no secret that long before November 2016 we all know California, New York and Massachusetts are going to vote for the whoever the Democrat nominee is. Likewise, we all know Texas, Alabama and Georgia are going to vote for whoever the Republican nominee is. My questions are: why and more importantly what can be done to help voters have more of an open mind to make every state a so-called "battleground" state?
I'll answer the easiest given on what contributes to seeing states consider a party other than the one they traditionally support: interstate migration. Florida, for example, was a solid red state but because so many American from the North East and more recently Puerto Rico have relocated to The Sunshine State, its an up for grabs purple state in presidential elections. Georgia and Texas could be next.
A couple of things.
1. Migration. Easily the largest, and it's bigger than just immigration. Immigration does naturally factor in, with the larger immigrant populations typically going Democratic. However, migration can happen for other reasons. Take for example the shift of Virginia from Red to Purple; this is largely due to the substantial migration into the northern Virginia area primarily by people who's jobs somehow connect to the government. The massive population influx in northern Virginia has helped to tilt the state purple. Likely you're seeing a similar thing in Florida, where traditionally the elderly went Red, but your migrant elderly going into Florida are most likely from the northeast escaping the cold, and thus prone to be Blue.
2. Urbanization. As our economy continues to go more and more to a service based one, dwelling in or near the urban centers is becoming a larger deal. And urban centers tend to go blue, not red. In the short term, this is unlikely to change. However, if we're prognosticating into the future, the greater adoption of telepresence potential could perhaps cause a reversal of this as the ability to make a living without residing within an urban center could increase.
3. Group Think. With the advent of social media and the great ubiquitous nature of the internet, group think has simply became greater than before. Views and thoughts that were often thought to be too far out of the mainstream, or outside of "polite conversation", can now be shared and discussed on the regular. Minority views in the past had one feeling like an outsider, where as now it is easy to find others who share your views even if it's still no less of a minority than it was in the past. As such, there's a greater desire to homogenize one's existence. A greater desire to be separate or to stamp out the "other side" in one's life. This leads to a great gravitation to particular areas based on ideology. Many a left leaning persons given a choice between two equal jobs, one in Alabama and one in Massachusetts, may be more likely to choose the latter due to a disdain for the culture and politics in Alabama. The same likely holds true for many right leaning persons, simply in the opposite direction.
4. Continuing generations. Here's where I think things are going to be interesting over the next 20 years. What was stereotypically a concern of one generation may not be the other. While immigration issues may be of great concern to many first and second generation American latino's now, as you get to your 3rd and 4th generation ones may have shifting concerns that draw their voting attention. I think the most likely chance of seeing significant shake up in the makeup of the states voting habits will be a natural one, as demographics that typically aligned in one direction begin to have a greater amount of people becoming concerned more with issues that point them in a different direction.
Another thing that could potentially cause a significant change 20 years down the line would be if there's a gravitation towards the middle of the country due to cheap land and/or some kind of boom. If access to some of the infrastructure that helped fortify the coasts is made even less important by technology, then companies and the government may begin to see value in relocating resources into "cheaper" areas of the country. If this happens, it could impact things in a multitude of ways. In one scenario, an influx of blue state thinking could be transported into the red state middle of America and swing them purple. Alternatively, another scenario would be that the population shift would be enough to increase the electoral value of many of those middle America states while reducing the value of some of the traditional power houses on the coasts, causing little change in what states are blue and red but causing a significant change in the electoral situation.
