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Prediction markets say Rubio most likely GOP nominee

mbig

mbig

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Follow the pro-prognosticators?
I don't think so.
Rubio looks like a smart guy, but his Immigration and others policies are troubling.
and I don't think he has near the Charisma to win.

Some handicapping from Conservative AmericanThinker.
And I agree with AT.
Cruz is running a very clever campaign IMO: tucked in behind Trump on inside rail.

Prediction markets say Rubio most likely GOP nominee
By Ed Straker - October 24, 2015
Blog: Prediction markets say Rubio most likely GOP nominee
Betting and prediction markets say that Marco Rubio is most likely to be the Republican nominee. There. Now how much are you willing to put down on Marco's candicacy? I personally will have to look into some of these markets to see if there is a way to short them.

It’s official: Jeb Bush is no longer the leading contender to become the Republican candidate for president. Instead, prediction markets now rate Marco Rubio as far more likely to get the nod.
One broad measure of the betting markets puts Mr. Rubio’s chances at 34% versus Mr. Bush’s at 23%.
Traders at Betfair, which is the world’s largest betting exchange, but which doesn’t take bets from Americans, rate Mr. Bush a 20% chance to win the nomination, while Mr. Rubio is given a 29% chance. Over at PredictIt... traders have moved more decisively, giving Mr. Bush a 24% chance, compared with Mr. Rubio’s 40%.

The outsiders Donald Trump and Ben Carson continue to dominate the polls, each well above 20% in national polls, while typically neither Mr. Rubio nor Mr. Bush registers double-digit support. Yet prediction markets see neither Mr. Trump nor Mr. Carson as likely to win the nomination. Mr. Trump is rated around a one-in-Six chance to win, with Mr. Carson’s chances at about Half that. The different assessment of prediction markets relative to pollsters is a bet that public opinion remains largely in flux, and that neither Mr. Trump nor Mr. Carson has built a reliable political coalition or an enduring political organization.​

I guess this goes to show that even markets can be wrong. Marco Rubio speaks in a rapid-fire, nervous manner, even when he isn't sweating. He was a leading proponent of amnesty and continues to support it for so-called Dreamers; supported the Iran Deal legislation; runs Dopey ads where he talks about football;
and looked like he was about to cry when John Boehner stepped down. I don't see how, in this environment, he gets nominated.

Now, it is true that Trump and Carson have not built an "organization." But that hasn't seemed to stop their rise in the polls. I personally believe that Carson is too Soft-spoken to be nominated. But I think if either Trump or Carson falls, one's support will go to the other, and if both fall, much of their support will go to Ted Cruz. The voting base of establishment Republicans (Bush, Rubio, Kasich, Christie, etc.) doesn't seem to total more than 25%. I don't see how Marco Rubio gets nominated under these circumstances.

If I were a betting man, I would say at this moment the nominee is going to be Donald Trump or Ted Cruz (who does have an organization). I think Rubio strikes people as being too unsure of himself. Carson is, as I've said, too soft-spoken. That may help him win a plurality in Iowa, but I don't think will get him enough national support. As for Jeb, he's too closely associated with amnesty. So I think it is Trump, unless people pull back and decide they want a political figure, in which case I think they will turn to Cruz....
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Last edited:
mbig said:
Follow the pro-pognosticators?
I don't think so.
Rubio looks like a smart guy, but his Immigration and others policies are troubling.
and I don't think he has near the Charisma to win.

Some handicapping from Conservative AmericanThinker.

Prediction markets say Rubio most likely GOP nominee
By Ed Straker - October 24, 2015
Blog: Prediction markets say Rubio most likely GOP nominee
Click to expand...

From listening to the first GOP debate this was my take as well.

However Rubio does not nearly have the star power that Trump has.

Coincidentally both Reagan and Trump were tv stars. Both were also rich.

I guess the gipper has come back to life to haunt us.
 
Riveroaks said:
From listening to the first GOP debate this was my take as well.

However Rubio does not nearly have the star power that Trump has.

Coincidentally both Reagan and Trump were tv stars. Both were also rich.

I guess the gipper has come back to life to haunt us.
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Nor does he have the talent for saying outrageous **** that Trump has as well.
 
My thing with Trump isn't so much about how he'd do the job from INSIDE THE OVAL OFFICE...it's...what he'd do when he's in other countries, dealing with people abroad. And how he would be received by those people.

All I know of his is from TV, and from his campaign, and frankly, he's kind of a one trick pony, he has a "hard" management style.

So I wonder, can he compromise? Not negotiate, I'm sure he can do that...can he COMPROMISE? Can he eat humble pie? Sometimes, you have to do that, even if you're the leader of the most powerful country in the world. You can catch more flies with honey than flypaper. That sorta thing.

And with him, I don't know, man.
 
KevinKohler said:
My thing with Trump isn't so much about how he'd do the job from INSIDE THE OVAL OFFICE...it's...what he'd do when he's in other countries, dealing with people abroad. And how he would be received by those people.

All I know of his is from TV, and from his campaign, and frankly, he's kind of a one trick pony, he has a "hard" management style.

So I wonder, can he compromise? Not negotiate, I'm sure he can do that...can he COMPROMISE? Can he eat humble pie? Sometimes, you have to do that, even if you're the leader of the most powerful country in the world. You can catch more flies with honey than flypaper. That sorta thing.

And with him, I don't know, man.
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The thing about Trump is he's saying what many want to hear. The problem is, is what he's going to do (and be) once in office what those same people want their president to do and be?

Words are easy - way too easy. And they come just as easy for a politician as they do for a salesman. What I fear too many are seeing in Trump is not Trump the salesman, but Trump the non-politician. Do any of those people who like what their "non-politician" is saying have the remotest clue what manner of individual the "salesman" will be once in office?
 
Beaudreaux said:
Nor does he have the talent for saying outrageous **** that Trump has as well.
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It's only going to get worse. Trump's mouth, I mean. A handful at a time he's going to alienate almost everyone.
 
These folks like to make a bit of a gamble to have a greater pay-off though.

At this rate, there's a pretty good chance that either Rubio or Bush gets it, but less certain either way. Rubio received a couple of meaningful endorsements recently while Bush is dead in the water-albeit, with a relatively superior endorsement and bank. Rubio doesn't suffer from Bush's last name and stigma, but he doesn't necessarily have any real history of being challenged. At the moment, there's not much going on in the way of serious politiking.

The crowded field and outsider phenomenon has really tanked the health of this primary.
 
Fiddytree said:
These folks like to make a bit of a gamble to have a greater pay-off though.

At this rate, there's a pretty good chance that either Rubio or Bush gets it, but less certain either way. Rubio received a couple of meaningful endorsements recently while Bush is dead in the water-albeit, with a relatively superior endorsement and bank. Rubio doesn't suffer from Bush's last name and stigma, but he doesn't necessarily have any real history of being challenged. At the moment, there's not much going on in the way of serious politiking.

The crowded field and outsider phenomenon has really tanked the health of this primary.
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Rubio showed promise - a couple of years ago. Since then he's been pretty much assimilated, which surprised me, tbh.
 
Fiddytree said:
These folks like to make a bit of a gamble to have a greater pay-off though.

At this rate, there's a pretty good chance that either Rubio or Bush gets it, but less certain either way. Rubio received a couple of meaningful endorsements recently while Bush is dead in the water-albeit, with a relatively superior endorsement and bank. Rubio doesn't suffer from Bush's last name and stigma, but he doesn't necessarily have any real history of being challenged. At the moment, there's not much going on in the way of serious politiking.

The crowded field and outsider phenomenon has really tanked the health of this primary.
Click to expand...

Rubio is about the most likely candidate for the party to rally around. Tea partiers, social conservatives, party mainstream, they could all get behind Rubio, and I think he is about the only one likely to get that. However, as you point out, Bush has the bank, the campaign apparatus in place, and could take it by dominating Super Tuesday. Rubio. Needs a bunch more to drop out so that support can coalesce around him.

Oh, and betting markets are terrible predictors this far out. Most people betting know less than you or I about the race.
 
Redress said:
Rubio is about the most likely candidate for the party to rally around....
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I know you weren't replying to my post, but that just phrase caught my eye and struck a different chord in me...

The general thought struck me, how we - American citizens, left, center, right, religious, non-religious, male, female, old, young, rich, poor, neither, etc. are engaged in such fevered and pitched battles with one another - over the likes of people of such "character" we'd likely not associate with them in our regular day-to-day lives, people who've elevated themselves out of our midst to live in their own little powerful, privileged and protected world, the net effect being we no longer could associate with one another, even if we wanted. They are people who use generalities to promise us the moon so we'll elect them to either stay in that world or be elevated into it, who upon arrival manage to conveniently forget all but the most inescapable promises they've made, their primary function being to stay where they are for the rest of their lives.

Rubio *has* changed from his original persona to his current one, which is why I quipped about him having been assimilated so quickly. Once a distinctive firebrand that showed great promise for many, the assimilation into that upper crust of power, privilege, and protection has changed him - not [yet] a full-on Locutus (nee Picard), nevertheless a transformation in progress.

I know I'm generalizing, and broad-brushing an entire faction - but the fact remains, these are the individuals and Parties over whom we go to war with one another - over associations that no longer actually exist, except perhaps philosophically, but even then usually in name only.

...meh - I guess I'm just feeling a little war-weary at the moment. Probably the fault of everyone outside my own powerful, privileged, and protected worldview. ;)

/digression
 
One thing is certain, it is too early to name a GOP nominee and Jeb has certainly can not be written off. Recent history suggests that the leader at this early date NEVER becomes the nominee.

Despite Trump's persistent lead, plenty of GOP elites persist in their belief that he will ultimately turn out to be a sideshow.

"It reminds me of four years ago -- I don't know who was leading the race at the time but it wasn't Romney. Eight years ago, I don't know who was leading the race at the time, but it wasn't John McCain," said Iowa Republican State Sen. Charles Schneider, who is supporting Jeb Bush. "It's still early ... and that's why it doesn't really concern me."
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iguanaman said:
One thing is certain, it is too early to name a GOP nominee and Jeb has certainly can not be written off. Recent history suggests that the leader at this early date NEVER becomes the nominee.
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One can only hope Hillary is tuning in...
 
iguanaman said:
She need not worry unless she is seeking the GOP nomination. They are the ones who play musical chairs with their candidates.
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Well if I recall correctly, Hillary was the loser of such a party musical chairs game back in 2008.
 
Rubio's Pro-Amnesty stance doesn't win him much support.
 
I'm voting for Rubio in the NH primary so I hope the prediction markets are right.
 
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