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Brokered election, is the fix in?

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mmitch401

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During an interview last week on Fox news a supporter of Romney and well connected RINO responded to Kelly's assertion that based on the polls we may well see an outsider as president.

His response left little room for doubt that Trump,Carson and Fiorina could not and will not be president. She questioned how do you know this. He went on to explain based on the number of candidates we have, no one will have enough votes, as a result we will have a brokered convention and I can assure you we have never and will never appointed someone who has not been elected in the past at the state and federal level.

He went on to explain that Trump, Fiorina, Carson and Rubio do not have operations in place to have their own delegates appointed. What does this mean? First we need to understand how a brokered convention works.

A brokered convention is a situation in United States politics in which there are not enough delegates won during the presidential primary and caucus elections for a single candidate to have a pre-existing majority, during the first official vote for a political party's presidential candidate at its nominating convention.

Once the first ballot, or vote, has occurred, and no candidate has a majority of the delegates' votes, the convention is then considered brokered; thereafter, the nomination is decided through a process of alternating political horse-trading, and additional re-votes.] In this circumstance, all regular delegates (who, previously, were pledged to the candidate who had won their respective state's primary or caucus election) are "released," and are able to switch their allegiance to a different candidate before the next round of balloting. It is hoped that this 'freedom' will result in a re-vote resulting in a clear majority of delegates for one candidate.



Now that you understand what a brokered convention is we should consider what happens once the first round has passed. If a candidate has his own people elected to represent him or her then they are only likely to change votes if the nominee instructs them to. In this case the front runners Trump, Fiorina, Carson and Rubio based on reports will not have there own delegates which translates to no loyalty after the first round has passed.



The elite in Washington have known this all along, remember when Bush said you may have to loss the primary in order to win the general election. This inferred that should Trump win he knew it would be a brokered convention and he would win the nomination anyway, that's called a back room deal.



Now what a lot of people don't know is they can pick anyone to run not just the candidates that ran. Romney has clearly stated he will not run but in a brokered convention they could abandon all and select him. If you think this is not possible look and see how Abraham Lincoln came to be president.



The fact that so many political insiders have from time to time made such definitive statements about what will happen and Bush being dumb enough to telegraph to the world the deal he had made if he was close enough to the leader. Tells me the fix is in and it is becoming clear the RINO's if we don't revolt will have their way. If Bush does not pull back up, mark my words they will pick Romney to run.
 
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Who could have known that conservatives, once those who laughed at the Democratic Party's 1972 hysterics over needing more democratic conventions and ending the time-honored tradition of a Party convention, would end up using the same rally cry for the GOP in 2012 and 2015.

And they accuse us of being RINOs. :lol:
 
Plagiarism
 
A brokered convention is a situation in United States politics in which there are not enough delegates won during the presidential primary and caucus elections for a single candidate to have a pre-existing majority, during the first official vote for a political party's presidential candidate at its nominating convention.

Once the first ballot, or vote, has occurred, and no candidate has a majority of the delegates' votes, the convention is then considered brokered; thereafter, the nomination is decided through a process of alternating political horse-trading, and additional re-votes.] In this circumstance, all regular delegates (who, previously, were pledged to the candidate who had won their respective state's primary or caucus election) are "released," and are able to switch their allegiance to a different candidate before the next round of balloting. It is hoped that this 'freedom' will result in a re-vote resulting in a clear majority of delegates for one candidate.

This section was taken from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention, the balance of it is all me.
 
ecofarm said:
Plagiarism
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With Walker out, Adelson is now down to Bush, Kasich, and Rubio.

SUPERDELEGATES will make the difference in this theoretical "brokered" convention.

Just as they did for Obama against Clinton in 2008.

SUPERDELEGATES in the GOP are RINOs.

Kasich/Rubio or Bush/Kasich.

Ohio and Florida are the two key states--as you know.

Which is why the staffs of Rubio and Bush are at each other's throats in your Florida--an early and winner-take-all primary .
 
A supporter of Romney who he didn't want to give out his name, huh? Imagine that!

The Romney supporter should check with Hugh Hewitt on the issues of the Unicorn. (Brokered Convention). Then he might have an actual clue about what it would be like and with whom.
 
MMC said:
A supporter of Romney who he didn't want to give out his name, huh? Imagine that!

The Romney supporter should check with Hugh Hewitt on the issues of the Unicorn. (Brokered Convention). Then he might have an actual clue about what it would be like and with whom.
Click to expand...

Let's see who has the most delegates after the SEC primaries.

Florida may very well determine the GOP nominee and the POTUS .
 
NIMBY said:
Let's see who has the most delegates after the SEC primaries.

Florida may very well determine the GOP nominee and the POTUS .
Click to expand...

One thing is for certain.....not to many are listening to any Romney supporters.

Romney can do the GOP a big favor.....by heading out to Pasture, and staying there chewing the Cow Gummi.
 
NIMBY said:
With Walker out, Adelson is now down to Bush, Kasich, and Rubio.

SUPERDELEGATES will make the difference in this theoretical "brokered" convention.

Just as they did for Obama against Clinton in 2008.

SUPERDELEGATES in the GOP are RINOs.

Kasich/Rubio or Bush/Kasich.

Ohio and Florida are the two key states--as you know.

Which is why the staffs of Rubio and Bush are at each other's throats in your Florida--an early and winner-take-all primary .
Click to expand...

You think Bush and Rubio are Republicans in Name Only? As opposed to what? When has any of these people been anything other than Republican? What is the criteria for meeting RINO? Wouldn't Trump, Fiorina, and Carson all be RINOs too? Throw Rand Paul into there too.
 
MMC said:
One thing is for certain.....not to many are listening to any Romney supporters.

Romney can do the GOP a big favor.....by heading out to Pasture, and staying there chewing the Cow Gummi.
Click to expand...

As Reagan did NOT do after he lost the nomination battle in 1976.

And Romney is still younger than RWR with a bit more money

Watch the Utah senate primary--Huntsman Sr. can't stand Lee .
 
Fiddytree said:
Who could have known that conservatives, once those who laughed at the Democratic Party's 1972 hysterics over needing more democratic conventions and ending the time-honored tradition of a Party convention, would end up using the same rally cry for the GOP in 2012 and 2015.

And they accuse us of being RINOs. :lol:
Click to expand...

I remember when the hope for a brokered convention came around on some CT boards because of the vast majority support Ron Paul was supposed to have had. Thanks to a a few childish rebels at the 2012 convention....:roll:
 
ModerateGOP said:
You think Bush and Rubio are Republicans in Name Only? As opposed to what? When has any of these people been anything other than Republican? What is the criteria for meeting RINO? Wouldn't Trump, Fiorina, and Carson all be RINOs too? Throw Rand Paul into there too.
Click to expand...

RINOs according to the OP and the fright-wing of the GOP who vote in the primaries and mid-term elections.

Please pay attention to what I said yer party members are saying--they are the ones who accuse Boehner/McConnell and Co. of being RINOs.

And don't look for an argument with me cuz yer party is so divided and wrecking my Nation--I'm not interested .
 
ModerateGOP said:
I remember when the hope for a brokered convention came around on some CT boards because of the vast majority support Ron Paul was supposed to have had. Thanks to a a few childish rebels at the 2012 convention....:roll:
Click to expand...

Rand Paul will have a better platform to run in 2020 when he's not running for two offices.

As a sitting Senator, he may very well run 3rd party in 2020, a long-time prediction of mine.

As well, DEMs will skip over Warren and begin looking at Gillibrand .
 
NIMBY said:
RINOs according to the OP and the fright-wing of the GOP who vote in the primaries and mid-term elections.

Please pay attention to what I said yer party members are saying--they are the ones who accuse Boehner/McConnell and Co. of being RINOs.

And don't look for an argument with me cuz yer party is so divided and wrecking my Nation--I'm not interested .
Click to expand...

So everyone who votes in a primary is a RINO?? WTF? I vote in primaries and I have always been a registered Republican. Your rants are making no sense. I just want a clear criteria how one becomes a RINO. It's clear you can't explain it tho and whine about getting into arguments on a political forum lol.
 
NIMBY said:
Rand Paul will have a better platform to run in 2020 when he's not running for two offices.

As a sitting Senator, he may very well run 3rd party in 2020, a long-time prediction of mine.

As well, DEMs will skip over Warren and begin looking at Gillibrand .
Click to expand...

Yes thanks for confirming he is a Republican in Name Only. Rand Paul will NEVER have a better platform. He is too kooky.
 
mmitch401 said:
Brokered election, is the fix in?
Click to expand...

This is inline with the supposed GOP[SUP]e[/SUP]'s splinter strategy to get Jeb elected in a brokered convention.

Hopefully Trump's participation throws a wrench into that plan.
 
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Shouldn't this thread be in the Conspiracy Theories Forum?

That said, Jeb Bush will be the Republican nominee and the next President of the United States. Anyone who's followed American primary politics in the past knows that it's a long process with a lot of twists and turns but one thing is an absolute given and that's that any surprise or "outsider" nominee who wins in Iowa and or New Hampshire is virtually never the nominee in the end. It's great fun and a media money maker to pimp these early states as being critical for the end result but they mean almost nothing. If the presumptive nominee wins in either of these two states, it simply solidifies the end result - if an outsider wins, it just makes for a few weeks/months more of media hype and then the presumptive nominee pulls ahead.

Guilliani was going to beat McCain 8 years ago until he tanked and Huckabee won Iowa and was going to beak McCain and then his cash dried up and he went nowhere and Cain was going to beat Romney until he tanked and Santorum won Iowa and was going to beat Romney 4 years ago, all based on early polls and media hype that meant nothing in the end. Both Guilliani and Cain had bigger leads than Trump at this time in their cycle and went nowhere. As the old saying goes, slow and steady wins the race.

And as for "the fix" being in, of course Republicans and those who live and die Republican politics, fund it and run it, will be instrumental in picking their nominee. Some jackass claiming to be an outsider who's going to fix politics doesn't get that base support in the end and that's the way it should be. You want to be an outsider, man up and be an outsider and run as an independent or try for a third party nomination. Better yet, get involved in the Republican party at the grass roots level and effect change from within - don't expect to mouth off and expect the apparatus to bow to you and support you.
 
mmitch401 said:
Now that you understand what a brokered convention is we should consider what happens once the first round has passed. If a candidate has his own people elected to represent him or her then they are only likely to change votes if the nominee instructs them to. In this case the front runners Trump, Fiorina, Carson and Rubio based on reports will not have there own delegates which translates to no loyalty after the first round has passed.
Click to expand...
Why would they have their own delegates? If they win the most primary votes, don't they get delegates?

The elite in Washington have known this all along, remember when Bush said you may have to loss the primary in order to win the general election. This inferred that should Trump win he knew it would be a brokered convention and he would win the nomination anyway, that's called a back room deal.
Click to expand...
Who knew? Trump? Or this Romney-ite interviewee?

Tells me the fix is in and it is becoming clear the RINO's if we don't revolt will have their way.
Click to expand...
And what form would that revolt take? What are you suggesting 'we' should do about it?
 
mmitch401 said:
During an interview last week on Fox news a supporter of Romney and well connected RINO responded to Kelly's assertion that based on the polls we may well see an outsider as president.

His response left little room for doubt that Trump,Carson and Fiorina could not and will not be president. She questioned how do you know this. He went on to explain based on the number of candidates we have, no one will have enough votes, as a result we will have a brokered convention and I can assure you we have never and will never appointed someone who has not been elected in the past at the state and federal level.

He went on to explain that Trump, Fiorina, Carson and Rubio do not have operations in place to have their own delegates appointed. What does this mean? First we need to understand how a brokered convention works.

A brokered convention is a situation in United States politics in which there are not enough delegates won during the presidential primary and caucus elections for a single candidate to have a pre-existing majority, during the first official vote for a political party's presidential candidate at its nominating convention.

Once the first ballot, or vote, has occurred, and no candidate has a majority of the delegates' votes, the convention is then considered brokered; thereafter, the nomination is decided through a process of alternating political horse-trading, and additional re-votes.] In this circumstance, all regular delegates (who, previously, were pledged to the candidate who had won their respective state's primary or caucus election) are "released," and are able to switch their allegiance to a different candidate before the next round of balloting. It is hoped that this 'freedom' will result in a re-vote resulting in a clear majority of delegates for one candidate.



Now that you understand what a brokered convention is we should consider what happens once the first round has passed. If a candidate has his own people elected to represent him or her then they are only likely to change votes if the nominee instructs them to. In this case the front runners Trump, Fiorina, Carson and Rubio based on reports will not have there own delegates which translates to no loyalty after the first round has passed.



The elite in Washington have known this all along, remember when Bush said you may have to loss the primary in order to win the general election. This inferred that should Trump win he knew it would be a brokered convention and he would win the nomination anyway, that's called a back room deal.



Now what a lot of people don't know is they can pick anyone to run not just the candidates that ran. Romney has clearly stated he will not run but in a brokered convention they could abandon all and select him. If you think this is not possible look and see how Abraham Lincoln came to be president.



The fact that so many political insiders have from time to time made such definitive statements about what will happen and Bush being dumb enough to telegraph to the world the deal he had made if he was close enough to the leader. Tells me the fix is in and it is becoming clear the RINO's if we don't revolt will have their way. If Bush does not pull back up, mark my words they will pick Romney to run.
Click to expand...

I'm really sorry to hear someone say that. However, I doubt there will be more than 3 or 4 republican candidates before the primary elections. It is up to the party to convince more of these people to drop out.
 
CanadaJohn said:
Shouldn't this thread be in the Conspiracy Theories Forum?
Click to expand...
No.
Besides the rest of your post basically acknowledging that it isn't a conspiracy but the norm, others see what is going on.

Excon said:
Most folks do not understand the impetus behind the number of Republican candidates.

Rush Limbaugh recently caught on.


Donors Turn Their Lonely Eyes to Mitt


[…]

[…] They’re turning to Mitt Romney. Now, what does that tell you? It’s more than what’s obvious to you. It tells you that as far as the Republican Party officialdom, the RNC, the establishment, whatever you want to call them, those candidates are up there not to really win. They’re up there to split the anti-Bush vote.

They’re up there to soak up all of the money Bush doesn’t get, and then they are there to drop out eventually when they don’t do well, when they can’t raise enough money because all of it goes to Jeb because that’s the original strategy. Bush is gonna soak up all the money, making it impossible for the others to run.

This was the strategy before Trump got in. And the Republican establishment actually hoped for and wanted a lot of candidates. For example, I think Lindsey Graham announcing was strictly Republican Party tactics. Lindsey Graham knows he’s not gonna be elected. Lindsey Graham knows he’s not gonna be nominated. But in South Carolina he could do something. He could help siphon some money away from Bush.

See, the point is you’ve got Bush, the establishment guy, and you’ve got some junior establishment guys up there. The junior establishment guys are all there to protect Jeb by taking money and votes away from the others who are not part of this, the Carsons, the Scott Walkers, Christies. […]

[…] ​

Donors Turn Their Lonely Eyes to Mitt​
Click to expand...


CanadaJohn said:
That said, Jeb Bush will be the Republican nominee and the next President of the United States. Anyone who's followed American primary politics in the past knows that it's a long process with a lot of twists and turns but one thing is an absolute given and that's that any surprise or "outsider" nominee who wins in Iowa and or New Hampshire is virtually never the nominee in the end. It's great fun and a media money maker to pimp these early states as being critical for the end result but they mean almost nothing. If the presumptive nominee wins in either of these two states, it simply solidifies the end result - if an outsider wins, it just makes for a few weeks/months more of media hype and then the presumptive nominee pulls ahead.

Guilliani was going to beat McCain 8 years ago until he tanked and Huckabee won Iowa and was going to beak McCain and then his cash dried up and he went nowhere and Cain was going to beat Romney until he tanked and Santorum won Iowa and was going to beat Romney 4 years ago, all based on early polls and media hype that meant nothing in the end. Both Guilliani and Cain had bigger leads than Trump at this time in their cycle and went nowhere. As the old saying goes, slow and steady wins the race.

And as for "the fix" being in, of course Republicans and those who live and die Republican politics, fund it and run it, will be instrumental in picking their nominee. Some jackass claiming to be an outsider who's going to fix politics doesn't get that base support in the end and that's the way it should be. You want to be an outsider, man up and be an outsider and run as an independent or try for a third party nomination. Better yet, get involved in the Republican party at the grass roots level and effect change from within - don't expect to mouth off and expect the apparatus to bow to you and support you.
Click to expand...
Well, we are at a point of culmination from all those previous election cycles. It would seem the Republican rule change and the supposed splinter strategy appears to be to get the low polling Jeb elected. Trump disrupts that plan and he may have just enough support to pull it off once the the non-establishment outliers withdraw.
As for polling, that is too early to tell.

Unless Trump has poor advisers, or in it for another reason, I doubt he is involved to lose.
 
Excon said:
No.
Besides the rest of your post basically acknowledging that it isn't a conspiracy but the norm, others see what is going on.

​


Well, we are at a point of culmination from all those previous election cycles. It would seem the Republican rule change and the supposed splinter strategy appears to be to get the low polling Jeb elected. Trump disrupts that plan and he may have just enough support to pull it off once the the non-establishment outliers withdraw.
As for polling, that is too early to tell.

Unless Trump has poor advisers, or in it for another reason, I doubt he is involved to lose.
Click to expand...

Well, we're already seeing that Trump's position is unsustainable as his poll numbers dive and a recent poll has him 7 points behind Carson who is, as in other past cycles, the latest flavour of the month for those who are on the outside looking in. It always happens, every cycle - some "new face" gets the hangers on excited for a couple of weeks/months and then the real party faithful take over and the serious business of picking a nominee begins.

In 19 months from now people will be speculating on who will be Jeb Bush's running mate and who will be Clinton or Biden's running mate and then, 20 months from now, we'll be discussing the general election match up and debates, etc. and Trump and Carson and Bernie Sanders, etc. will all be a distant memory and just a few others added to the scrap heap that is the norm in this business.
 
CanadaJohn said:
Well, we're already seeing that Trump's position is unsustainable as his poll numbers dive and a recent poll has him 7 points behind Carson who is, as in other past cycles, the latest flavour of the month for those who are on the outside looking in.
Click to expand...
7 points behind Carson? Are you sure it isn't 7 points behind Trump?


Carson was almost tied with Trump in one poll only.

Current polling doesn't reflect what you suggest, especially averages of the polls.

I posted the following in response to the poll showing Carson was disadvantaged by 1 point to Trump.

Excon said:
The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted Sept. 20-24, mostly after Scott Walker dropped his candidacy. Those surveyed included 256 Democratic voters (which had a margin of error of plus-minus 6.1 percentage points) and 230 GOP primary voters (plus-minus 6.5 percentage points).​

Such a large margin of error pretty much makes polls like this unreliable.


Regardless.

It is too early to be putting any trust in single Polls, especially as there will always be another showing different numbers.
For example.
Here is a poll of 1,543 registered voters released the following day after the initial release of the one you provided.

Morning Consult

Trump    30%
Carson   15%
Bush        10%
Rubio     09%
Fiorina   09%
Cruz         05%​
Poll: Biden Broadly Favorable, But Clinton Still Leads​

You can rest assured that there will be another poll coming along that will show different numbers from this one as well.



Maybe aggregate numbers should be reviewed until we are closer to the primaries?

Huffingtonpost
2016 National Republican Primary

Trump    26.8%
Carson   16.3%
Fiorina   09.5%
Bush      09.0%
Rubio     08.4%
Cruz         05.6%​
2016 National Republican Primary​


Real Clear Politics
2016 Republican Presidential Nomination

Trump    23.4%
Carson   17.0%
Fiorina    11.6%
Rubio      09.6%
Bush       09.2%
Cruz       06.2%​
2016 Republican Presidential Nomination​



Reuters | Monthly average
Possible Republican presidential candidates in 2016

Trump        27.1%
Carson        10.2%
Bush         08.1%
Huckabee 04.0%
Cruz          03.7%
Fiorina       03.5%​
Possible Republican presidential candidates in 2016​


Reuters | (5-day rolling)
Possible Republican presidential candidates in 2016

Trump    26.3%
Carson   11.4%
Bush      09.4%
Fiorina   07.4%
Cruz         04.1%​
Possible Republican presidential candidates in 2016​
Click to expand...


Recent

Pew Research Poll.
Oct 2[SUP]nd[/SUP]

Trump    25%
Carson   16%
Fiorina   08%
Cruz         06%
Bush      04%​
Contrasting Partisan Perspectives on Campaign 2016


Reuters | August 8th, 2015 to October 2nd, 2015 (5-day rolling)

Trump    28.8%
Carson    08.5%
Bush      06.8%
Fiorina   06.4%
Cruz         04.5%
Rubio​
Possible Republican presidential candidates in 2016


OAN/Gravis Polling Oct 2[SUP]nd[/SUP]
(linked image)


Continued below.
 
And as previously provided.

Excon said:
In an election for President of the United States, today, Labor Day, business provocateur Donald Trump narrowly defeats Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Al Gore, in head-to-head matchups, according to nationwide polling conducted by SurveyUSA.

Today it's:

* Trump 45%, Clinton 40%. (There is a 20-point Gender Gap; Trump leads by 18 points among seniors.)
* Trump 44%, Sanders 40%. (Trump leads by 10 among independents and by 6 among moderates.)
* Trump 44%, Biden 42%. (Trump leads by 10 among the best educated; Biden leads by 17 among the least educated.)
* Trump 44%, Gore 41%. (Trump leads by 12 among men and by 18 among voters age 50+.)​

Among a subset of registered voters who tell SurveyUSA that they pay "a lot" of attention to politics, the scale tilts to the right: Today it's:

* Trump 54%, Clinton 36%.
* Trump 53%, Sanders 39%.
* Trump 53%, Biden 37%.
* Trump 54%, Gore 36%.​


Labor Day Look at the 2016 General Election For President: Every Democrat Trails Trump, Though Narrowly:
Click to expand...


CanadaJohn said:
It always happens, every cycle - some "new face" gets the hangers on excited for a couple of weeks/months and then the real party faithful take over and the serious business of picking a nominee begins.
Click to expand...
As I keep saying, it is too early to tell.


CanadaJohn said:
In 19 months from now people will be speculating on who will be Jeb Bush's running mate and who will be Clinton or Biden's running mate and then, 20 months from now, we'll be discussing the general election match up and debates, etc. and Trump and Carson and Bernie Sanders, etc. will all be a distant memory and just a few others added to the scrap heap that is the norm in this business.
Click to expand...
Jeb doesn't have the support.
He only gets the nomination if the splinter strategy is true and works in spite of Trump disrupting that supposed plan.

The GOP[SUP]e[/SUP] is working hard against Trump because he disrupts that plan.

Are you aware that Rubio's super PAC gave Fiorina $500,000?




Excon said:
Excon said:
trump-patriot.png
Click to expand...
“We Shall Overcomb.”
Click to expand...
 
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