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Dow over 17,000. thank you again President Obama. [W:1017, 2344]

The DOW is 17,090.

This thread was created just over 2 years ago.p to celebrate the DOW passing 17,000.

So in two years, the DOW has done squat.


Thank you Obama?
 
DA60 said:
The DOW is 17,090.

This thread was created just over 2 years ago.p to celebrate the DOW passing 17,000.

So in two years, the DOW has done squat.


Thank you Obama?
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That's trolling, right?
 
Looks like the Brexit panic is over.

And with all the rumours of central bank interventions...it's party time for the markets.

Cheap money is king.
 
Cardinal said:
That's trolling, right?
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So giving credit to Obama when the market goes up is not trolling to you?

But giving credit to Obama when the market goes down IS trolling to you?

Okaaaaaaay....and hypocritical.

Noted.


Have a nice day.
 
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DA60 said:
So giving credit to Obama when the market goes up is not trolling to you?

But giving credit to Obama when the market goes down IS trolling to you?

Okaaaaaaay....and hypocritical.

Noted.

Have a nice day.
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Oh Da, we’ve gone over this. You’ve never given President Obama credit for the 11,500 point rise in the DOW so yes its trolling that you only give him credit when it goes down to only 10,500 over the Bush low. And as you hilariously whine about the DOW being flat I must remind you that predicted collapse when QE ended. Why haven’t you thanked President Obama for the market not collapsing?
 
The DOW closed up over 18,200 yesterday...near a record high.

If you think this is because of great fundamentals...forget it.

It's primarily because of the prospect of more government/central bank stimulus as all the major economies have decided that their centrals banks are going to come to the rescue...again. Japan already started which is why the Nikkei is booming.

And in case you were to think it was do to fundamentals? If it were, precious metals would be getting killed (as good fundamentals means weak PM's). But they were up again yesterday because more stimulus means more inflation/instability and that bodes well for PM's.


As for the Friday jobs report? It looks better on the surface then it was. The U-3 rose by 0.2% and despite the 287,000 (supposed) establishment number...the household survey number (which the U-3 is based on) was a paltry 67,000. While the number of additional employed Americans since February (according to the household survey) is a meagre 23,000 total.

Table A-9. Selected employment indicators

The stagnation is continuing. If it wasn't, no one would be talking about yet another round of government/central bank stimulus.
 
DA60 said:
But they were up again yesterday because more stimulus means more inflation/instability and that bodes well for PM's.
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Oh gawd, are you STILL on this? When someone keeps going on about "fundamentals", ignoring that we are still in a ZLB/lower demand "fundamental" where the effect of stimulus is not, has not caused inflation over the last 6 years, they are just tone deaf.


The stagnation is continuing. If it wasn't, no one would be talking about yet another round of government/central bank stimulus.
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Of course "stagnation" exists, which causes me to again ask, how in the world can you keep claiming stimulus will cause inflation? yer contradicting yourself.....again.
 
DA60 said:
The DOW closed up over 18,200 yesterday...near a record high.

If you think this is because of great fundamentals...forget it.

It's primarily because of the prospect of more government/central bank stimulus as all the major economies have decided that their centrals banks are going to come to the rescue...again. Japan already started which is why the Nikkei is booming.

And in case you were to think it was do to fundamentals? If it were, precious metals would be getting killed (as good fundamentals means weak PM's). But they were up again yesterday because more stimulus means more inflation/instability and that bodes well for PM's.


As for the Friday jobs report? It looks better on the surface then it was. The U-3 rose by 0.2% and despite the 287,000 (supposed) establishment number...the household survey number (which the U-3 is based on) was a paltry 67,000. While the number of additional employed Americans since February (according to the household survey) is a meagre 23,000 total.

Table A-9. Selected employment indicators

The stagnation is continuing. If it wasn't, no one would be talking about yet another round of government/central bank stimulus.
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BTW, do not forget that this latest jobs report showed that May saw only 11,000(?!?) more employed in the establishment survey.

I would be shocked if the June number (+287,000) is not revised heavily downwards within a few months.

And what effect the 'magical' Birth/Death model had on the latest numbers is anyone's guess (since it only - to my knowledge - effects the seasonally unadjusted number while the released number is the seasonally adjusted one). But it must have been positive since the seasonally unadjusted number was up 92,000 people that the BLS just arbitrarily slaps on based on some 'model' they use.
 
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DA60 said:
BTW, do not forget that this latest jobs report showed that May saw only 11,000(?!?) more employed in the establishment survey.

I would be shocked if the June number (+287,000) is not revised heavily downwards within a few months.

And what effect the 'magical' Birth/Death model had on the latest numbers is anyone's guess (since it only - to my knowledge - effects the seasonally unadjusted number while the released number is the seasonally adjusted one).
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What is "magical" about the birth/death model? It's pretty straightforward. Do you think it would be more accurate to assume the number of businesses stays static and then change everything with the benchmark? Please explain what you think would be more accurate.

But it must have been positive since the seasonally unadjusted number was up 92,000 people that the BLS just arbitrarily slaps on based on some 'model' they use.
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Arbitrary:
  1. subject to individual will or judgment without restriction; contingent solely upon one's discretion:
  2. decided by a judge or arbiter rather than by a law or statute.
  3. having unlimited power; uncontrolled or unrestricted by law; despotic; tyrannical:
  4. capricious; unreasonable; unsupported
Is it really your claim that birth/death adjustments are arbitrary? Why?

As for May June changes, the preliminary results showed a change in Nonfarm payroll jobs of +590,000. 92,000 were then added from the birth/death model, for a total change of +682,000. But because hiring always goes up in June, that 682,000 is misleading. Adjusting for the normal June increase, the change is +287,000.

Now, if you have questions, concerns, alternative measures you think would be more useful, please explain and we can discuss.
But if you're just going to insult me, or claim corruption without any backing evidence.....don't bother.
 
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Btw, unless the Fed does come out with more stimulus (QE/NIRP), this latest DOW spurt will not last and the DOW will be back down around 17,000-17,500 - guaranteed.

Not sure when it will happen.

But with the lousy fundamentals of this economy - it WILL happen. Anyone who truly understands macroeconomics today and has an open mind will know that as well probably.

On the flip side, anyone who thinks the American economy is even remotely close to being strong and is not being propped up by the government/Fed is TOTALLY clueless on the subject.
 
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DA60 said:
Btw, unless the Fed does come out with more stimulus (QE/NIRP), this latest DOW spurt will not last and the DOW will be back down around 17,000-17,500 - guaranteed.

Not sure when it will happen.

But with the lousy fundamentals of this economy - it WILL happen. Anyone who truly understands macroeconomics today and has an open mind will know that as well probably.

On the flip side, anyone who thinks the American economy is even remotely close to being strong and is not being propped up by the government/Fed is TOTALLY clueless on the subject.
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I feel like Dr. Frasier Crane every time I hear you try to explain why every bit of good economic news is actually bad.
 
It's probably getting close to about the time for a correction.

The fundamentals suck and there is no actual, additional government/central bank stimulation yet - just rumours and assurances.

So this post Brexit/way overhyped jobs report/more stimulus promise high might be starting to run out of gas.

It will...it has to. Balloons cannot keep climbing forever on just hot air...nor can stock markets.
 
While I'll willingly admit that President Obama has severely damaged America, his failure to wreak total destruction is no cause to cheer. I suppose some on the left can't remember the liberal housing bubble that burst? No, no, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Presidents Carter and Clinton, Rep. Barney Frank. Not ringing any bells.

A correction is clearly in the works and it can be severe.
 
Patrickt said:
While I'll willingly admit that President Obama has severely damaged America, his failure to wreak total destruction is no cause to cheer. I suppose some on the left can't remember the liberal housing bubble that burst? No, no, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Presidents Carter and Clinton, Rep. Barney Frank. Not ringing any bells.

A correction is clearly in the works and it can be severe.
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thank you pat. it took a lot of courage for you to willingly admit that. Most conservatives are afraid to admit they believe every lying conservative narrative. As far as the lying conservative narrative goes that blames everybody but Bush for the Bush Mortgage Bubble, here's a nice thread for you to read. You'll notice in the very first post you learn that the Bush Mortgage Bubble started late 2004. and if you pay real close attention, you'll see its Bush telling you it started late 2004

Vern said:
I still see alot of misconceptions about the Bush Mortgage Bubble and the Bush policies that encouraged, funde and protected it so I thought I would start an FAQ section. Since the resulting destruction of the housing and financial sector are still a drag on the economy today, it seems relevent

Q When did the Bush Mortgage Bubble start?

A The general timeframe is it started late 2004.

From Bush’s President’s Working Group on Financial Markets October 2008

“The Presidents Working Group’s March policy statement acknowledged that turmoil in financial markets clearly was triggered by a dramatic weakening of underwriting standards for U.S. subprime mortgages, beginning in late 2004 and extending into 2007.”
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/fin-mkts/Documents/q4progress update.pdf
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Vern said:
thank you pat. it took a lot of courage for you to willingly admit that. Most conservatives are afraid to admit they believe every lying conservative narrative. As far as the lying conservative narrative goes that blames everybody but Bush for the Bush Mortgage Bubble, here's a nice thread for you to read. You'll notice in the very first post you learn that the Bush Mortgage Bubble started late 2004. and if you pay real close attention, you'll see its Bush telling you it started late 2004
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Since liberals can't ever go with the truth they have to have scapegoats handy. Sorry, you have to put your faith in George Bush. It must be humiliating. The Community Reinvestment Act, which, of course, had nothing to do with community reinvestment, was passed in 1977. That was when, let's see, oh, right, President Jimmy Carter was in the White House and both houses of Congress belonged to the liberals. It got worse under President Clinton and finally blew up under Bush. It's amazing how often liberals court disaster and then cheer when they manage to skip out of office and pretend they had nothing to do with it.

No, Sen. Dodd and Rep. Barney Frank weren't even there. The government coercing banks into making bad loans had nothing to do with it. People buy bad mortgages because the idiot liberals were putting the taxpayers on the hook had nothing to do with it either.

It's nonsense like what you preach that brought us 2016 with two losers running for president representing the two major parties.
 
Patrickt said:
Since liberals can't ever go with the truth they have to have scapegoats handy. Sorry, you have to put your faith in George Bush. It must be humiliating. The Community Reinvestment Act, which, of course, had nothing to do with community reinvestment, was passed in 1977. That was when, let's see, oh, right, President Jimmy Carter was in the White House and both houses of Congress belonged to the liberals. It got worse under President Clinton and finally blew up under Bush. It's amazing how often liberals court disaster and then cheer when they manage to skip out of office and pretend they had nothing to do with it.

No, Sen. Dodd and Rep. Barney Frank weren't even there. The government coercing banks into making bad loans had nothing to do with it. People buy bad mortgages because the idiot liberals were putting the taxpayers on the hook had nothing to do with it either.

It's nonsense like what you preach that brought us 2016 with two losers running for president representing the two major parties.
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er uh Pat, I didn't ask you for the silly and factless narrative you wish to believe concerning the Bush Mortgage Bubble. I directed you to a thread where you can learn the facts. The first fact you learn is the Bush Mortgage Bubble started late 2004. That one fact alone shreds your narrative Please go to the thread and don't stop until you get to the part where Bush preempted all state laws against predatory lending. Then come back and we can discuss the actual facts. This is after all a debate forum not a chat room.
 
The market's keep climbing and the VIX keeps dropping - it just went below 12. And there is virtually no positive data to support it.

Earnings are alright. But they mean little in this day of huge buybacks and ultra low interest loans. It's year-over-year sales/earnings that count...and they are nothing special...have been for years.

This can continue...but it cannot continue for long.
 
Patrickt said:
Since liberals can't ever go with the truth they have to have scapegoats handy. Sorry, you have to put your faith in George Bush. It must be humiliating. The Community Reinvestment Act, which, of course, had nothing to do with community reinvestment, was passed in 1977. That was when, let's see, oh, right, President Jimmy Carter was in the White House and both houses of Congress belonged to the liberals. It got worse under President Clinton and finally blew up under Bush. It's amazing how often liberals court disaster and then cheer when they manage to skip out of office and pretend they had nothing to do with it.

No, Sen. Dodd and Rep. Barney Frank weren't even there. The government coercing banks into making bad loans had nothing to do with it. People buy bad mortgages because the idiot liberals were putting the taxpayers on the hook had nothing to do with it either.

It's nonsense like what you preach that brought us 2016 with two losers running for president representing the two major parties.
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Um, CRA lending was a tiny fraction of total mortgage issuance......and their default level was nearly insignificant. The CRA meme died a very long time ago.
 
Despite the DOW's massive gains lately, it has grown barely 4.5% over this past year...despite near zero rates and hundreds of billions of QE (yes, QE still goes on - they just don't call it that anymore).

While gold has grown over 37% during the last 12 months.

Anytime gold is outpacing the DOW by eight times..you know things are not good.


Thank you Obama?
 
Silver hit 2 year high today while gold is a few cents away from a 2 1/3 year high.

While the DOW is down for the seventh day in a row - though granted, the drops have been generally very small.

But this does not bode well...I assume if it keeps up the central banks will hint at 'no more rate rises this year' or something else to try and con the market's back up.
 
DA60 said:
Silver hit 2 year high today while gold is a few cents away from a 2 1/3 year high.

While the DOW is down for the seventh day in a row - though granted, the drops have been generally very small.

But this does not bode well...I assume if it keeps up the central banks will hint at 'no more rate rises this year' or something else to try and con the market's back up.
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I've seen nothing but the fed hinting at rate hikes with the only question being when. Is this another of those things you've imagined but posted as fact? you do that a lot.
 
The DOW is now exactly 31.74 points higher now then it was on Boxing Day...2014!!!

Told ya...stagnation continues.

And this huge drop today was only due to a rumor that the Fed will raise rates soon. Just think what happens if they actually did it? Just think what happens if they don't?

The economy is a stagnant mess...totally dependent on the Fed.

And stuck with near record low interest rates that were supposed to be short term ONLY emergency measures over 8 years ago.


Thank you Obama.
 
Re: Dow over 17,000. thank you again President Obama.

Ockham said:
If you can't debate, scream racist! Alinsky would be proud!
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What does alinksy have to do with anything you just said?
 
Re: Dow over 17,000. thank you again President Obama.

Today, the DOW dropped below what it closed at on Boxing Day, 2014.

So...in almost two years, the DOW has done squat.

Thank you Obama (and the Fed)?
 
Vern said:
Holy cow. the greatest bull market in history continues on. I have to admit, even I’m a bit shocked. I knew President Obama’s economic policies were good but I didn’t know they were this good. I guess I could give republicans some credit because their constant lies about President Obama and the economy probably made him more determined.

Remember the laughable republican predictions of “hyperinflation, dollar collapse, market to zero, dogs and cats living together” if we didn’t cut spending immediately after (and only after) 1/20/2009? Who but a few delusional cons could argue that if we listened to republicans, we would officially be a third world country. Again, thank President Obama.
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Funny, you are hanging your hat on a stock bubble economy blip. Sad, but funny.
 
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