How Does McCain Win?

the makeout hobo · 10-03-08, 05:23 PM

Yesterday, John McCain pulled his staff out of Michigan, effectively ceding it to Barack Obama. Let's look towards November 4th. I think we can all agree that all of the Kerry states with the exception of New Hampshire are a lock for Obama. That puts Obama at 248 votes. I think we can also all agree that, looking at polling, Iowa and New Mexico are more or less safely blue this year. That puts obama at 260, just 9 votes away from a tie, and 10 votes away from victory.

Then let's look at the rest of the map. Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and New Hampshire all look like there's at least a decent possibility of Obama winning them. Winning any one of these states (except NH and NV, where he needs both of them) gives Obama a winning map. That's 9 states McCain needs to hold. All nine of them, realistically.

My question is: How does McCain win with this map? I just don't see it.

Iriemon · 10-03-08, 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the makeout hobo

Yesterday, John McCain pulled his staff out of Michigan, effectively ceding it to Barack Obama. Let's look towards November 4th. I think we can all agree that all of the Kerry states with the exception of New Hampshire are a lock for Obama. That puts Obama at 248 votes. I think we can also all agree that, looking at polling, Iowa and New Mexico are more or less safely blue this year. That puts obama at 260, just 9 votes away from a tie, and 10 votes away from victory.

Then let's look at the rest of the map. Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and New Hampshire all look like there's at least a decent possibility of Obama winning them. Winning any one of these states (except NH and NV, where he needs both of them) gives Obama a winning map. That's 9 states McCain needs to hold. All nine of them, realistically.

My question is: How does McCain win with this map? I just don't see it.

A lot can happen in 4 weeks.

Yayasmom · 10-03-08, 05:25 PM

October surprise?

shuamort · 10-03-08, 05:26 PM

Polling is nice but I don't put a lot of weight in it. Even exit-polling has proven to be faulty (remember Florida in 2000?). So, I'll just wait and see and that would be how McCain could win, by votes on election day.

StandUpChuck · 10-03-08, 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iriemon

A lot can happen in 4 weeks.

That's where I stand too, so it surprised me that McCain is abandoning Michigan. And when I say surprised I really mean pissed off.

the makeout hobo · 10-03-08, 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shuamort

Polling is nice but I don't put a lot of weight in it. Even exit-polling has proven to be faulty (remember Florida in 2000?). So, I'll just wait and see and that would be how McCain could win, by votes on election day.

Exit polling is actually more faulty than most, due to the hurried nature they're taken in. But what states mentioned above do you see McCain winning to add up to 270? I'm curious in how you see him winning, not just whether or not he does.

Quote:

October surprise?

Like what?

the makeout hobo · 10-03-08, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by StandUpChuck

That's where I stand too, so it surprised me that McCain is abandoning Michigan. And when I say surprised I really mean pissed off.

And what do you see happening to change the race? We've already gotten through half the debates without anything changing, and I don't think we're going to have a game changer at the next two.

Yayasmom · 10-03-08, 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the makeout hobo

Like what?

I have no clue, that's why it would be a surprise!

StandUpChuck · 10-03-08, 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the makeout hobo

And what do you see happening to change the race? We've already gotten through half the debates without anything changing, and I don't think we're going to have a game changer at the next two.

I think he's making a play for smaller EC states. Obama won't see that coming.

the makeout hobo · 10-03-08, 05:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by StandUpChuck

I think he's making a play for smaller EC states. Obama won't see that coming.

Which states are you referring to?