How Does McCain Win? - Page 2

jallman · 10-03-08, 05:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the makeout hobo

Yesterday, John McCain pulled his staff out of Michigan, effectively ceding it to Barack Obama. Let's look towards November 4th. I think we can all agree that all of the Kerry states with the exception of New Hampshire are a lock for Obama. That puts Obama at 248 votes. I think we can also all agree that, looking at polling, Iowa and New Mexico are more or less safely blue this year. That puts obama at 260, just 9 votes away from a tie, and 10 votes away from victory.

Then let's look at the rest of the map. Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and New Hampshire all look like there's at least a decent possibility of Obama winning them. Winning any one of these states (except NH and NV, where he needs both of them) gives Obama a winning map. That's 9 states McCain needs to hold. All nine of them, realistically.

My question is: How does McCain win with this map? I just don't see it.

Judging from past elections, I guess McCain just has to sit back and wait for the dems to lose the election as opposed to actually needing to win it.

Frolicking Dinosaurs · 10-03-08, 05:40 PM

While I never say never.... it would take a major negative revelation about Obama to allow McCain to win at this point. I believe if something of that magnitude were available to the McCain camp, they would have already used it. McCain lost this one - fair and square - by failing to stick to the moderate positions that set him apart from the neo-cons (and made him so popular in 2000) and by picking the cute, but vacuous Caribou Barbie as his running mate.

shuamort · 10-03-08, 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the makeout hobo

Exit polling is actually more faulty than most, due to the hurried nature they're taken in. But what states mentioned above do you see McCain winning to add up to 270? I'm curious in how you see him winning, not just whether or not he does.

I actually don't see a map right now (I'm at work), but I'm assuming it's similar to the one at electoral-vote.com, right?

It states:
Obama 338 McCain 185 Ties 15

First off, McCain will mostly take North Carolina for 15 EVs
Florida and Ohio are floaters so that would be another 47 possible bringing him up to 247. Colorado and Nevada could stay red adding 14 and totalling 261. Throw in Virginia and he's up to 274.

So that's how I could see it happen. In 2004, those states went red.
North Carolina Bush 1,961,166 Kerry 1,525,849
Florida Bush 3,964,522 Kerry 3,583,544
OhioBush 2,858,727 Kerry 2,739,952
Colorado Bush 1,101,255 Kerry 1,001,732
Nevada Bush 418,690 Kerry 397,190
Virginia Bush 1,716,959 Kerry 1,454,742

the makeout hobo · 10-03-08, 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jallman

Judging from past elections, I guess McCain just has to sit back and wait for the dems to lose the election as opposed to actually needing to win it.

I doubt that'll happen. If anything so damning that it'd cost Obama the race was going to come to light, it would have came out by now, and if the Dems were going to lose by running a worse campaign, they would have run it by now. But that's not the case. Obama is winning the race, and has a map that favors him. There's no evidence to lead one to believe Obama is going to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, unless you know something I don't. "I really, really, really WANT McCain to win" doesn't count.

the makeout hobo · 10-03-08, 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shuamort

I actually don't see a map right now (I'm at work), but I'm assuming it's similar to the one at electoral-vote.com, right?

It states:
Obama 338 McCain 185 Ties 15

First off, McCain will mostly take North Carolina for 15 EVs
Florida and Ohio are floaters so that would be another 47 possible bringing him up to 247. Colorado and Nevada could stay red adding 14 and totalling 261. Throw in Virginia and he's up to 274.

So that's how I could see it happen. In 2004, those states went red.
North Carolina Bush 1,961,166 Kerry 1,525,849
Florida Bush 3,964,522 Kerry 3,583,544
OhioBush 2,858,727 Kerry 2,739,952
Colorado Bush 1,101,255 Kerry 1,001,732
Nevada Bush 418,690 Kerry 397,190
Virginia Bush 1,716,959 Kerry 1,454,742

So what you're saying is that mcCain is going to win every single state he's playing defense in (with the exception of the Bush states NM and IA, but McCain's effectively ceded those ones), right? That Obama isn't going to flip a single one of those states. Do you really think that's going to happen?

jallman · 10-03-08, 05:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the makeout hobo

I doubt that'll happen. If anything so damning that it'd cost Obama the race was going to come to light, it would have came out by now, and if the Dems were going to lose by running a worse campaign, they would have run it by now. But that's not the case. Obama is winning the race, and has a map that favors him. There's no evidence to lead one to believe Obama is going to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, unless you know something I don't. "I really, really, really WANT McCain to win" doesn't count.

It was called humor. Learn it, dude. Seriously.

shuamort · 10-03-08, 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the makeout hobo

So what you're saying is that mcCain is going to win every single state he's playing defense in (with the exception of the Bush states NM and IA, but McCain's effectively ceded those ones), right? That Obama isn't going to flip a single one of those states. Do you really think that's going to happen?

I remember watching the dancing back and forth in 2004. Check out the polling from 5/25/2004. Kerry was going to cream Bush 320 to 218. Ouch! Then go another month ahead to June 30th, Kerry 242 to Bush 269.. Now, let's go to October 3rd, 2004. Kerry 238 Bush 296. October 20th, Kerry pulls back ahead with 291 to Bush's 247. October 24th, it's a near tie with Kerry 253 and Bush 254. Kerry loses his slip for a couple days but rebounds on October 31st, Kerry 283 Bush 246. The election day is in sight. It's going to be November 2nd in just a couple days, how could that lead change?

In the end, it was Kerry 251 to Bush 286. And now you see why I give not much credence to the polling.

jallman · 10-03-08, 06:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shuamort

I remember watching the dancing back and forth in 2004. Check out the polling from 5/25/2004. Kerry was going to cream Bush 320 to 218. Ouch! Then go another month ahead to June 30th, Kerry 242 to Bush 269.. Now, let's go to October 3rd, 2004. Kerry 238 Bush 296. October 20th, Kerry pulls back ahead with 291 to Bush's 247. October 24th, it's a near tie with Kerry 253 and Bush 254. Kerry loses his slip for a couple days but rebounds on October 31st, Kerry 283 Bush 246. The election day is in sight. It's going to be November 2nd in just a couple days, how could that lead change?

In the end, it was Kerry 251 to Bush 286. And now you see why I give not much credence to the polling.

Awesome post!!!!

Kernel Sanders · 10-03-08, 06:22 PM

Obama has plenty of opportunity to **** this up, and I have full confidence that there will be at least one more move that could cost him the election by next month.

Furthermore, if you look at the 2004 Electoral-Vote graph, it gets extremely volatile as the election nears. The entire run-up seems to have zero impact on the final outcome

cascadian · 10-03-08, 06:46 PM

Nothing is written in stone yet, but I think we've seen a steady slip since the convention bump that's finally leveled off.

A lot of these electoral vote counts are relying on margins within polling error (1-3%). If the election was today I wouldn't expect all of the states to go Obama's way. But seeing even a marginal lead in places like Colorado should make McCain **** his pants.

I think McCain lost his chance to scare people away from Obama on the issue of experience. This is kind of a death blow, to his campaign strategy to date.

Also the economy is sitting front and center, this plays into Obama's hands in a big way and it's hard to see it fading away. That is with the exception of events that are out of McCain's hands.

He needs a new strategy, one which I have a hard time imagining right now. Now matter what tack his campaign takes, I'm betting it's going to be a big gamble in the McCain style.